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Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities.


ABSTRACT: While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance.

SUBMITTER: Chong KC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7904227 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities.

Chong Ka Chun KC   Ran Jinjun J   Lau Steven Yuk Fai SYF   Goggins William Bernard WB   Zhao Shi S   Wang Pin P   Tian Linwei L   Wang Maggie Haitian MH   Mohammad Kirran N KN   Wei Lai L   Xiong Xi X   Liu Hengyan H   Chan Paul Kay Sheung PKS   Wang Huwen H   Wang Yawen Y   Wang Jingxuan J  

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20210224 2


While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained th  ...[more]

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