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A Risk-Stratification Machine Learning Framework for the Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity: Insights From the GESS Trial

ABSTRACT: Our study aims to develop a data-driven framework utilizing heterogenous electronic medical and clinical records and advanced Machine Learning (ML) approaches for: (i) the identification of critical risk factors affecting the complexity of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD), as assessed via the SYNTAX score; and (ii) the development of ML prediction models for accurate estimation of the expected SYNTAX score. We propose a two-part modeling technique separating the process into two distinct phases: (a) a binary classification task for predicting, whether a patient is more likely to present with a non-zero SYNTAX score; and (b) a regression task to predict the expected SYNTAX score accountable to individual patients with a non-zero SYNTAX score. The framework is based on data collected from the GESS trial (NCT03150680) comprising electronic medical and clinical records for 303 adult patients with suspected CAD, having undergone invasive coronary angiography in AHEPA University Hospital of Thessaloniki, Greece. The deployment of the proposed approach demonstrated that atherogenic index of plasma levels, diabetes mellitus and hypertension can be considered as important risk factors for discriminating patients into zero- and non-zero SYNTAX score groups, whereas diastolic and systolic arterial blood pressure, peripheral vascular disease and body mass index can be considered as significant risk factors for providing an accurate estimation of the expected SYNTAX score, given that a patient belongs to the non-zero SYNTAX score group. The experimental findings utilizing the identified set of important risk factors indicate a sufficient prediction performance for the Support Vector Machine model (classification task) with an F-measure score of ~0.71 and the Support Vector Regression model (regression task) with a median absolute error value of ~6.5. The proposed data-driven framework described herein present evidence of the prediction capacity and the potential clinical usefulness of the developed risk-stratification models. However, further experimentation in a larger clinical setting is needed to ensure the practical utility of the presented models in a way to contribute to a more personalized management and counseling of CAD patients.

SUBMITTER: Mittas N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8804295 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a reliable predictor for future cardiovascular disease risk. Although deep learning studies using computed tomography (CT) images to predict CACS have been reported, no study has assessed the feasibility of machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the CACS using clinical variables in a healthy general population. Therefore, we aimed to assess whether ML algorithms other than binary logistic regression (BLR) could predict high CACS in a healthy population with general health examination data. This retrospective observational study included participants who had regular health screening including coronary CT angiography. High CACS was defined by the Agatston score ≥ 100. Univariable and multivariable BLR was performed to assess predictors for high CACS in the entire dataset. When performing ML prediction for high CACS, the dataset was randomly divided into a training and test dataset with a 7:3 ratio. BLR, catboost, and xgboost algorithms with 5-fold cross-validation and grid search technique were used to find the best performing classifier. Performance comparison of each ML algorithm was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. A total of 2133 participants were included in the final analysis. Mean age and proportion of male sex were 55.4 ± 11.3 years and 1483 (69.5%), respectively. In multivariable BLR analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.15, p < 0.001), male sex (OR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.57-5.38, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.03, p = 0.019), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00, p = 0.047) were significant predictors for high CACS. Performance in predicting high CACS of xgboost was AUROC of 0.823, followed by catboost (0.750) and BLR (0.585). The comparison of AUROC between xgboost and BLR was significant (p for AUROC comparison < 0.001). Xgboost ML algorithm was found to be a more reliable predictor of CACS in healthy participants compared to the BLR algorithm. ML algorithms may be useful for predicting CACS with only laboratory data in healthy participants.

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A Risk-Stratification Machine Learning Framework for the Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity: Insights From the GESS Trial

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