Dataset Information

What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

ABSTRACT: Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China's crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding -25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding -10% and -5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO₂ on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China's crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change.

SUBMITTER: Huang C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7763021 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

Huang Chengfang C Li Ning N Zhang Zhengtao Z Liu Yuan Y Chen Xi X Wang Fang F Chen Qiong Q

International journal of environmental research and public health 20201210 24

Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China's crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level an ...[more]

PMID: 33321896

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Project description:Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (-1.2?<?SPI?<?-0.8), severe (-1.5?<?SPI?<?-1.3), extreme (-1.9?<?SPI?<?-1.6) and exceptional (SPI?<?-2.0) drought. Results show that there is >80% probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9%-12%, 5.6%-6.3%, 18.1%-19.4% and 15.1%-16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO2 fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest.

Dataset Information

What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

Publications

What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

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