Dataset Information

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: cross-validation of several risk scoring systems.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

We aimed to identify the clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic features associated with in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), focusing on cross-validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (RS), and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) scoring systems.

Methods

Our prospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with AUGIB. Several statistical approaches were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the scoring systems.

Results

All three scoring systems were able to accurately predict in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] > 0.9); however, the multiple logistic model separated the presence of hemodynamic instability (state of shock) and the CSMCPI as the only significant predictive risk factors. In compliance with the overall results, the CSMCPI was consistently found to be superior to the other two systems (highest AUC, highest sensitivity and specificity, highest positive and negative predictive values, highest positive likelihood ratio, lowest negative likelihood ratio, and 1-unit increase in CSMCPI associated with 6.3 times higher odds of mortality), outperforming the GBS and full RS.

Conclusions

We suggest consideration of the CSMCPI as a readily available and reliable tool for accurately predicting in-hospital mortality after AUGIB, thus providing an essential backbone in clinical decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Benedeto-Stojanov D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8943321 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: cross-validation of several risk scoring systems.

Benedeto-Stojanov Daniela D Bjelaković Milica M Stojanov Dragan D Aleksovski Boris B

The Journal of international medical research 20220301 3

<h4>Objective</h4>We aimed to identify the clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic features associated with in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), focusing on cross-validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (RS), and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Predictive Index (CSMCPI) scoring systems.<h4>Methods</h4>Our prospective cross-sectional study included 156 patients with AUGIB. Several statistical approaches were used to assess the predictiv ...[more]

PMID: 35301889

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Project description:Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.

Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department.MethodsA total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score.ResultsAmong 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794-0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model.ConclusionsThe nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.

Project description:BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most common, high risk emergency disorders in the western world. Almost nothing has been reported on longer term prognosis following upper GI bleeding. The aim of this study was to establish mortality up to three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding and its relationship with aetiology, co-morbidities and socio-demographic factors.MethodsSystematic record linkage of hospital inpatient and mortality data for 14 212 people in Wales, UK, hospitalised with upper GI bleeding between 1999 and 2004 with three year follow-up to 2007. The main outcome measures were mortality rates, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative survival.ResultsMortality at three years was 36.7% overall, based on 5215 fatalities. It was highest for upper GI malignancy (95% died within three years) and varices (52%). Compared with the general population, mortality was increased 27-fold during the first month after admission. It fell to 4.3 by month four, but remained significantly elevated during every month throughout the three years following admission. The most important independent prognostic predictors of mortality at three years were older age (mortality increased 53 fold for people aged 85 years and over compared with those under 40 years); oesophageal and gastric/duodenal malignancy (48 and 32 respectively) and gastric varices aetiologies (2.8) when compared with other bleeds; non-upper GI malignancy, liver disease and renal failure co-morbidities (15, 7.9 and 3.9); social deprivation (29% increase for quintile V vs I); incident bleeds as an inpatient (31% vs admitted with bleeding) and male patients (25% vs female).ConclusionOur study shows a high late as well as early mortality for upper GI bleeding, with very poor longer term prognosis following bleeding due to malignancies and varices. Aetiologies with the worst prognosis were often associated with high levels of social deprivation.

Dataset Information

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: cross-validation of several risk scoring systems.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction of in-hospital mortality after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: cross-validation of several risk scoring systems.

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