Dataset Information

A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Precise predictions of incidence and mortality rates due to breast cancer (BC) are required for planning of public health programs as well as for clinical services. A number of approaches has been established for prediction of mortality using stochastic models. The performance of these models intensely depends on different patterns shown by mortality data in different countries.

Methods

The BC mortality data is retrieved from the Global burden of disease (GBD) study 2017 database. This study include BC mortality rates from 1990 to 2017, with ages 20 to 80+ years old women, for different Asian countries. Our study extend the current literature on Asian BC mortality data, on both the number of considered stochastic mortality models and their rigorous evaluation using multivariate Diebold-Marino test and by range of graphical analysis for multiple countries.

Results

Study findings reveal that stochastic smoothed mortality models based on functional data analysis generally outperform on quadratic structure of BC mortality rates than the other lee-carter models, both in term of goodness of fit and on forecast accuracy. Besides, smoothed lee carter (SLC) model outperform the functional demographic model (FDM) in case of symmetric structure of BC mortality rates, and provides almost comparable results to FDM in within and outside data forecast accuracy for heterogeneous set of BC mortality rates.

Conclusion

Considering the SLC model in comparison to the other can be obliging to forecast BC mortality and life expectancy at birth, since it provides even better results in some cases. In the current situation, we can assume that there is no single model, which can truly outperform all the others on every population. Therefore, we also suggest generating BC mortality forecasts using multiple models rather than relying upon any single model.

SUBMITTER: Mubarik S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7727112 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach.

Mubarik Sumaira S Hu Ying Y Yu Chuanhua C

BMC medical research methodology 20201209 1

<h4>Background</h4>Precise predictions of incidence and mortality rates due to breast cancer (BC) are required for planning of public health programs as well as for clinical services. A number of approaches has been established for prediction of mortality using stochastic models. The performance of these models intensely depends on different patterns shown by mortality data in different countries.<h4>Methods</h4>The BC mortality data is retrieved from the Global burden of disease (GBD) study 201 ...[more]

PMID: 33297980

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundNext-generation sequencing has been used by investigators to address a diverse range of biological problems through, for example, polymorphism and mutation discovery and microRNA profiling. However, compared to conventional sequencing, the error rates for next-generation sequencing are often higher, which impacts the downstream genomic analysis. Recently, Wang et al. (BMC Bioinformatics 13:185, 2012) proposed a shadow regression approach to estimate the error rates for next-generation sequencing data based on the assumption of a linear relationship between the number of reads sequenced and the number of reads containing errors (denoted as shadows). However, this linear read-shadow relationship may not be appropriate for all types of sequence data. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the error rates in a more reliable way without assuming linearity. We proposed an empirical error rate estimation approach that employs cubic and robust smoothing splines to model the relationship between the number of reads sequenced and the number of shadows.ResultsWe performed simulation studies using a frequency-based approach to generate the read and shadow counts directly, which can mimic the real sequence counts data structure. Using simulation, we investigated the performance of the proposed approach and compared it to that of shadow linear regression. The proposed approach provided more accurate error rate estimations than the shadow linear regression approach for all the scenarios tested. We also applied the proposed approach to assess the error rates for the sequence data from the MicroArray Quality Control project, a mutation screening study, the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements project, and bacteriophage PhiX DNA samples.ConclusionsThe proposed empirical error rate estimation approach does not assume a linear relationship between the error-free read and shadow counts and provides more accurate estimations of error rates for next-generation, short-read sequencing data.

Project description:BackgroundThe evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days.ObjectivesWe developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set.MethodsWe collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country.ResultsThere was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0-1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0-7 days).ConclusionsThe results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change.CitationGuo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Overcenco A, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Saldiva P, Williams G, Tong S. 2016. Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1554-1559; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149.

Dataset Information

A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A multi-country comparison of stochastic models of breast cancer mortality with P-splines smoothing approach.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets