Dataset Information

A novel nomogram to predict perioperative acute kidney injury following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objective

Heart failure (HF) is a global health issue, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is one of the most effective surgical treatments for HF with coronary artery disease. Unfortunately, the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is high in HF patients following CABG, and there are few tools to predict AKI after CABG surgery for such patients. The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after CABG in patients with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

Methods

From 2012 to 2017, Clinical information of 1208 consecutive patients who had LVEF< 50% and underwent isolated CABG was collected to establish a derivation cohort. A novel nomogram was developed using the logistic regression model to predict postoperative AKI among these patients. According to the same inclusion criteria and the same period, we extracted the data of patients from 6 other large cardiac centers in China (n = 540) from the China Heart Failure Surgery Registry (China-HFSR) database for external validation of the new model. The nomogram was compared with 3 other available models predicting renal failure after cardiac surgery in terms of calibration, discrimination and net benefit.

Results

In the derivation cohort (n = 1208), 90 (7.45%) patients were diagnosed with postoperative AKI. The nomogram included 7 independent risk factors: female, increased preoperative creatinine(> 2 mg/dL), LVEF< 35%, previous myocardial infarction (MI), hypertension, cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) used and perioperative blood transfusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.738, higher than the other 3 models. By comparing calibration curves and decision curve analyses (DCA) with other models, the novel nomogram showed better calibration and greater net benefit. Among the 540 patients in the validation cohort, 104 (19.3%) had postoperative AKI, and the novel nomogram performed better with respect to calibration, discrimination and net benefit.

Conclusions

The novel nomogram is a reliable model to predict postoperative AKI following isolated CABG for patients with impaired LVEF.

SUBMITTER: Lin H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7731767 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A novel nomogram to predict perioperative acute kidney injury following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction.

Lin Hongyuan H Hou Jianfeng J Tang Hanwei H Chen Kai K Sun Hansong H Zheng Zhe Z Hu Shengshou S

BMC cardiovascular disorders 20201210 1

<h4>Background and objective</h4>Heart failure (HF) is a global health issue, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is one of the most effective surgical treatments for HF with coronary artery disease. Unfortunately, the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is high in HF patients following CABG, and there are few tools to predict AKI after CABG surgery for such patients. The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after CABG in patients with ...[more]

PMID: 33302875

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Project description:BackgroundWhile reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is a known risk factor for complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), the relevance of higher LVEF values has not been established. Currently, most risk stratification tools consider LVEF values above a certain point as normal. However, since this does not account for insufficient ventricular filling or increased adrenergic tone, higher values may have clinical significance. To improve our understanding of this situation, we investigated the relationship of preoperative LVEF values with short- and long-term outcomes after CABG using a strategy that allowed for the identification of nonlinear relationships. We hypothesised that both higher and lower values are independently associated with increased postoperative complications and death in this population.MethodsWe performed a single-centre retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery. All patients had a preoperative measurement of their LVEF. Surgery involving mitral valve repair was excluded in order to eliminate the impact of mitral regurgitation. The primary outcome was long-term mortality; secondary outcomes included atrial fibrillation, operative mortality, and a composite outcome including any postoperative adverse event. Fractional polynomial equations were used to model the relationship between LVEF and outcomes so we could account for nonlinear relationships if present. Adjustments for confounders were made using multivariable logistic regression and Cox models.ResultsA total of 7,932 subjects were included in the study. After adjusting for patient and surgical characteristics, LVEF remained associated with the primary outcome as well as the composite outcome of any postoperative adverse event. Both these relationships were best described by a J-shaped curve given that higher LVEF values were associated with increased risk, albeit not as high has lower values. Regarding long-term mortality, individuals with a preoperative LVEF of 60% demonstrated the longest survival. A statistically significant relationship was not found between LVEF and operative mortality or atrial fibrillation after adjustment for confounders.ConclusionsHigher preoperative LVEF values may be associated with increased risk for patients undergoing CABG surgery. Future studies are needed to better characterise this phenotype.

