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Optimal voluntary and mandatory insect repellent usage and emigration strategies to control the chikungunya outbreak on Reunion Island.

ABSTRACT: In 2005, a chikungunya virus outbreak devastated the tropical island of Reunion, infecting a third of the total population. Motivated by the Reunion Island case study, we investigate the theoretic potential for two intervention measures under both voluntary and mandatory protocols to control a vector-borne disease when there is risk of the disease becoming endemic. The first measure uses insect repellent to prevent mosquito bites, while the second involves emigrating to the neighboring Mauritius Island to avoid infection. There is a threshold on the cost of using repellent above which both voluntary and mandatory regimes find it optimal to forgo usage. Below that threshold, mandatory usage protocols will eradicate the disease; however, voluntary adoption leaves the disease at a small endemic level. Emigrating from the island to avoid infection results in a tragedy-of-the-commons effect: while being potentially beneficial to specific susceptible individuals, the remaining islanders paradoxically face a higher risk of infection. Mandated relocation of susceptible individuals away from the epidemic is viable only if the cost of this relocation is several magnitudes lower than the cost of infection. Since this assumption is unlikely to hold for chikungunya, it is optimal to discourage such emigration for the benefit of the entire population. An underlying assumption about the conservation of human-vector encounter rates in mosquito biting behavior informs our conclusions and may warrant additional experimental verification.

SUBMITTER: Klein SRM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7750003 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimal voluntary and mandatory insect repellent usage and emigration strategies to control the chikungunya outbreak on Reunion Island.

Klein Sylvia R M SRM Foster Alex O AO Feagins David A DA Rowell Jonathan T JT Erovenko Igor V IV

PeerJ 20201217

In 2005, a chikungunya virus outbreak devastated the tropical island of Reunion, infecting a third of the total population. Motivated by the Reunion Island case study, we investigate the theoretic potential for two intervention measures under both voluntary and mandatory protocols to control a vector-borne disease when there is risk of the disease becoming endemic. The first measure uses insect repellent to prevent mosquito bites, while the second involves emigrating to the neighboring Mauritius ...[more]

PMID: 33362952

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Project description:BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) is responsible for acute febrile polyarthralgia and, in a proportion of cases, severe complications including chronic arthritis. CHIKV has spread recently in East Africa, South-West Indian Ocean, South-Asia and autochthonous cases have been reported in Europe. Although almost all patients are outpatients, medical investigations mainly focused on hospitalised patients.Methodology/principal findingsHere, we detail clinico-biological characteristics of Chikungunya (CHIK) outpatients in Reunion Island (2006). 76 outpatients with febrile arthralgia diagnosed within less than 48 hours were included by general practitioners during the CuraChik clinical trial. CHIK was confirmed in 54 patients and excluded in 22. A detailed clinical and biological follow-up was organised, that included analysis of viral intrahost diversity and telephone survey until day 300. The evolution of acute CHIK included 2 stages: the 'viral stage' (day 1-day 4) was associated with rapid decrease of viraemia and improvement of clinical presentation; the 'convalescent stage' (day 5-day 14) was associated with no detectable viraemia but a slower clinical improvement. Women and elderly had a significantly higher number of arthralgia at inclusion and at day 300. Based on the study clinico-biological dataset, scores for CHIK diagnosis in patients with recent febrile acute polyarthralgia were elaborated using arthralgia on hands and wrists, a minor or absent myalgia and the presence of lymphopenia (<1G/L) as major orientation criteria. Finally, we observed that CHIKV intra-host genetic diversity increased over time and that a higher viral amino-acid complexity at the acute stage was associated with increased number of arthralgia and intensity of sequelae at day 300.Conclusions/significanceThis study provided a detailed picture of clinico-biological CHIK evolution at the acute phase of the disease, allowed the elaboration of scores to assist CHIK diagnosis and investigated for the first time the impact of viral intra-host genetic diversity on the disease course.

