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Evaluating trends and seasonality in modeled PM_2.5 concentrations using empirical mode decomposition.

ABSTRACT: Regional-scale air quality models are being used for studying the sources, composition, transport, transformation, and deposition of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). The availability of decadal air quality simulations provides a unique opportunity to explore sophisticated model evaluation techniques rather than relying solely on traditional operational evaluations. In this study, we propose a new approach for process-based model evaluation of speciated PM_2.5 using improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (improved CEEMDAN) to assess how well version 5.0.2 of the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model-Community Multiscale Air Quality model (WRF-CMAQ) simulates the time-dependent long-term trend and cyclical variations in daily average PM_2.5 and its species, including sulfate (SO₄), nitrate (NO₃), ammonium (NH₄), chloride (Cl), organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC). The utility of the proposed approach for model evaluation is demonstrated using PM_2.5 data at three monitoring locations. At these locations, the model is generally more capable of simulating the rate of change in the long-term trend component than its absolute magnitude. Amplitudes of the sub-seasonal and annual cycles of total PM_2.5, SO₄, and OC are well reproduced. However, the time-dependent phase difference in the annual cycles for total PM_2.5, OC, and EC reveals a phase shift of up to half a year, indicating the need for proper temporal allocation of emissions and for updating the treatment of organic aerosols compared to the model version used for this set of simulations. Evaluation of sub-seasonal and interannual variations indicates that CMAQ is more capable of replicating the sub-seasonal cycles than interannual variations in magnitude and phase.

SUBMITTER: Luo H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7751620 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Fine particulate matter is considered to be the most significant ambient air pollutant in terms of potential health impacts. Therefore, it is important that regulators are able to accurately assess the exposure of populations to PM10 and PM2.5 across municipal areas. We report on the practicalities of using a laser light scattering portable particulate monitor (Turnkey Instruments DustMate), in combination with a GPS, to map PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations on city-wide scales in Newcastle upon Tyne/Gateshead (UK), during a series of walking surveys. A heated inlet is necessary to remove moisture droplets from the sampled air prior to analysis by the instrument, though this also results in the loss of volatile particulate components, particularly from the PM2.5 fraction. A co-location calibration study was carried out with a reference urban background Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-Balance/Filter Dynamics Measuring System (TEOM-FDMS) system in Newcastle that is part of the UK's Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) of air quality monitoring stations. For PM10, orthogonal regression of the DustMate against TEOM-FDMS data gave a slope and intercept of 1.02 ± 0.06 and -3.7 ± 1.2, respectively (R2 = 0.73), whereas for PM2.5, the respective values were 0.78 ± 0.06 and -0.63 ± 0.55 (R2 = 0.79). These parameters are comparable to literature calibration studies using this technology. There was good agreement between simultaneous samples taken using two DustMate instruments: for PM10, a slope and intercept of 1.05 ± 0.03 and 0.36 ± 0.5, respectively (R2 = 0.73), were obtained, whereas for the PM2.5, the respective values were 0.79 ± 0.01 and 0.19 ± 0.06 (R2 = 0.86). Correction factors based on the slope and intercepts obtained from the calibration exercise were applied to raw data collected from the DustMate. An annually-normalised correction procedure was then used to account for different background particulate concentrations on different sampling days. These corrected PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations and corresponding GPS coordinates were displayed on a base map using Google Fusion Tables and Google Earth Professional. Almost all areas surveyed in Newcastle/Gateshead were well below the EU Air Quality Standards for PM10 and PM2.5.

Project description:IntroductionDespite the London Underground (LU) handling on average 2.8 million passenger journeys per day, the characteristics and potential health effects of the elevated concentrations of metal-rich PM2.5 found in this subway system are not well understood.MethodsSpatial monitoring campaigns were carried out to characterise the health-relevant chemical and physical properties of PM2.5 across the LU network, including diurnal and day-to-day variability and spatial distribution (above ground, depth below ground and subway line). Population-weighted station PM2.5 rankings were produced to understand the relative importance of concentrations at different stations and on different lines.ResultsThe PM2.5 mass in the LU (mean 88??g?m-3, median 28??g?m-3) was greater than at ambient background locations (mean 19??g?m-3, median 14??g?m-3) and roadside environments in central London (mean 22??g?m-3, median 14??g?m-3). Concentrations varied between lines and locations, with the deepest and shallowest submerged lines being the District (median 4??g?m-3) and Victoria (median 361??g?m-3 but up to 885??g?m-3). Broadly in agreement with other subway systems around the world, sampled LU PM2.5 comprised 47% iron oxide, 7% elemental carbon, 11% organic carbon, and 14% metallic and mineral oxides. Although a relationship between line depth and air quality inside the tube trains was evident, there were clear influences relating to the distance from cleaner outside air and the exchange with cabin air when the doors open. The passenger population-weighted exposure analysis demonstrated a method to identify stations that should be prioritised for remediation to improve air quality.ConclusionPM2.5 concentrations in the LU are many times higher than in other London transport Environments. Failure to include this environment in epidemiological studies of the relationship between PM2.5 and health in London is therefore likely to lead to a large exposure misclassification error. Given the significant contribution of underground PM2.5 to daily exposure, and the differences in composition compared to urban PM2.5, there is a clear need for well-designed studies to better understand the health effects of underground exposure.

Project description:Wildland fires are a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the most harmful ambient pollutants for human health globally. To represent the influence of wildland fire emissions on atmospheric composition, regional and global chemical transport models rely on emission inventories developed from estimates of burned area (i.e. fire size and location). While different methods of estimating annual burned area agree reasonably well in the western U.S. (within 20-30% for most years during 2002-2014), estimates for the southern U.S. can vary by more than a factor of 5. These differences in burned area lead to significant variability in the spatial and temporal allocation of emissions across fire emission inventory platforms. In this work, we implement wildland fire emission estimates for 2011 from three different products - the USEPA National Emission Inventory (NEI), the Fire Inventory of NCAR (FINN), and the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED4s) - into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to quantify and characterize differences in simulated PM and ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) due to the fire emission inventory used. The NEI is developed specifically for the U.S., while both FINN and GFED4s are available globally. We find that NEI emissions lead to the largest increases in modeled annual average PM2.5 (0.85 μg m-3) and April-September maximum daily 8-h ozone (0.28 ppb) nationally compared to a "no fire" baseline, followed by FINN (0.33 μg m-3 and 0.22 ppb) and GFED4s (0.12 μg m-3 and 0.17 ppb). Annual mean enhancements in wildland fire pollution are highest in the southern U.S. across all three inventories (over 4 μg m-3 and 2 ppb in some areas), but show considerable spatial variability within these regions. We also examine the representation of five individual fire events during 2011 and find that of the two global inventories, FINN reproduces more of the acute changes in pollutant concentrations modeled with NEI and shown in surface observations during each of the episodes investigated compared to GFED4s. Understanding the sensitivity of modeling fire-related PM2.5 and ozone in the U.S. to burned area estimation approaches will inform future efforts to assess the implications of present and future fire activity for air quality and human health at national and global scales.

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Evaluating trends and seasonality in modeled PM_2.5 concentrations using empirical mode decomposition.

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Dataset Information

Evaluating trends and seasonality in modeled PM2.5 concentrations using empirical mode decomposition.

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OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

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Evaluating trends and seasonality in modeled PM_2.5 concentrations using empirical mode decomposition.