Project description:ImportanceData are lacking on the outcomes of patients with severely reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who undergo revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).ObjectiveTo compare the long-term outcomes in patients undergoing revascularization by PCI or CABG.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study performed in Ontario, Canada, from October 1, 2008, and December 31, 2016, included data from Ontario residents between 40 and 84 years of age with LVEFs less than 35% and left anterior descending (LAD), left main, or multivessel coronary artery disease (with or without LAD involvement) who underwent PCI or CABG. Exclusion criteria were concomitant procedures, previous CABG, metastatic cancer, dialysis, CABG and PCI on the same day, and emergency revascularization within 24 hours of a myocardial infarction (MI). Data analysis was performed from June 2, 2018, to December 28, 2018.ExposuresRevascularization by PCI or CABG.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were death from cardiovascular disease, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; defined as stroke, subsequent revascularization, and hospitalization for MI or heart failure), and each of the individual MACE.ResultsA total of 12 113 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.8 (11.0) years for the PCI group and 65.6 [9.7] years for the CABG group; 5084 (72.5%) male for the PCI group and 4229 (82.9%) male for the PCI group) were propensity score matched on 30 baseline characteristics: 2397 patients undergoing PCI and 2397 patients undergoing CABG. The median follow-up was 5.2 years (interquartile range, 5.0-5.3). Patients who received PCI had significantly higher rates of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7), death from cardiovascular disease (HR 1.4, 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), MACE (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.9-2.2), subsequent revascularization (HR, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.2-4.3), and hospitalization for MI (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.6-3.8) and heart failure (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6) compared with matched patients who underwent CABG.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, higher rates of mortality and MACE were seen in patients who received PCI compared with those who underwent CABG. The findings may provide insight to physicians who are involved in decision-making for these patients.

Project description:Aims: Evidence-based guidelines for heart failure management depend mainly on current left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, fewer studies have examined the impact of prior LVEF. Patients may enter the heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF) category when heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) deteriorates or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) improves. In this study, we examined the association between change in LVEF and adverse outcomes. Methods: HFmrEF patients with at least two or more echocardiograms 3 months apart at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University between September 1, 2015 and November 30, 2019 were identified. According to the prior LVEF, the subjects were divided into improved group (prior LVEF < 40%), stable group (prior LVEF between 40 and 50%), and deteriorated group (prior LVEF ≥ 50%). The primary outcomes were cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, hospitalization for worsening heart failure, and composite event of all-cause mortality or all-cause hospitalization. Results: A total of 1,168 HFmrEF patients (67.04% male, mean age 63.60 ± 12.18 years) were included. The percentages of improved, stable, and deteriorated group were 310 (26.54%), 334 (28.60%), and 524 (44.86%), respectively. After a period of follow-up, 208 patients (17.81%) died and 500 patients met the composite endpoint. The rates of all-cause mortality were 35 (11.29%), 55 (16.47%), and 118 (22.52%), and the composite outcome was 102 (32.90%), 145 (43.41%), and 253 (48.28%) for the improved, stable, and deteriorated groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that the deterioration group had higher risk of cardiovascular death (HR: 1.707, 95% CI: 1.064-2.739, P = 0.027), all-cause death (HR 1.948, 95% CI 1.335-2.840, P = 0.001), and composite outcome (HR 1.379, 95% CI 1.096-1.736, P = 0.006) compared to the improvement group. The association still remained significant after fully adjusted for both all-cause mortality (HR = 1.899, 95% CI 1.247-2.893, P = 0.003) and composite outcome (HR: 1.324, 95% CI: 1.020-1.718, P = 0.035). Conclusion: HFmrEF patients are heterogeneous with three different subsets identified, each with different outcomes. Strategies for managing HFmrEF should include previously measured LVEF to allow stratification based on direction changes in LVEF to better optimize treatment.

