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Prognostic Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Observational Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To identify characteristics that predict 30-day mortality among patients critically ill with coronavirus disease 2019 in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. DESIGN:Observational cohort study. SETTING:A total of 258 adult critical care units. PATIENTS:A total of 10,362 patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 with a start of critical care between March 1, 2020, and June 22, 2020, of whom 9,990 were eligible (excluding patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hr or missing core variables). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:The main outcome measure was time to death within 30 days of the start of critical care. Of 9,990 eligible patients (median age 60 yr, 70% male), 6,027 died within 30 days of the start of critical care. As of July 22, 2020, 189 patients were still receiving critical care and a further 446 were still in acute hospital. Data were missing for between 0.1% and 7.2% of patients across prognostic factors. We imputed missing data ten-fold, using fully conditional specification and continuous variables were modeled using restricted cubic splines. Associations between the candidate prognostic factors and time to death within 30 days of the start of critical care were determined after adjustment for multiple variables with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Significant associations were identified for age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, prior dependency, immunocompromise, lowest systolic blood pressure, highest heart rate, highest respiratory rate, PaO2/FIO2 ratio (and interaction with mechanical ventilation), highest blood lactate concentration, highest serum urea, and lowest platelet count over the first 24 hours of critical care. Nonsignificant associations were found for sex, sedation, highest temperature, and lowest hemoglobin concentration. CONCLUSIONS:We identified patient characteristics that predict an increased likelihood of death within 30 days of the start of critical care for patients with coronavirus disease 2019. These findings may support development of a prediction model for benchmarking critical care providers.

SUBMITTER: Ferrando-Vivas P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7737692 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Observational Cohort Study.

Ferrando-Vivas Paloma P Doidge James J Thomas Karen K Gould Doug W DW Mouncey Paul P Shankar-Hari Manu M Young J Duncan JD Rowan Kathryn M KM Harrison David A DA

Critical care medicine 20210101 1

<h4>Objectives</h4>To identify characteristics that predict 30-day mortality among patients critically ill with coronavirus disease 2019 in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.<h4>Design</h4>Observational cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>A total of 258 adult critical care units.<h4>Patients</h4>A total of 10,362 patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 with a start of critical care between March 1, 2020, and June 22, 2020, of whom 9,990 were eligible (excluding patients with a duration of c ...[more]

