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Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head in Chinese population.

ABSTRACT: Although corticosteroids and alcohol are two major risk factors for nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head (NONFH), the effects of other factors have rarely been studied, thereby making early diagnosis and treatment of NONFH difficult. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to NONFH, but patients with alcohol- and steroid-related NONFH are not at all taken into account in this study. A training cohort of 790 patients (n?=?434, NONFH; n?=?356, femoral neck fractures [non-NONFH]) diagnosed in our hospital from January 2011 to December 2016 was used for model development. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression model was used for date dimension reduction and optimal predictor selection. A predictive model was developed from univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Performance characterisation of the resulting nomogram included calibration, discriminatory ability, and clinical usefulness. After internal validation, the nomogram was further evaluated in a separate cohort of 300 consecutive patients included between January 2017 and December 2018. The simple prediction nomogram included five predictors from univariate and multivariate analyses, including gender, total cholesterol levels, triglyceride levels, white blood cell count, and platelet count. Internal validation showed that the model had good discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)?=?0.80] and calibration. Good discrimination (AUC?=?0.81) and calibration were preserved in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis showed that the predictive nomogram was clinically useful. The simple diagnostic nomogram, which combines demographic data and laboratory blood test results, was able to quantify the probability of NONFH in cases of early screening and diagnosis.

SUBMITTER: Xu Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7691506 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head in Chinese population.

Xu Qiang Q Chen Hangjun H Chen Sihai S Shan Jing J Xia Guoming G Cao Zhiyou Z Liu Xuqiang X Dai Min M

Scientific reports 20201126 1

Although corticosteroids and alcohol are two major risk factors for nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head (NONFH), the effects of other factors have rarely been studied, thereby making early diagnosis and treatment of NONFH difficult. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to NONFH, but patients with alcohol- and steroid-related NONFH are not at all taken into account in this study. A training cohort of 790 patients (n = 434, NONFH; n = 356, femoral neck fractures [non-NONF ...[more]

PMID: 33244062

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Free vascularized fibula graft (FVFG) techniques have most consistently demonstrated beneficial effects in young patients diagnosed with nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head (NONFH), and the core track technique (CTT) in particular is the most commonly used technique. As an alternative to CTT, the modified light bulb technique (LBT) has been reported to have a higher success rate. However, its biomechanical outcomes are poorly understood. This study aimed to compare the biomechanical properties of modified LBT with those of CTT in treating NONFH. METHODS:Two types (C1 and C2) of NONFH finite element models were established on the basis of a healthy subject and the Japanese Investigation Committee (JIC) classification system, and the CTT and LBT procedures were simulated in each type of model. The average von Mises stresses and stiffness of the proximal femur were calculated by applying a load of 250% of the body weight on the femoral head to simulate walking conditions. In addition, two patient-specific models were built and simulated under the same boundary conditions to further validate the LBT. RESULTS:In the healthy subject-derived models, both the LBT and CTT resulted in reduced stresses in the weight-bearing area, central femoral head, femoral neck, and trochanteric and subtrochanteric regions and increased structural stiffness after surgery. In the weight-bearing area, the CTT reduced the stress more than the LBT did (36.19% vs 31.45%) for type C1 NONFH and less than the LBT did (23.63% vs 26.76%) for type C2 NONFH. In the patient-specific models, the stiffness and stresses also increased and decreased, respectively, from before to after surgery, which is consistent with the results of healthy subject-derived models. CONCLUSION:The biomechanical effects of the LBT and CTT differ by the JIC type of NONFH. In terms of preventing the collapse of the femoral head, the LBT may be more effective for JIC type C2 NONFH and may be a suitable alternative to the CTT, while for JIC type C1 NONFH, the CTT is still a better choice. Both techniques can improve the biomechanical properties of NONFH by reducing the proximal femoral stress and increasing the structural stiffness.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head in Chinese population.

Publications

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the probability of nontraumatic osteonecrosis of the femoral head in Chinese population.

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