Project description:BackgroundAn outbreak of chikungunya virus affected over one-third of the population of La Réunion Island between March 2005 and December 2006. In June 2005, we identified the first case of mother-to-child chikungunya virus transmission at the Groupe Hospitalier Sud-Réunion level-3 maternity department. The goal of this prospective study was to characterize the epidemiological, clinical, biological, and radiological features and outcomes of all the cases of vertically transmitted chikungunya infections recorded at our institution during this outbreak.Methods and findingsOver 22 mo, 7,504 women delivered 7,629 viable neonates; 678 (9.0%) of these parturient women were infected (positive RT-PCR or IgM serology) during antepartum, and 61 (0.8%) in pre- or intrapartum. With the exception of three early fetal deaths, vertical transmission was exclusively observed in near-term deliveries (median duration of gestation: 38 wk, range 35-40 wk) in the context of intrapartum viremia (19 cases of vertical transmission out of 39 women with intrapartum viremia, prevalence rate 0.25%, vertical transmission rate 48.7%). Cesarean section had no protective effect on transmission. All infected neonates were asymptomatic at birth, and median onset of neonatal disease was 4 d (range 3-7 d). Pain, prostration, and fever were present in 100% of cases and thrombocytopenia in 89%. Severe illness was observed in ten cases (52.6%) and mainly consisted of encephalopathy (n = 9; 90%). These nine children had pathologic MRI findings (brain swelling, n = 9; cerebral hemorrhages, n = 2), and four evolved towards persistent disabilities.ConclusionsMother-to-child chikungunya virus transmission is frequent in the context of intrapartum maternal viremia, and often leads to severe neonatal infection. Chikungunya represents a substantial risk for neonates born to viremic parturients that should be taken into account by clinicians and public health authorities in the event of a chikungunya outbreak.

Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the neurocognitive outcome in children exposed to perinatal mother-to-child Chikungunya virus (p-CHIKV) infection.MethodsThe CHIMERE ambispective cohort study compared the neurocognitive function of 33 p-CHIKV-infected children (all but one enrolled retrospectively) at around two years of age with 135 uninfected peers (all enrolled prospectively). Psychomotor development was assessed using the revised Brunet-Lezine scale, examiners blinded to infectious status. Development quotients (DQ) with subscores covering movement/posture, coordination, language, sociability skills were calculated. Predictors of global neurodevelopmental delay (GND, DQ ≤ 85), were investigated using multivariate Poisson regression modeling. Neuroradiologic follow-up using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans was proposed for most of the children with severe forms.ResultsThe mean DQ score was 86.3 (95%CI: 81.0-91.5) in infected children compared to 100.2 (95%CI: 98.0-102.5) in uninfected peers (P<0.001). Fifty-one percent (n = 17) of infected children had a GND compared to 15% (n = 21) of uninfected children (P<0.001). Specific neurocognitive delays in p-CHIKV-infected children were as follows: coordination and language (57%), sociability (36%), movement/posture (27%). After adjustment for maternal social situation, small for gestational age, and head circumference, p-CHIKV infection was found associated with GND (incidence rate ratio: 2.79, 95%CI: 1.45-5.34). Further adjustments on gestational age or breastfeeding did not change the independent effect of CHIKV infection on neurocognitive outcome. The mean DQ of p-CHIKV-infected children was lower in severe encephalopathic children than in non-severe children (77.6 versus 91.2, P<0.001). Of the 12 cases of CHIKV neonatal encephalopathy, five developed a microcephaly (head circumference <-2 standard deviations) and four matched the definition of cerebral palsy. MRI scans showed severe restrictions of white matter areas, predominant in the frontal lobes in these children.ConclusionsThe neurocognitive outcome of children exposed to perinatal mother-to-child CHIKV infection is poor. Severe CHIKV neonatal encephalopathy is associated with an even poorer outcome.

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Optimal voluntary and mandatory insect repellent usage and emigration strategies to control the chikungunya outbreak on Reunion Island.

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Optimal voluntary and mandatory insect repellent usage and emigration strategies to control the chikungunya outbreak on Reunion Island.

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