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Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

ABSTRACT: Background Life expectancy in the United States has recently declined, in part attributable to premature cardiometabolic mortality. We characterized national trends in premature cardiometabolic mortality, overall, and by race-sex groups. Methods and Results Using death certificates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, we quantified premature deaths (<65 years of age) from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus from 1999 to 2018. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) from each cardiometabolic cause occurring at <65 years of age. We used Joinpoint regression to identify an inflection point in overall cardiometabolic AAMR trends. Average annual percent change in AAMRs and YPLL was quantified before and after the identified inflection point. From 1999 to 2018, annual premature deaths from heart disease (117 880 to 128 832), cerebrovascular disease (18 765 to 20 565), and diabetes mellitus (16 553 to 24 758) as an underlying cause of death increased. By 2018, 19.7% of all heart disease deaths, 13.9% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths, and 29.1% of all diabetes mellitus deaths were premature. AAMRs and YPLL from heart disease and cerebrovascular disease declined until the inflection point identified in 2011, then remained unchanged through 2018. Conversely, AAMRs and YPLL from diabetes mellitus did not change through 2011, then increased through 2018. Black men and women had higher AAMRs and greater YPLL for each cardiometabolic cause compared with White men and women, respectively. Conclusions Over one-fifth of cardiometabolic deaths occurred at <65 years of age. Recent stagnation in cardiometabolic AAMRs and YPLL are compounded by persistent racial disparities.

SUBMITTER: Shah NS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7763768 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

Shah Nilay S NS Lloyd-Jones Donald M DM Kandula Namratha R NR Huffman Mark D MD Capewell Simon S O'Flaherty Martin M Kershaw Kiarri N KN Carnethon Mercedes R MR Khan Sadiya S SS

Journal of the American Heart Association 20201123 23

Background Life expectancy in the United States has recently declined, in part attributable to premature cardiometabolic mortality. We characterized national trends in premature cardiometabolic mortality, overall, and by race-sex groups. Methods and Results Using death certificates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, we quantified premature deaths (<65 years of age) from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes me ...[more]

PMID: 33222597

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To describe trends in the burden of mortality due to subtypes of heart disease from 1999 to 2018 to inform targeted prevention strategies and reduce disparities. DESIGN:Serial cross sectional analysis of cause specific heart disease mortality rates using national death certificate data in the overall population as well as stratified by race-sex, age, and geography. SETTING:United States, 1999-2018. PARTICIPANTS:12.9 million decedents from total heart disease (49% women, 12% black, and 19% <65 years old). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) for each heart disease subtype, and respective mean annual percentage change. RESULTS:Deaths from total heart disease fell from 752?192 to 596?577 between 1999 and 2011, and then increased to 655?381 in 2018. From 1999 to 2018, the proportion of total deaths from heart disease attributed to ischemic heart disease decreased from 73% to 56%, while the proportion attributed to heart failure increased from 8% to 13% and the proportion attributed to hypertensive heart disease increased from 4% to 9%. Among heart disease subtypes, AAMR was consistently highest for ischemic heart disease in all subgroups (race-sex, age, and region). After 2011, AAMR for heart failure and hypertensive heart disease increased at a faster rate than for other subtypes. The fastest increases in heart failure mortality were in black men (mean annual percentage change 4.9%, 95% confidence interval 4.0% to 5.8%), whereas the fastest increases in hypertensive heart disease occurred in white men (6.3%, 4.9% to 9.4%). The burden of years of potential life lost was greatest from ischemic heart disease, but black-white disparities were driven by heart failure and hypertensive heart disease. Deaths from heart disease in 2018 resulted in approximately 3.8 million potential years of life lost. CONCLUSIONS:Trends in AAMR and years of potential life lost for ischemic heart disease have decelerated since 2011. For almost all other subtypes of heart disease, AAMR and years of potential life lost became stagnant or increased. Heart failure and hypertensive heart disease account for the greatest increases in premature deaths and the largest black-white disparities and have offset declines in ischemic heart disease. Early and targeted primary and secondary prevention and control of risk factors for heart disease, with a focus on groups at high risk, are needed to avoid these suboptimal trends beginning earlier in life.

Project description:Background The prevalence of obesity in the population has increased in parallel with increasing rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). Quantifying contemporary trends in prepregnancy obesity and associations with interrelated APOs (preterm birth, low birth weight, and pregnancy-associated hypertension) together and individually can inform prevention strategies to optimize cardiometabolic health in women and offspring. Methods and Results We performed a serial, cross-sectional study using National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate data including women aged 15 to 44 years with live singleton births between 2013 and 2018, stratified by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian). We quantified the annual prevalence of prepregnancy obesity (body mass index ≥30.0 kg/m2; body mass index ≥27.5 kg/m2 if non-Hispanic Asian). We then estimated adjusted associations using multivariable logistic regression (odds ratios and population attributable fractions) for obesity-related APOs compared with normal body mass index (18.5-24.9 kg/m2; 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 if non-Hispanic Asian). Among 20 139 891 women, the prevalence of prepregnancy obesity increased between 2013 and 2018: non-Hispanic White (21.6%-24.8%), non-Hispanic Black (32.5%-36.2%), Hispanic (26.0%-30.5%), and non-Hispanic Asian (15.3%-18.6%) women (P-trend < 0.001 for all). Adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for APOs associated with obesity increased between 2013 and 2018, and by 2018, ranged from 1.27 (1.25-1.29) in non-Hispanic Black to 1.94 (1.92-1.96) in non-Hispanic White women. Obesity was most strongly associated with pregnancy-associated hypertension and inconsistently associated with preterm birth and low birth weight. Population attributable fractions of obesity-related APOs increased over the study period: non-Hispanic White (10.6%-14.7%), non-Hispanic Black (3.7%-6.9%), Hispanic (7.0%-10.4%), and non-Hispanic Asian (7.4%-9.7%) women (P-trend < 0.01 for all). Conclusions The prevalence of prepregnancy obesity and burden of obesity-related APOs have increased, driven primarily by pregnancy-associated hypertension, and vary across racial/ethnic subgroups.

Dataset Information

Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

Publications

Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

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