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The DIOS framework for optimizing infectious disease surveillance: Numerical methods for simulation and multi-objective optimization of surveillance network architectures.

ABSTRACT: Infectious disease surveillance systems provide vital data for guiding disease prevention and control policies, yet the formalization of methods to optimize surveillance networks has largely been overlooked. Decisions surrounding surveillance design parameters-such as the number and placement of surveillance sites, target populations, and case definitions-are often determined by expert opinion or deference to operational considerations, without formal analysis of the influence of design parameters on surveillance objectives. Here we propose a simulation framework to guide evidence-based surveillance network design to better achieve specific surveillance goals with limited resources. We define evidence-based surveillance design as an optimization problem, acknowledging the many operational constraints under which surveillance systems operate, the many dimensions of surveillance system design, the multiple and competing goals of surveillance, and the complex and dynamic nature of disease systems. We describe an analytical framework-the Disease Surveillance Informatics Optimization and Simulation (DIOS) framework-for the identification of optimal surveillance designs through mathematical representations of disease and surveillance processes, definition of objective functions, and numerical optimization. We then apply the framework to the problem of selecting candidate sites to expand an existing surveillance network under alternative objectives of: (1) improving spatial prediction of disease prevalence at unmonitored sites; or (2) estimating the observed effect of a risk factor on disease. Results of this demonstration illustrate how optimal designs are sensitive to both surveillance goals and the underlying spatial pattern of the target disease. The findings affirm the value of designing surveillance systems through quantitative and adaptive analysis of network characteristics and performance. The framework can be applied to the design of surveillance systems tailored to setting-specific disease transmission dynamics and surveillance needs, and can yield improved understanding of tradeoffs between network architectures.

SUBMITTER: Cheng Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7744064 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The DIOS framework for optimizing infectious disease surveillance: Numerical methods for simulation and multi-objective optimization of surveillance network architectures.

Cheng Qu Q Collender Philip A PA Heaney Alexandra K AK Li Xintong X Dasan Rohini R Li Charles C Lewnard Joseph A JA Zelner Jonathan L JL Liang Song S Chang Howard H HH Waller Lance A LA Lopman Benjamin A BA Yang Changhong C Remais Justin V JV

PLoS computational biology 20201204 12

Infectious disease surveillance systems provide vital data for guiding disease prevention and control policies, yet the formalization of methods to optimize surveillance networks has largely been overlooked. Decisions surrounding surveillance design parameters-such as the number and placement of surveillance sites, target populations, and case definitions-are often determined by expert opinion or deference to operational considerations, without formal analysis of the influence of design paramete ...[more]

PMID: 33275606

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Project description:The advent of two-photon microscopy now reveals unprecedented, detailed spatio-temporal data on cellular motility and interactions in vivo. Understanding cellular motility patterns is key to gaining insight into the development and possible manipulation of the immune response. Computational simulation has become an established technique for understanding immune processes and evaluating hypotheses in the context of experimental data, and there is clear scope to integrate microscopy-informed motility dynamics. However, determining which motility model best reflects in vivo motility is non-trivial: 3D motility is an intricate process requiring several metrics to characterize. This complicates model selection and parameterization, which must be performed against several metrics simultaneously. Here we evaluate Brownian motion, Lévy walk and several correlated random walks (CRWs) against the motility dynamics of neutrophils and lymph node T cells under inflammatory conditions by simultaneously considering cellular translational and turn speeds, and meandering indices. Heterogeneous cells exhibiting a continuum of inherent translational speeds and directionalities comprise both datasets, a feature significantly improving capture of in vivo motility when simulated as a CRW. Furthermore, translational and turn speeds are inversely correlated, and the corresponding CRW simulation again improves capture of our in vivo data, albeit to a lesser extent. In contrast, Brownian motion poorly reflects our data. Lévy walk is competitive in capturing some aspects of neutrophil motility, but T cell directional persistence only, therein highlighting the importance of evaluating models against several motility metrics simultaneously. This we achieve through novel application of multi-objective optimization, wherein each model is independently implemented and then parameterized to identify optimal trade-offs in performance against each metric. The resultant Pareto fronts of optimal solutions are directly contrasted to identify models best capturing in vivo dynamics, a technique that can aid model selection more generally. Our technique robustly determines our cell populations' motility strategies, and paves the way for simulations that incorporate accurate immune cell motility dynamics.

Dataset Information

The DIOS framework for optimizing infectious disease surveillance: Numerical methods for simulation and multi-objective optimization of surveillance network architectures.

Publications

The DIOS framework for optimizing infectious disease surveillance: Numerical methods for simulation and multi-objective optimization of surveillance network architectures.

Similar Datasets

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