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Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

ABSTRACT: Reported median overall survival (mOS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients participating in systemic therapy trials has increased to over 30?months. It is uncertain whether trial results translate to real-life populations. Moreover, patients prefer presentation of multiple survival scenarios. Population-based data of all stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, which has a case ascertainment completeness surpassing 95%. We calculated the following percentiles (scenarios) of OS per year of diagnosis for the total population, and for treatment subgroups: 10th (best-case), 25th (upper-typical), 50th (median), 75th (lower-typical) and 90th (worst-case). Twenty-five percent of patients did not receive any antitumor treatment. From 2008 to 2016, mOS of the total population (n = 27275) remained unchanged at approximately 12?months. OS improved only for the upper-typical and best-case patients; by 4.2 to 29.1 months (P

SUBMITTER: Hamers PAH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7754475 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

Hamers Patricia A H PAH Elferink Marloes A G MAG Stellato Rebecca K RK Punt Cornelis J A CJA May Anne M AM Koopman Miriam M Vink Geraldine R GR

International journal of cancer 20200720 2

Reported median overall survival (mOS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients participating in systemic therapy trials has increased to over 30 months. It is uncertain whether trial results translate to real-life populations. Moreover, patients prefer presentation of multiple survival scenarios. Population-based data of all stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, which has a case ascertainment completeness surpassing 95%. ...[more]

PMID: 32638384

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Project description:Randomized clinical trials constitute the gold-standard for evaluating new anti-cancer therapies; however, real-life data are key in complementing clinically useful information. We developed a computational tool for real-life data analysis and applied it to the metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) setting. This tool addressed the impact of oncology/non-oncology parameters on treatment patterns and clinical outcomes.The developed tool enables extraction of any computerized information including comorbidities and use of drugs (oncological/non-oncological) per individual HMO member. The study in which we evaluated this tool was a retrospective cohort study that included Maccabi Healthcare Services members with mCRC receiving bevacizumab with fluoropyrimidines (FP), FP plus oxaliplatin (FP-O), or FP plus irinotecan (FP-I) in the first-line between 9/2006 and 12/2013.The analysis included 753 patients of whom 15.4% underwent subsequent metastasectomy (the Surgery group). For the entire cohort, median overall survival (OS) was 20.5 months; in the Surgery group, median duration of bevacizumab-containing therapy (DOT) pre-surgery was 6.1 months; median OS was not reached. In the Non-surgery group, median OS and DOT were 18.7 and 11.4 months, respectively; no significant OS differences were noted between FP-O and FP-I, whereas FP use was associated with shorter OS (12.3 month; p <0.002; notably, these patients were older). Patients who received both FP-O- and FP-I-based regimens achieved numerically longer OS vs. those who received only one of these regimens (22.1 [19.9-24.0] vs. 18.9 [15.5-21.9] months). Among patients assessed for wild-type KRAS and treated with subsequent anti-EGFR agent, OS was 25.4 months and 18.7 months for 124 treated vs. 37 non-treated patients (non-significant). Cox analysis (controlling for age and gender) identified several non-oncology parameters associated with poorer clinical outcomes including concurrent use of diuretics and proton-pump inhibitors.Our tool provided insights that confirmed/complemented information gained from randomized-clinical trials. Prospective tool implementation is warranted.

Project description:BackgroundHeatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.Methods and findingsWe collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.ConclusionsThis study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

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Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

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Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

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