PMID: 33116052

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies linked a high intensity of ventilation, measured as mechanical power, to mortality in patients suffering from "classic" ARDS. By contrast, mechanically ventilated patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 may present with intact pulmonary mechanics while undergoing mechanical ventilation for longer periods of time. We investigated whether an association between higher mechanical power and mortality is modified by a diagnosis of COVID-19.MethodsThis retrospective study included critically ill, adult patients who were mechanically ventilated for at least 24 h between March 2020 and December 2021 at a tertiary healthcare facility in Boston, Massachusetts. The primary exposure was median mechanical power during the first 24 h of mechanical ventilation, calculated using a previously validated formula. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. As co-primary analysis, we investigated whether a diagnosis of COVID-19 modified the primary association. We further investigated the association between mechanical power and days being alive and ventilator free and effect modification of this by a diagnosis of COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression, effect modification and negative binomial regression analyses adjusted for baseline patient characteristics, severity of disease and in-hospital factors, were applied.Results1,737 mechanically ventilated patients were included, 411 (23.7%) suffered from COVID-19. 509 (29.3%) died within 30 days. The median mechanical power during the first 24 h of ventilation was 19.3 [14.6-24.0] J/min in patients with and 13.2 [10.2-18.0] J/min in patients without COVID-19. A higher mechanical power was associated with 30-day mortality (ORadj 1.26 per 1-SD, 7.1J/min increase; 95% CI 1.09-1.46; p = 0.002). Effect modification and interaction analysis did not support that this association was modified by a diagnosis of COVID-19 (95% CI, 0.81-1.38; p-for-interaction = 0.68). A higher mechanical power was associated with a lower number of days alive and ventilator free until day 28 (IRRadj 0.83 per 7.1 J/min increase; 95% CI 0.75-0.91; p < 0.001, adjusted risk difference - 2.7 days per 7.1J/min increase; 95% CI - 4.1 to - 1.3).ConclusionA higher mechanical power is associated with elevated 30-day mortality. While patients with COVID-19 received mechanical ventilation with higher mechanical power, this association was independent of a concomitant diagnosis of COVID-19.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Increasing time to mechanical ventilation and high-flow nasal cannula use may be associated with mortality in coronavirus disease 2019. We examined the impact of time to intubation and use of high-flow nasal cannula on clinical outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease 2019. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING:Six coronavirus disease 2019-specific ICUs across four university-affiliated hospitals in Atlanta, Georgia. PATIENTS:Adults with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection who received high-flow nasal cannula or mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Among 231 patients admitted to the ICU, 109 (47.2%) were treated with high-flow nasal cannula and 97 (42.0%) were intubated without preceding high-flow nasal cannula use. Of those managed with high-flow nasal cannula, 78 (71.6%) ultimately received mechanical ventilation. In total, 175 patients received mechanical ventilation; 44.6% were female, 66.3% were Black, and the median age was 66 years (interquartile range, 56-75 yr). Seventy-six patients (43.4%) were intubated within 8 hours of ICU admission, 57 (32.6%) between 8 and 24 hours of admission, and 42 (24.0%) greater than or equal to 24 hours after admission. Patients intubated within 8 hours were more likely to have diabetes, chronic comorbidities, and higher admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. Mortality did not differ by time to intubation (? 8 hr: 38.2%; 8-24 hr: 31.6%; ? 24 hr: 38.1%; p = 0.7), and there was no association between time to intubation and mortality in adjusted analysis. Similarly, there was no difference in initial static compliance, duration of mechanical ventilation, or ICU length of stay by timing of intubation. High-flow nasal cannula use prior to intubation was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS:In this cohort of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019, neither time from ICU admission to intubation nor high-flow nasal cannula use were associated with increased mortality. This study provides evidence that coronavirus disease 2019 respiratory failure can be managed similarly to hypoxic respiratory failure of other etiologies.

Project description:ObjectivesCoronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 infection to which there is no community immunity. Patients admitted to ICUs have high mortality, with only supportive therapies available. Our aim was to profile plasma inflammatory analytes to help understand the host response to coronavirus disease 2019.DesignDaily blood inflammation profiling with immunoassays.SettingTertiary care ICU and academic laboratory.SubjectsAll patients admitted to the ICU suspected of being infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2, using standardized hospital screening methodologies, had daily blood samples collected until either testing was confirmed negative on ICU day 3 (coronavirus disease 2019 negative), or until ICU day 7 if the patient was positive (coronavirus disease 2019 positive).InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsAge- and sex-matched healthy controls and ICU patients that were either coronavirus disease 2019 positive or coronavirus disease 2019 negative were enrolled. Cohorts were well-balanced with the exception that coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients were more likely than coronavirus disease 2019 negative patients to suffer bilateral pneumonia. Mortality rate for coronavirus disease 2019 positive ICU patients was 40%. We measured 57 inflammatory analytes and then analyzed with both conventional statistics and machine learning. Twenty inflammatory analytes were different between coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients and healthy controls (p < 0.01). Compared with coronavirus disease 2019 negative patients, coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients had 17 elevated inflammatory analytes on one or more of their ICU days 1-3 (p < 0.01), with feature classification identifying the top six analytes between cohorts as tumor necrosis factor, granzyme B, heat shock protein 70, interleukin-18, interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10, and elastase 2. While tumor necrosis factor, granzyme B, heat shock protein 70, and interleukin-18 were elevated for all seven ICU days, interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10 transiently elevated on ICU days 2 and 3 and elastase 2 increased over ICU days 2-7. Inflammation profiling predicted coronavirus disease 2019 status with 98% accuracy, whereas elevated heat shock protein 70 was strongly associated with mortality.ConclusionsWhile many inflammatory analytes were elevated in coronavirus disease 2019 positive ICU patients, relative to healthy controls, the top six analytes distinguishing coronavirus disease 2019 positive ICU patients from coronavirus disease 2019 negative ICU patients were tumor necrosis factor, granzyme B, heat shock protein 70, interleukin-18, interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10, and elastase 2.

Dataset Information

Prognostic Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Observational Cohort Study.

Publications

Prognostic Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Observational Cohort Study.

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