Dataset Information

Estimating hunting harvest from partial reporting: a Bayesian approach.

ABSTRACT: Quantifying hunting harvest is essential for numerous ecological topics, necessitating reliable estimates. We here propose novel analytical tools for this purpose. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we introduce models for hunting reports that accounts for different structures of the data. Focusing on Swedish harvest reports of red fox (Vulpes vulpes), wild boar (Sus scrofa), European pine marten (Martes martes), and Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber), we evaluated predictive performance through training and validation sets as well as Leave One Out Cross Validation. The analyses revealed that to provide reliable harvest estimates, analyses must account for both random variability among hunting teams and the effect of hunting area per team on the harvest rate. Disregarding the former underestimated the uncertainty, especially at finer spatial resolutions (county and hunting management precincts). Disregarding the latter imposed a bias that overestimated total harvest. We also found support for association between average harvest rate and variability, yet the direction of the association varied among species. However, this feature proved less important for predictive purposes. Importantly, the hierarchical Bayesian framework improved previously used point estimates by reducing sensitivity to low reporting and presenting inherent uncertainties.

SUBMITTER: Lindstrom T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7712918 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating hunting harvest from partial reporting: a Bayesian approach.

Lindström Tom T Bergqvist Göran G

Scientific reports 20201203 1

Quantifying hunting harvest is essential for numerous ecological topics, necessitating reliable estimates. We here propose novel analytical tools for this purpose. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we introduce models for hunting reports that accounts for different structures of the data. Focusing on Swedish harvest reports of red fox (Vulpes vulpes), wild boar (Sus scrofa), European pine marten (Martes martes), and Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber), we evaluated predictive performance throu ...[more]

PMID: 33273576

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Project description:BackgroundQuantitative neuroimaging analyses have demonstrated gray and white matter abnormalities in group comparisons of different types of non-lesional partial epilepsy. It is unknown to what degree these type-specific patterns exist in individual patients and if they could be exploited for diagnostic purposes. In this study, a two-level multi-modality imaging Bayesian network approach is proposed that uses information about individual gray matter volume loss and white matter integrity to classify non-lesional temporal lobe epilepsy with (TLE-MTS) and without (TLE-no) mesial-temporal sclerosis and frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE).Methods25 controls, 19 TLE-MTS, 22 TLE-no and 14 FLE were studied on a 4T MRI and T1 weighted structural and DTI images acquired. Spatially normalized gray matter (GM) and fractional anisotropy (FA) abnormality maps (binary maps with voxels 1 SD below control mean) were calculated for each subject. At the first level, each group's abnormality maps were compared with those from all the other groups using Graphical-Model-based Morphometric Analysis (GAMMA). GAMMA uses a Bayesian network and a Markov random field based contextual clustering method to produce maps of voxels that provide the maximal distinction between two groups and calculates a probability distribution and a group assignment based on this information. The information was then combined in a second level Bayesian network and the probability of each subject to belong to one of the three epilepsy types calculated.ResultsThe specificities of the two level Bayesian network to distinguish between the three patient groups were 0.87 for TLE-MTS and TLE-no and 0.86 for FLE, the corresponding sensitivities were 0.84 for TLE-MTS, 0.72 for TLE-no and 0.64 for FLE.ConclusionThe two-level multi-modality Bayesian network approach was able to distinguish between the three epilepsy types with a reasonably high accuracy even though the majority of the images were completely normal on visual inspection.

Dataset Information

Estimating hunting harvest from partial reporting: a Bayesian approach.

Publications

Estimating hunting harvest from partial reporting: a Bayesian approach.

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