Dataset Information

Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear.

Objectives

We explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China.

Methods

The surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were collected from 28 provincial level regions in China, and estimated the instantaneous reproductive number (R_t). The generalized additive model was used to assess the relationship between mean temperature and R_t.

Results

There were 12,745 COVID-19 cases collected in the study areas. We report the associated effect of temperature on R_t is likely to be negative but not of statistical significance, which holds for most Chinese regions.

Conclusions

We found little statistical evidence for that the higher temperature may reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19. Since intensive control measures against the COVID-19 epidemics were implemented in China, we acknowledge this may impact the underlying effect size estimation, and thus cautiousness should be taken when interpreting our findings.

SUBMITTER: Wang Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7713592 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

Wang Qingan Q Zhao Yu Y Zhang Yajuan Y Qiu Jiangwei J Li Juan J Yan Ni N Li Nan N Zhang Jiaxing J Tian Di D Sha Xiaolan X Jing Jinyun J Yang Chan C Wang Kairong K Xu Rongbin R Zhang Yuhong Y Yang Huifang H Zhao Shi S Zhao Yi Y

Environmental research 20201203

<h4>Background</h4>Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear.<h4>Objectives</h4>We explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China.<h4>Methods</h4>The surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were coll ...[more]

PMID: 33279494

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Project description:Background In September 2021, there was an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Xiamen, China. Various non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) and pharmacological interventions (PIs) have been implemented to prevent and control the spread of the disease. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of various interventions and to identify priorities for the implementation of prevention and control measures. Methods The data of patients with COVID-19 were collected from 8 to 30 September 2021. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) dynamics model was developed to fit the data and simulate the effectiveness of interventions (medical treatment, isolation, social distancing, masking, and vaccination) under different scenarios. The effective reproductive number (Reff) was used to assess the transmissibility and transmission risk. Results A total of 236 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Xiamen. The epidemic curve was divided into three phases (Reff = 6.8, 1.5, and 0). Notably, the cumulative number of cases was reduced by 99.67% due to the preventive and control measures implemented by the local government. In the effective containment stage, the number of cases could be reduced to 115 by intensifying the implementation of interventions. The total number of cases (TN) could be reduced by 29.66–95.34% when patients voluntarily visit fever clinics. When only two or three of these measures are implemented, the simulated TN may be greater than the actual number. As four measures were taken simultaneously, the TN may be <100, which is 57.63% less than the actual number. The simultaneous implementation of five interventions could rapidly control the transmission and reduce the number of cases to fewer than 25. Conclusion With the joint efforts of the government and the public, the outbreak was controlled quickly and effectively. Authorities could promptly cut the transmission chain and control the spread of the disease when patients with fever voluntarily went to the hospital. The ultimate effect of controlling the outbreak through only one intervention was not obvious. The combined community control and mask wearing, along with other interventions, could lead to rapid control of the outbreak and ultimately lower the total number of cases. More importantly, this would mitigate the impact of the outbreak on society and socioeconomics.

Dataset Information

Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Could the ambient higher temperature decrease the transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

Similar Datasets

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