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Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

ABSTRACT: Background and Aims: Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are among the most challenging patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). Several surgical risk scores are commonly used to predict the risk in patients undergoing CABG. However, these risk scores do not specifically target HFrEF patients. We aim to develop and validate a new nomogram score to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality among HFrEF patients after CABG. Methods: The study retrospectively enrolled 489 patients who had HFrEF and underwent CABG. The outcome was postoperative in-hospital death. About 70% (n = 342) of the patients were randomly constituted a training cohort and the rest (n = 147) made a validation cohort. A multivariable logistic regression model was derived from the training cohort and presented as a nomogram to predict postoperative mortality in patients with HFrEF. The model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Besides, we compared the model with EuroSCORE-2 in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results: Postoperative death occurred in 26 (7.6%) out of 342 patients in the training cohort, and in 10 (6.8%) out of 147 patients in the validation cohort. Eight preoperative factors were associated with postoperative death, including age, critical state, recent myocardial infarction, stroke, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤35%, LV dilatation, increased serum creatinine, and combined surgery. The nomogram achieved good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.889 (95%CI, 0.839–0.938) and 0.899 (95%CI, 0.835–0.963) in predicting the risk of mortality after CABG in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, and showed well-fitted calibration curves in the patients whose predicted mortality probabilities were below 40%. Compared with EuroSCORE-2, the nomogram had significantly higher C-indexes in the training cohort (0.889 vs. 0.762, p = 0.005) as well as the validation cohort (0.899 vs. 0.816, p = 0.039). Besides, the nomogram had better calibration and reclassification than EuroSCORE-2 both in the training and validation cohort. The EuroSCORE-2 underestimated postoperative mortality risk, especially in high-risk patients. Conclusions: The nomogram provides an optimal preoperative estimation of mortality risk after CABG in patients with HFrEF and has the potential to facilitate identifying HFrEF patients at high risk of in-hospital mortality.

SUBMITTER: Yan P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8514758 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceData are lacking on the outcomes of patients with severely reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who undergo revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).ObjectiveTo compare the long-term outcomes in patients undergoing revascularization by PCI or CABG.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study performed in Ontario, Canada, from October 1, 2008, and December 31, 2016, included data from Ontario residents between 40 and 84 years of age with LVEFs less than 35% and left anterior descending (LAD), left main, or multivessel coronary artery disease (with or without LAD involvement) who underwent PCI or CABG. Exclusion criteria were concomitant procedures, previous CABG, metastatic cancer, dialysis, CABG and PCI on the same day, and emergency revascularization within 24 hours of a myocardial infarction (MI). Data analysis was performed from June 2, 2018, to December 28, 2018.ExposuresRevascularization by PCI or CABG.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were death from cardiovascular disease, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; defined as stroke, subsequent revascularization, and hospitalization for MI or heart failure), and each of the individual MACE.ResultsA total of 12 113 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.8 (11.0) years for the PCI group and 65.6 [9.7] years for the CABG group; 5084 (72.5%) male for the PCI group and 4229 (82.9%) male for the PCI group) were propensity score matched on 30 baseline characteristics: 2397 patients undergoing PCI and 2397 patients undergoing CABG. The median follow-up was 5.2 years (interquartile range, 5.0-5.3). Patients who received PCI had significantly higher rates of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7), death from cardiovascular disease (HR 1.4, 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), MACE (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.9-2.2), subsequent revascularization (HR, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.2-4.3), and hospitalization for MI (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.6-3.8) and heart failure (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6) compared with matched patients who underwent CABG.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, higher rates of mortality and MACE were seen in patients who received PCI compared with those who underwent CABG. The findings may provide insight to physicians who are involved in decision-making for these patients.

Project description:Background and objectiveHeart failure (HF) is a global health issue, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is one of the most effective surgical treatments for HF with coronary artery disease. Unfortunately, the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is high in HF patients following CABG, and there are few tools to predict AKI after CABG surgery for such patients. The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after CABG in patients with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).MethodsFrom 2012 to 2017, Clinical information of 1208 consecutive patients who had LVEF< 50% and underwent isolated CABG was collected to establish a derivation cohort. A novel nomogram was developed using the logistic regression model to predict postoperative AKI among these patients. According to the same inclusion criteria and the same period, we extracted the data of patients from 6 other large cardiac centers in China (n = 540) from the China Heart Failure Surgery Registry (China-HFSR) database for external validation of the new model. The nomogram was compared with 3 other available models predicting renal failure after cardiac surgery in terms of calibration, discrimination and net benefit.ResultsIn the derivation cohort (n = 1208), 90 (7.45%) patients were diagnosed with postoperative AKI. The nomogram included 7 independent risk factors: female, increased preoperative creatinine(> 2 mg/dL), LVEF< 35%, previous myocardial infarction (MI), hypertension, cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) used and perioperative blood transfusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.738, higher than the other 3 models. By comparing calibration curves and decision curve analyses (DCA) with other models, the novel nomogram showed better calibration and greater net benefit. Among the 540 patients in the validation cohort, 104 (19.3%) had postoperative AKI, and the novel nomogram performed better with respect to calibration, discrimination and net benefit.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram is a reliable model to predict postoperative AKI following isolated CABG for patients with impaired LVEF.

