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A Machine Learning Model Utilizing a Novel SNP Shows Enhanced Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity.

ABSTRACT: Background: Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful approach for predicting outcomes based on patterns and inferences. Improving prediction of severe coronary artery disease (CAD) has the potential for personalizing prevention and treatment strategies and for identifying individuals that may benefit from cardiac catheterization. We developed a novel ML approach combining traditional cardiac risk factors (CRF) with a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in a gene associated with human CAD (ID3 rs11574) to enhance prediction of CAD severity; Methods: ML models incorporating CRF along with ID3 genotype at rs11574 were evaluated. The most predictive model, a deep neural network, was used to classify patients into high (>32) and low level (?32) Gensini severity score. This model was trained on 325 and validated on 82 patients. Prediction performance of the model was summarized by a confusion matrix and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC); and Results: Our neural network predicted severity score with 81% and 87% accuracy for the low and the high groups respectively with an ROC-AUC of 0.84 for 82 patients in the test group. The addition of ID3 rs11574 to CRF significantly enhanced prediction accuracy from 65% to 81% in the low group, and 72% to 84% in the high group. Age, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and systolic blood pressure were the top 3 contributors in predicting severity score; Conclusions: Our neural network including ID3 rs11574 improved prediction of CAD severity over use of Framingham score, which may potentially be helpful for clinical decision making in patients at increased risk of complications from coronary angiography.

SUBMITTER: Pattarabanjird T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7760379 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Machine Learning Model Utilizing a Novel SNP Shows Enhanced Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity.

Pattarabanjird Tanyaporn T Cress Corban C Nguyen Anh A Taylor Angela A Bekiranov Stefan S McNamara Coleen C

Genes 20201201 12

<i>Background:</i> Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful approach for predicting outcomes based on patterns and inferences. Improving prediction of severe coronary artery disease (CAD) has the potential for personalizing prevention and treatment strategies and for identifying individuals that may benefit from cardiac catheterization. We developed a novel ML approach combining traditional cardiac risk factors (CRF) with a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in a gene associated with hu ...[more]

PMID: 33271747

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Project description:Our study aims to develop a data-driven framework utilizing heterogenous electronic medical and clinical records and advanced Machine Learning (ML) approaches for: (i) the identification of critical risk factors affecting the complexity of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD), as assessed via the SYNTAX score; and (ii) the development of ML prediction models for accurate estimation of the expected SYNTAX score. We propose a two-part modeling technique separating the process into two distinct phases: (a) a binary classification task for predicting, whether a patient is more likely to present with a non-zero SYNTAX score; and (b) a regression task to predict the expected SYNTAX score accountable to individual patients with a non-zero SYNTAX score. The framework is based on data collected from the GESS trial (NCT03150680) comprising electronic medical and clinical records for 303 adult patients with suspected CAD, having undergone invasive coronary angiography in AHEPA University Hospital of Thessaloniki, Greece. The deployment of the proposed approach demonstrated that atherogenic index of plasma levels, diabetes mellitus and hypertension can be considered as important risk factors for discriminating patients into zero- and non-zero SYNTAX score groups, whereas diastolic and systolic arterial blood pressure, peripheral vascular disease and body mass index can be considered as significant risk factors for providing an accurate estimation of the expected SYNTAX score, given that a patient belongs to the non-zero SYNTAX score group. The experimental findings utilizing the identified set of important risk factors indicate a sufficient prediction performance for the Support Vector Machine model (classification task) with an F-measure score of ~0.71 and the Support Vector Regression model (regression task) with a median absolute error value of ~6.5. The proposed data-driven framework described herein present evidence of the prediction capacity and the potential clinical usefulness of the developed risk-stratification models. However, further experimentation in a larger clinical setting is needed to ensure the practical utility of the presented models in a way to contribute to a more personalized management and counseling of CAD patients.

Project description:BackgroundArtificial intelligence (AI) techniques are increasingly applied to cardiovascular (CV) medicine in arenas ranging from genomics to cardiac imaging analysis. Cardiac Phase Space Tomography Analysis (cPSTA), employing machine-learned linear models from an elastic net method optimized by a genetic algorithm, analyzes thoracic phase signals to identify unique mathematical and tomographic features associated with the presence of flow-limiting coronary artery disease (CAD). This novel approach does not require radiation, contrast media, exercise, or pharmacological stress. The objective of this trial was to determine the diagnostic performance of cPSTA in assessing CAD in patients presenting with chest pain who had been referred by their physician for coronary angiography.MethodsThis prospective, multicenter, non-significant risk study was designed to: 1) develop machine-learned algorithms to assess the presence of CAD (defined as one or more ? 70% stenosis, or fractional flow reserve ? 0.80) and 2) test the accuracy of these algorithms prospectively in a naïve verification cohort. This report is an analysis of phase signals acquired from 606 subjects at rest just prior to angiography. From the collective phase signal data, features were extracted and paired with the known angiographic results. A development set, consisting of signals from 512 subjects, was used for machine learning to determine an algorithm that correlated with significant CAD. Verification testing of the algorithm was performed utilizing previously untested phase signals from 94 subjects.ResultsThe machine-learned algorithm had a sensitivity of 92% (95% CI: 74%-100%) and specificity of 62% (95% CI: 51%-74%) on blind testing in the verification cohort. The negative predictive value (NPV) was 96% (95% CI: 85%-100%).ConclusionsThese initial multicenter results suggest that resting cPSTA may have comparable diagnostic utility to functional tests currently used to assess CAD without requiring cardiac stress (exercise or pharmacological) or exposure of the patient to radioactivity.

Project description:Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a reliable predictor for future cardiovascular disease risk. Although deep learning studies using computed tomography (CT) images to predict CACS have been reported, no study has assessed the feasibility of machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the CACS using clinical variables in a healthy general population. Therefore, we aimed to assess whether ML algorithms other than binary logistic regression (BLR) could predict high CACS in a healthy population with general health examination data. This retrospective observational study included participants who had regular health screening including coronary CT angiography. High CACS was defined by the Agatston score ≥ 100. Univariable and multivariable BLR was performed to assess predictors for high CACS in the entire dataset. When performing ML prediction for high CACS, the dataset was randomly divided into a training and test dataset with a 7:3 ratio. BLR, catboost, and xgboost algorithms with 5-fold cross-validation and grid search technique were used to find the best performing classifier. Performance comparison of each ML algorithm was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. A total of 2133 participants were included in the final analysis. Mean age and proportion of male sex were 55.4 ± 11.3 years and 1483 (69.5%), respectively. In multivariable BLR analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.15, p < 0.001), male sex (OR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.57-5.38, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.03, p = 0.019), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00, p = 0.047) were significant predictors for high CACS. Performance in predicting high CACS of xgboost was AUROC of 0.823, followed by catboost (0.750) and BLR (0.585). The comparison of AUROC between xgboost and BLR was significant (p for AUROC comparison < 0.001). Xgboost ML algorithm was found to be a more reliable predictor of CACS in healthy participants compared to the BLR algorithm. ML algorithms may be useful for predicting CACS with only laboratory data in healthy participants.

Dataset Information

A Machine Learning Model Utilizing a Novel SNP Shows Enhanced Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity.

Publications

A Machine Learning Model Utilizing a Novel SNP Shows Enhanced Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity.

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