C-reactive protein for simple prediction of mortality in patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A retrospective analysis.
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ABSTRACT: Abstract
In upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), scoring systems using multiple variables were developed to predict patient outcomes. We evaluated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) for simple prediction of patient mortality after acute non-variceal UGIB.The associated factors for 30-day mortality was investigated by regression analysis in patients with acute non-variceal UGIB (N?=?1232). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve was analyzed with serum CRP in these patients and a prospective cohort (N?=?435). The discriminant validity of serum CRP was compared to other prognostic scoring systems by means of AUROC curve analysis.Serum CRP was significantly higher in the expired than survived patients (median, 4.53 vs 0.49; P?
SUBMITTER: Park SH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7748191 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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C-reactive protein for simple prediction of mortality in patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A retrospective analysis.
Park Se Hwan SH Mun Yoon Gwon YG Lim Chul-Hyun CH Cho Yu Kyung YK Park Jae Myung JM
Medicine 20201201 51
<h4>Abstract</h4>In upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), scoring systems using multiple variables were developed to predict patient outcomes. We evaluated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) for simple prediction of patient mortality after acute non-variceal UGIB.The associated factors for 30-day mortality was investigated by regression analysis in patients with acute non-variceal UGIB (N = 1232). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve was analyzed with serum CRP in th ...[more]
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Project description:Blood transfusion remains an integral step in the management of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NV-UGIB), but its safety is being increasingly questioned in less severe cases. The authors aimed to measure 30-day and 2-year mortalities after blood transfusion for NV-UGIB.Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of blood transfusion with mortality while adjusting for age, Charlson comorbidity score, the complete Rockall score for acute UGIB, admission status and medication intake prior to bleeding.Death from any cause at 30 days and 2 years after NV-UGIB.1340 patients presented with NV-UGIB< (808 men (60.3%), median age 67 years) of whom 564 (42.1%) were transfused. The overall mortality was 5.3% at 30 days and 26.0% at 2 years in all patients. Comparing subjects with a haemoglobin concentration greater than 10.0 g/dl who were transfused with those who were not, 30-day mortalities (95% CIs) were 11.5% (6.7 to 18.0) versus 3.6% (2.3 to 5.3), respectively, p<0.001, and 2-year mortalities (95% CIs) were 40% (32 to 49) versus 20% (17 to 23), p<0.001. After adjusting for age, Charlson score, Rockall score and haemoglobin, the HRs (95% CIs) for death after transfusion were 1.88 (1.00 to 3.55) (p=0.051) at 30 days and 1.71 (1.28 to 2.28), (p<0.001) at 2 years.In patients with moderately severe NV-UGIB, mortality is higher following blood transfusion. Whether this reflects selection bias, an effect of comorbidity or an effect of transfusion requires urgent prospective study.
| S-EPMC5517239 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department.MethodsA total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score.ResultsAmong 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794-0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model.ConclusionsThe nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.
| S-EPMC8236237 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIt is unclear whether an upper gastrointestinal bleed is an isolated gastrointestinal event or an indicator of a deterioration in a patient's overall health status. Therefore, we investigated the excess causes of death in individuals after a non-variceal bleed compared with deaths in a matched sample of the general population.Methods and findingsLinked longitudinal data from the English Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data, General Practice Research Database (GPRD), and Office of National Statistics death register were used to define a cohort of non-variceal bleeds between 1997 and 2010. Controls were matched at the start of the study by age, sex, practice, and year. The excess risk of each cause of death in the 5 years subsequent to a bleed was then calculated whilst adjusting for competing risks using cumulative incidence functions. 16,355 patients with a non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleed were matched to 81,523 controls. The total 5-year risk of death due to gastrointestinal causes (malignant or non-malignant) ranged from 3.6% (≤ 50 years, 95% CI 3.0%-4.3%) to 15.2% (≥ 80 years, 14.2%-16.3%), representing an excess over controls of between 3.6% (3.0%-4.2%) and 13.4% (12.4%-14.5%), respectively. In contrast the total 5-year risk of death due to non-gastrointestinal causes ranged from 4.1% (≤ 50 years, 3.4%-4.8%) to 46.6% (≥ 80 years, 45.2%-48.1%), representing an excess over controls of between 3.8% (3.1%-4.5%) and 19.0% (17.5%-20.6%), respectively. The main limitation of this study was potential misclassification of the exposure and outcome; however, we sought to minimise this by using information derived across multiple linked datasets.ConclusionsDeaths from all causes were increased following an upper gastrointestinal bleed compared to matched controls, and over half the excess risk of death was due to seemingly unrelated co-morbidity. A non-variceal bleed may therefore warrant a careful assessment of co-morbid illness seemingly unrelated to the bleed.
