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Natural gas shortages during the "coal-to-gas" transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017.

ABSTRACT: The Chinese "coal-to-gas" and "coal-to-electricity" strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations of ?14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the "2+26" pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ?60% of the total PM_2.5 reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous ?15% upsurge of PM_2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China's clean-energy transition.

SUBMITTER: Wang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7733853 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Natural gas shortages during the "coal-to-gas" transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017.

Wang Siwen S Su Hang H Chen Chuchu C Tao Wei W Streets David G DG Lu Zifeng Z Zheng Bo B Carmichael Gregory R GR Lelieveld Jos J Pöschl Ulrich U Cheng Yafang Y

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20201123 49

The Chinese "coal-to-gas" and "coal-to-electricity" strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) concentrations of ∼14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the "2+26" pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period ...[more]

PMID: 33229579

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Project description:BACKGROUND:In the winter of 2016-2017, the number of deaths recorded in the north-west Europe was significantly higher than that in previous years. This spike in mortality was attributed principally to an influenza epidemic, but the contribution of air pollution and cold temperature has not been investigated. Information on the combined effect of low temperatures, influenza epidemic, and air pollution on mortality is inadequate. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess mortality in the winter of 2016-2017 in the metropolitan area of Milan, and to evaluate the independent short-term effect of 3 risk factors: low temperatures, the influenza epidemic, and air pollution. METHODS:We used a case-crossover, time-stratified study design. Mortality data were collected on all people aged > 65 years who died of natural causes, due to respiratory diseases or cardiovascular diseases, between December 1, 2016 and February 15, 2017. Environmental data were extracted from the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. The National Surveillance Network provided data on influenza epidemic. RESULTS:Among the 7590 natural deaths in people aged > 65 years, 965 (13%) were caused by respiratory conditions, and 2688 (35%) were caused by cardiovascular conditions. There were statistically significant associations between the minimum recorded temperature and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.944-0.989), and cardiovascular conditions (OR = 0.961, 95% CI: 0.925-0.999). There were also statistically significant association between the influenza epidemic and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 1.198, 95% CI: 1.156-1.241), cardiovascular conditions (OR = 1.153, 95% CI: 1.088-1.223), and respiratory conditions (OR = 1.303, 95% CI: 1.166-1.456). High levels of PM10 (60 and 70 μg/m3) were associated with a statistically significant increase in natural and cause-specific mortality. There were statistically significant interactions between PM10 and influenza for cardiovascular-related mortality, and between influenza and temperature for deaths due to natural causes. CONCLUSIONS:Excess of mortality in Milan during winter 2016-2017 was associated with influenza epidemic and concomitant environmental exposures, specifically, the combined effect of air pollution and low temperatures. Policies mitigating the effects of environmental risk factors should be implemented to prevent future excess mortality.

Dataset Information

Natural gas shortages during the "coal-to-gas" transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017.

Publications

Natural gas shortages during the "coal-to-gas" transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017.

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