Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prognostic model for adult patients with acute myeloid leukaemia.

ABSTRACT: Background: The high heterogeneity of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) reflected in the patient- and disease-related factors accounts for the unsatisfactory prognosis despite the introduction of novel therapeutic approaches and drugs in recent years.

Methods: In the development set (n = 412), parameters including age, hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, biallelic CEBPA mutations, DNMT3A mutations, FLT3-ITD/NPM1 status, and ELN cytogenetic risk status were identified as independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in the multivariable Cox regression analysis. A nomogram combining these predictors for individual risk estimation was established thereby.

Findings: The prognostic model demonstrated promising performance in the development cohort. The calibration plot, C-index (0.74), along with the 1-, 2- and 3-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, 0.76, 0.79, and 0.74, respectively) in the validation set (n = 238) substantiated the robustness of the model. In addition to stratifying young (age ? 60 years) and elderly patients (age > 60 years) into three and two risk groups with significant distinct outcomes, the prognostic model succeeded in distinguishing eligible candidates for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Interpretation: The prognostic model is capable of survival prediction, risk stratification and helping with therapeutic decision-making with the use of easily acquired variables in daily clinical routine.

Funding: This work was supported in part by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81770141), the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFE0202800), and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission-Gaofeng Clinical Medicine Grant Support (20161406).

SUBMITTER: Ma TT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7689519 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a prognostic model for adult patients with acute myeloid leukaemia.

Ma Ting-Ting TT Lin Xiao-Jing XJ Cheng Wen-Yan WY Xue Qing Q Wang Shi-Yang SY Liu Fu-Jia FJ Yan Han H Zhu Yong-Mei YM Shen Yang Y

EBioMedicine 20201122

<h4>Background</h4>The high heterogeneity of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) reflected in the patient- and disease-related factors accounts for the unsatisfactory prognosis despite the introduction of novel therapeutic approaches and drugs in recent years.<h4>Methods</h4>In the development set (n = 412), parameters including age, hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, biallelic CEBPA mutations, DNMT3A mutations, FLT3-ITD/NPM1 status, and ELN cytog ...[more]

PMID: 33232873

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Project description:Purpose: This study aimed to combine the clinical data of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database to obtain prognosis-related biomarkers, construct a prognostic risk model using long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) in AML and help patients with AML make clinical treatment decisions. Methods: We analysed the transcriptional group information of 151 patients with AML obtained from TCGA and extracted the expressions of lncRNAs. According to the mutation frequency, the patients were divided into the high mutation group (genomic unstable group, top 25% of mutation frequency) and low mutation group (genomic stable group, 25% after mutation frequency). The 'limma' R package was used to analyse the difference in lncRNA expressions between the two groups, and the "survival," "caret," and "glmnet" R packages were used to screen lncRNAs that are related to clinical prognosis. Subsequently, a prognosis-related risk model was constructed and verified through different methods. Results: According to the lncRNA expression data in TCGA, we found that seven lncRNAs (i.e. AL645608.6, LINC01436, AL645608.2, AC073534.2, LINC02593, AL512413.1, and AL645608.4) were highly correlated with the clinical prognosis of patients with AML, so we constructed a prognostic risk model of lncRNAs based on LINC01436, AC073534.2, and LINC02593. Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway analyses of differentially expressed lncRNA-related target genes were performed, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were created, the applicability of the model in children was assessed using the TARGET database and the model was externally verified using the GEO database. Furthermore, different expression patterns of lncRNAs were validated in various AML cell lines derived from Homo sapiens. Conclusions: We have established a lncRNA prognostic model that can predict the survival of patients with AML. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that this model distinguished survival differences between patients with high- and low-risk status. The ROC analysis confirmed this finding and showed that the model had high prediction accuracy. The Kaplan-Meier analysis of the clinical subgroups showed that this model can predict prognosis independent of clinicopathological factors. Therefore, the proposed prognostic lncRNA risk model can be used as an independent biomarker of AML.

Project description:Risk classification in pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (P-AML) is crucial for personalizing treatments. Thus, we aimed to establish a risk-stratification tool for P-AML patients and eventually guide individual treatment. A total of 256 P-AML patients with accredited mRNA-seq data from the TARGET database were divided into training and internal validation datasets. A gene-expression-based prognostic score was constructed for overall survival (OS), by using univariate Cox analysis, LASSO regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival, and multivariate Cox analysis. A P-AML-5G prognostic score bioinformatically derived from expression levels of 5 genes (ZNF775, RNFT1, CRNDE, COL23A1, and TTC38), clustered P-AML patients in training dataset into high-risk group (above optimal cut-off) with shorter OS, and low-risk group (below optimal cut-off) with longer OS (p < 0.0001). Meanwhile, similar results were obtained in internal validation dataset (p = 0.005), combination dataset (p < 0.001), two treatment sub-groups (p < 0.05), intermediate-risk group defined with the Children's Oncology Group (COG) (p < 0.05) and an external Japanese P-AML dataset (p = 0.005). The model was further validated in the COG study AAML1031(p = 0.001), and based on transcriptomic analysis of 943 pediatric patients and 70 normal bone marrow samples from this dataset, two genes in the model demonstrated significant differential expression between the groups [all log2(foldchange) > 3, p < 0.001]. Independent of other prognostic factors, the P-AML-5G groups presented the highest concordance-index values in training dataset, chemo-therapy only treatment subgroups of the training and internal validation datasets, and whole genome-sequencing subgroup of the combined dataset, outperforming two Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk stratification systems, 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) risk classification tool and two leukemic stem cell expression-based models. The 5-gene prognostic model generated by a single assay can further refine the current COG risk stratification system that relies on numerous tests and may have the potential for the risk judgment and identification of the high-risk pediatric AML patients receiving chemo-therapy only treatment.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prognostic model for adult patients with acute myeloid leukaemia.

Publications

Development and validation of a prognostic model for adult patients with acute myeloid leukaemia.

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