| S-EPMC3640094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the most common etiology of which is peptic ulcer disease, remains a persistent challenge despite a reduction in both its incidence and mortality. Both pharmacologic and endoscopic techniques have been developed to achieve hemostasis, with varying degrees of success. Among the pharmacologic therapies, proton pump inhibitors remain the mainstay of treatment, as they reduce the risk of rebleeding and requirement for recurrent endoscopic evaluation. Tranexamic acid, a derivative of the amino acid lysine, is an antifibrinolytic agent whose role requires further investigation before application. Endoscopically delivered pharmacotherapy, including Hemospray (Cook Medical), EndoClot (EndoClot Plus Inc.), and Ankaferd Blood Stopper (Ankaferd Health Products), in addition to standard epinephrine, show promise in this regard, although their mechanisms of action require further investigation. Non-pharmacologic endoscopic techniques use one of the following two methods to achieve hemostasis: ablation or mechanical tamponade, which may involve using endoscopic clips, cautery, argon plasma coagulation, over-the-scope clipping devices, radiofrequency ablation, and cryotherapy. This review aimed to highlight these novel and fundamental hemostatic strategies and the research supporting their efficacy.
| S-EPMC5066413 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPatients undergoing dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may experience recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). We investigated the clinical characteristics and risk factors for recurrent non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) in patients who had experienced NVUGIB while receiving DAPT.MethodsWe enrolled patients diagnosed with NVUGIB while receiving DAPT between 2006 and 2020. Definite bleeding was confirmed by esophagogastroduodenoscopy in all NVUGIB patients.ResultsA total of 124 patients were diagnosed with NVUGIB while receiving DAPT. They were predominantly male (n = 103, 83.1%), bleeding mostly from the stomach (n = 94, 75.8%) and had peptic ulcers (n = 72, 58.1%). After the successful hemostasis of NVUGIB, 36 patients (29.0%) experienced at least one episode of recurrent upper GIB, 19 patients (15.3%) died, and 7 (5.6%) patients had a bleeding-related death. Multivariate analysis showed that age was a significant factor for re-bleeding (odds ratio [OR], 1.050; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.001-1.102; p-value: 0.047), all-cause mortality (OR, 1.096; 95% CI: 1.020-1.178, p = 0.013), and re-bleeding-related mortality (OR, 1.187; 95% CI: 1.032-1.364, p-value: 0.016). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the cumulative probabilities of re-bleeding, death, and bleeding-related death were significantly higher in patients aged 70 and older (p = 0.008, <0.001, and 0.009, respectively).ConclusionsClinicians should be cautious about re-bleeding and mortality in elderly patients who experience NVUGIB while receiving DAPT.
| S-EPMC10670490 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to identify the clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic features associated with in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), focusing on cross-validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (RS), and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) scoring systems.MethodsOur prospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with AUGIB. Several statistical approaches were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the scoring systems.ResultsAll three scoring systems were able to accurately predict in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] > 0.9); however, the multiple logistic model separated the presence of hemodynamic instability (state of shock) and the CSMCPI as the only significant predictive risk factors. In compliance with the overall results, the CSMCPI was consistently found to be superior to the other two systems (highest AUC, highest sensitivity and specificity, highest positive and negative predictive values, highest positive likelihood ratio, lowest negative likelihood ratio, and 1-unit increase in CSMCPI associated with 6.3 times higher odds of mortality), outperforming the GBS and full RS.ConclusionsWe suggest consideration of the CSMCPI as a readily available and reliable tool for accurately predicting in-hospital mortality after AUGIB, thus providing an essential backbone in clinical decision-making.
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Project description:BackgroundNon-variceal upper gastro-intestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is a common and challenging emergency situation. We aimed to describe the characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with NVUGIB in Greece.MethodsENERGIB (NCT00797641) was an epidemiological survey conducted in 7 European countries including Greece. It included adult patients with overt NVUGIB from 10 tertiary hospitals across Greece. Data for each patient were collected on admission and up to 30 days thereafter.Results201 patients were enrolled. A previous history of NVUGIB was reported by 14% of patients, while 61% had ≥ 1 co-morbidities. At presentation, 59% were on therapy that could harm the gastrointestinal mucosa, 14% on anticoagulant(s) and 42% had sign(s) of hemodynamic instability. 54% of patients showed stigmata of recent hemorrhage. Therapeutic endoscopy was performed in 25% and blood product(s) transfusions were required in 86% of cases. Proton pump inhibitors were administered before and after endoscopy in 70% and 95% of patients, respectively. Uncontrolled bleeding or rebleeding was observed in 11% being more common in elderly, hospitalized patients and patients with ≥1 co-morbidities. Second-look endoscopy was performed in 20%, angiographic intervention in 1.5% and surgical intervention in 4% of patients. Only 5/201 (2.5%) patients died during hospitalization and none died during the 30-day post-hospitalization period.ConclusionsThe majority of patients with NVUGIB in tertiary Greek hospitals are elderly, with co-morbidities, hemodynamic instability and required transfusion(s), while one fourth undergoes therapeutic endoscopic interventions. However, NVUGIB is associated with moderate degrees of continued bleeding/re-bleeding, low surgical rates and, most importantly, low mortality.