Project description:PurposeRecently, a "U" hazard ratio curve between resting left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and prognosis has been observed in patients referred for routine clinical echocardiograms. The present study sought to explore whether a similar "U" curve existed between resting LVEF and coronary flow reserve (CFR) in patients without severe cardiovascular disease (CVD) and whether impaired CFR played a role in the adverse outcome of patients with supra-normal LVEF (snLVEF, LVEF ≥ 65%).MethodsTwo hundred ten consecutive patients (mean age 52.3 ± 9.3 years, 104 women) without severe CVD underwent clinically indicated rest/dipyridamole stress electrocardiography (ECG)-gated 13 N-ammonia positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT). Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were followed up for 27.3 ± 9.5 months, including heart failure, late revascularization, re-hospitalization, and re-coronary angiography for any cardiac reason. Clinical characteristics, corrected CFR (cCFR), and MACE were compared among the three groups categorized by resting LVEF detected by PET/CT. Dose-response analyses using restricted cubic spline (RCS) functions, multivariate logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were conducted to evaluate the relationship between resting LVEF and CFR/outcome.ResultsAn inverted "U" curve existed between resting LVEF and cCFR (p = 0.06). Both patients with snLVEF (n = 38) and with reduced LVEF (rLVEF, LVEF < 55%) (n = 66) displayed a higher incidence of reduced cCFR than those with normal LVEF (nLVEF, 55% ≤ LVEF < 65%) (n = 106) (57.9% vs 54.5% vs 34.3%, p < 0.01, respectively). Both snLVEF (p < 0.01) and rLVEF (p < 0.05) remained independent predictors for reduced cCFR after multivariable adjustment. Patients with snLVEF encountered more MACE than those with nLVEF (10.5% vs 0.9%, log-rank p = 0.01).ConclusionsPatients with snLVEF are prone to impaired cCFR, which may be related to the adverse prognosis. Further investigations are warranted to explore its underlying pathological mechanism and clinical significance.

Project description:Background and Aims: Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are among the most challenging patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). Several surgical risk scores are commonly used to predict the risk in patients undergoing CABG. However, these risk scores do not specifically target HFrEF patients. We aim to develop and validate a new nomogram score to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality among HFrEF patients after CABG. Methods: The study retrospectively enrolled 489 patients who had HFrEF and underwent CABG. The outcome was postoperative in-hospital death. About 70% (n = 342) of the patients were randomly constituted a training cohort and the rest (n = 147) made a validation cohort. A multivariable logistic regression model was derived from the training cohort and presented as a nomogram to predict postoperative mortality in patients with HFrEF. The model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Besides, we compared the model with EuroSCORE-2 in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results: Postoperative death occurred in 26 (7.6%) out of 342 patients in the training cohort, and in 10 (6.8%) out of 147 patients in the validation cohort. Eight preoperative factors were associated with postoperative death, including age, critical state, recent myocardial infarction, stroke, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤35%, LV dilatation, increased serum creatinine, and combined surgery. The nomogram achieved good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.889 (95%CI, 0.839-0.938) and 0.899 (95%CI, 0.835-0.963) in predicting the risk of mortality after CABG in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, and showed well-fitted calibration curves in the patients whose predicted mortality probabilities were below 40%. Compared with EuroSCORE-2, the nomogram had significantly higher C-indexes in the training cohort (0.889 vs. 0.762, p = 0.005) as well as the validation cohort (0.899 vs. 0.816, p = 0.039). Besides, the nomogram had better calibration and reclassification than EuroSCORE-2 both in the training and validation cohort. The EuroSCORE-2 underestimated postoperative mortality risk, especially in high-risk patients. Conclusions: The nomogram provides an optimal preoperative estimation of mortality risk after CABG in patients with HFrEF and has the potential to facilitate identifying HFrEF patients at high risk of in-hospital mortality.

Dataset Information

A novel nomogram to predict perioperative acute kidney injury following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction.

Background and objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A novel nomogram to predict perioperative acute kidney injury following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction.

Similar Datasets

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