Project description:ObjectiveWe evaluated whether interhospital variation in mortality rates for coronary artery bypass grafting was driven by complications and failure to rescue.MethodsAn observational study was conducted among 83,747 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between July 2011 and June 2017 across 90 hospitals. Failure to rescue was defined as operative mortality among patients developing complications. Complications included the Society of Thoracic Surgeons 5 major complications (stroke, surgical reexploration, deep sternal wound infection, renal failure, prolonged intubation) and a broader set of 19 overall complications. After creating terciles of hospital performance (based on observed:expected mortality), each tercile was compared on the basis of crude rates of (1) major and overall complications, (2) operative mortality, and (3) failure to rescue (among major and overall complications). The correlation between hospital observed and expected (to address confounding) failure to rescue rates was assessed.ResultsMedian Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted mortality risk was similar across hospital observed:expected mortality terciles (P = .831). Mortality rates significantly increased across terciles (low tercile: 1.4%, high tercile: 2.8%). Although small in magnitude, rates of major (low tercile: 11.1%, high tercile: 12.2%) and overall (low tercile: 36.6%, high tercile: 35.3%) complications significantly differed across terciles. Nonetheless, failure to rescue rates increased substantially across terciles among patients with major (low tercile: 9.1%, high tercile: 14.3%) and overall (low tercile: 3.3%, high tercile: 6.8%) complications. Hospital observed and expected failure to rescue rates were positively correlated among patients with major (R2 = 0.14) and overall (R2 = 0.51) complications.ConclusionsThe reported interhospital variability in successful rescue after coronary artery bypass grafting supports the importance of identifying best practices at high-performing hospitals, including early recognition and management of complications.

Project description:BackgroundWhile reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is a known risk factor for complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), the relevance of higher LVEF values has not been established. Currently, most risk stratification tools consider LVEF values above a certain point as normal. However, since this does not account for insufficient ventricular filling or increased adrenergic tone, higher values may have clinical significance. To improve our understanding of this situation, we investigated the relationship of preoperative LVEF values with short- and long-term outcomes after CABG using a strategy that allowed for the identification of nonlinear relationships. We hypothesised that both higher and lower values are independently associated with increased postoperative complications and death in this population.MethodsWe performed a single-centre retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery. All patients had a preoperative measurement of their LVEF. Surgery involving mitral valve repair was excluded in order to eliminate the impact of mitral regurgitation. The primary outcome was long-term mortality; secondary outcomes included atrial fibrillation, operative mortality, and a composite outcome including any postoperative adverse event. Fractional polynomial equations were used to model the relationship between LVEF and outcomes so we could account for nonlinear relationships if present. Adjustments for confounders were made using multivariable logistic regression and Cox models.ResultsA total of 7,932 subjects were included in the study. After adjusting for patient and surgical characteristics, LVEF remained associated with the primary outcome as well as the composite outcome of any postoperative adverse event. Both these relationships were best described by a J-shaped curve given that higher LVEF values were associated with increased risk, albeit not as high has lower values. Regarding long-term mortality, individuals with a preoperative LVEF of 60% demonstrated the longest survival. A statistically significant relationship was not found between LVEF and operative mortality or atrial fibrillation after adjustment for confounders.ConclusionsHigher preoperative LVEF values may be associated with increased risk for patients undergoing CABG surgery. Future studies are needed to better characterise this phenotype.

Project description:BackgroundThe intra aortic balloon pump (IABP) is a mechanical assist device which improves cardiac function. The device has a well-established place in algorithms for managing low cardiac output following cardiac surgery. There is increasing evidence that certain cardiac surgery patients benefit from a period of preoperative augmentation with the intra aortic balloon pump.ObjectivesTo determine the effect of the preoperative intra aortic balloon pump on mortality and morbidity in a number of different patients groups undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.Search strategyThe Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) on The Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2009), MEDLINE (2000 to August 2009), EMBASE (1998 to August 2009), BIOSIS previews (1969 to August 2009) and ISI Proceedings (1990 to August 2009) were searched. References and ongoing registers of studies were checked. No language restrictions were applied.Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any size or length were included.Data collection and analysisPapers were assessed for inclusion by two authors independently and differences were settled by consensus with a third author. Date are presented in the form of odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Main resultsSix trials were included (five on-pump and one off-pump). This update adds the results of one further trial. Data from a total of 255 patients were included in the meta-analysis of mortality outcomes; all on-pump. Generally, the patients were considered as "high risk" and 132 were treated preoperatively with IABP and 123 served as controls. There were four hospital deaths in the intervention arm and 23 in the non-intervention arm (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.41; P<0.0001). In a subgroup analysis, low cardiac index (<2.0 L/min/m(2)) was noted in 21 out of 105 patients in the treatment arm and 59 patients out of 88 in the non-treatment arm (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.25; P<0.00001). An off-pump versus on-pump analysis was not possible due to the limited number of off-pump studies. However a single well-conducted RCT suggested favourable effect of the preoperative IABP in off-pump patients.Authors' conclusionsEvidence suggests that preoperative IABP may have a beneficial effect on mortality and morbidity in specific high risk patient groups undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, however there are many problems with the quality, validity and generalisability of the trials. However, the available evidence is not robust enough to extend the use of IABP to truly elective, high risk patients. Defining more precisely which patient groups may benefit would be the challenge for the future.

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Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

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