| S-EPMC3959428 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThis study aims to construct a mortality prediction model for patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) in the intensive care unit (ICU), employing advanced machine learning algorithms. The goal is to identify high-risk populations early, contributing to a deeper understanding of patients with NVUGIB in the ICU.MethodsWe extracted NVUGIB data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, v.2.2) database spanning from 2008 to 2019. Feature selection was conducted through LASSO regression, followed by training models using 11 machine learning methods. The best model was chosen based on the area under the curve (AUC). Subsequently, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was employed to elucidate how each factor influenced the model. Finally, a case was randomly selected, and the model was utilized to predict its mortality, demonstrating the practical application of the developed model.ResultsIn total, 2716 patients with NVUGIB were deemed eligible for participation. Following selection, 30 out of a total of 64 clinical parameters collected on day 1 after ICU admission remained associated with prognosis and were utilized for developing machine learning models. Among the 11 constructed models, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model demonstrated the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.853 and an accuracy of 0.839 in the validation cohort. Feature importance analysis highlighted that shock, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), renal disease, age, albumin, and alanine aminotransferase (ALP) were the top six features of the GBDT model with the most significant impact. Furthermore, SHAP force analysis illustrated how the constructed model visualized the individualized prediction of death.ConclusionsPatient data from the MIMIC database were leveraged to develop a robust prognostic model for patients with NVUGIB in the ICU. The analysis using SHAP also assisted clinicians in gaining a deeper understanding of the disease.
| S-EPMC11365121 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecently, amongst other hemostatic modalities, Hemospray (TC-325) has emerged as an effective method for managing patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of Hemospray in patients with non-variceal upper GIB.MethodsOur primary outcomes were clinical and technical success; secondary outcomes were aggregate rebleeding, early rebleeding, delayed rebleeding, refractory bleeding, mortality, and treatment failure. A meta-analysis of proportions was conducted for all reported primary and secondary outcomes. A relative risk meta-analysis was conducted for studies reporting direct comparisons between Hemospray and other hemostatic measures.ResultsA total of 20 studies with 1280 patients were included in the final analysis. Technical success of Hemospray was seen in 97% of cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 94-98%, I 2=52.89%) and a significant trend towards increasing technical success was seen during publication years 2011-2019. Clinical success of Hemospray was seen in 91% of cases (95%CI 88-94%, I 2=47.72%), compared to 87% (95%CI 75-94%, I 2=0.00%) for other hemostatic measures. The secondary outcomes of aggregate rebleeding, early rebleeding, delayed rebleeding, refractory rebleeding, mortality and treatment failure following the use of Hemospray were seen in 27%, 20%, 9%, 8%, 8%, and 31% of cases, respectively.ConclusionHemospray is safe, effective and non-inferior to traditional hemostatic measures for the management of non-variceal upper GIB, and can thus be used as an alternative option.
| S-EPMC7049242 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Clinical risk-scoring systems are important for identifying patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who are at a high risk of hemodynamic instability. We developed an algorithm that predicts adverse events in patients with initially stable non-variceal UGIB using machine learning (ML). Using prospective observational registry, 1439 out of 3363 consecutive patients were enrolled. Primary outcomes included adverse events such as mortality, hypotension, and rebleeding within 7 days. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, logistic regression with regularization (LR), random forest classifier (RF), gradient boosting classifier (GB), and voting classifier (VC), were compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall scores. The RF model showed the highest accuracies and significant improvement over conventional methods for predicting mortality (area under the curve: RF 0.917 vs. GBS 0.710), but the performance of the VC model was best in hypotension (VC 0.757 vs. GBS 0.668) and rebleeding within 7 days (VC 0.733 vs. GBS 0.694). Clinically significant variables including blood urea nitrogen, albumin, hemoglobin, platelet, prothrombin time, age, and lactate were identified by the global feature importance analysis. These results suggest that ML models will be useful early predictive tools for identifying high-risk patients with initially stable non-variceal UGIB admitted at an emergency department.
| S-EPMC7464777 | biostudies-literature