Dataset Information

Development of a Biomarker Panel to Distinguish Risk of Progressive Chronic Kidney Disease.

ABSTRACT: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients typically progress to kidney failure, but the rate of progression differs per patient or may not occur at all. Current CKD screening methods are sub-optimal at predicting progressive kidney function decline. This investigation develops a model for predicting progressive CKD based on a panel of biomarkers representing the pathophysiological processes of CKD, kidney function, and common CKD comorbidities. Two patient cohorts are utilised: The CKD Queensland Registry (n = 418), termed the Biomarker Discovery cohort; and the CKD Biobank (n = 62), termed the Predictive Model cohort. Progression status is assigned with a composite outcome of a ?30% decline in eGFR from baseline, initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplantation. Baseline biomarker measurements are compared between progressive and non-progressive patients via logistic regression. In the Biomarker Discovery cohort, 13 biomarkers differed significantly between progressive and non-progressive patients, while 10 differed in the Predictive Model cohort. From this, a predictive model, based on a biomarker panel of serum creatinine, osteopontin, tryptase, urea, and eGFR, was calculated via linear discriminant analysis. This model has an accuracy of 84.3% when predicting future progressive CKD at baseline, greater than eGFR (66.1%), sCr (67.7%), albuminuria (53.2%), or albumin-creatinine ratio (53.2%).

SUBMITTER: Owens E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7764886 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a Biomarker Panel to Distinguish Risk of Progressive Chronic Kidney Disease.

Owens Evan E Tan Ken-Soon KS Ellis Robert R Del Vecchio Sharon S Humphries Tyrone T Lennan Erica E Vesey David D Healy Helen H Hoy Wendy W Gobe Glenda G

Biomedicines 20201214 12

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients typically progress to kidney failure, but the rate of progression differs per patient or may not occur at all. Current CKD screening methods are sub-optimal at predicting progressive kidney function decline. This investigation develops a model for predicting progressive CKD based on a panel of biomarkers representing the pathophysiological processes of CKD, kidney function, and common CKD comorbidities. Two patient cohorts are utilised: The CKD Queensland Re ...[more]

PMID: 33327377

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Project description:Acute and chronic kidney disease continues to confer significant morbidity and mortality in the clinical setting. Despite high prevalence of these conditions, few validated biomarkers exist to predict kidney dysfunction. In this study, we utilized a novel kidney multiplex panel to measure 21 proteins in plasma and urine to characterize the spectrum of biomarker profiles in kidney disease. Blood and urine samples were obtained from age-/sex-matched healthy control subjects (HC), critically-ill COVID-19 patients with acute kidney injury (AKI), and patients with chronic or end-stage kidney disease (CKD/ESKD). Biomarkers were measured with a kidney multiplex panel, and results analyzed with conventional statistics and machine learning. Correlations were examined between biomarkers and patient clinical and laboratory variables. Median AKI subject age was 65.5 (IQR 58.5-73.0) and median CKD/ESKD age was 65.0 (IQR 50.0-71.5). Of the CKD/ESKD patients, 76.1% were on hemodialysis, 14.3% of patients had kidney transplant, and 9.5% had CKD without kidney replacement therapy. In plasma, 19 proteins were significantly different in titer between the HC versus AKI versus CKD/ESKD groups, while NAG and RBP4 were unchanged. TIMP-1 (PPV 1.0, NPV 1.0), best distinguished AKI from HC, and TFF3 (PPV 0.99, NPV 0.89) best distinguished CKD/ESKD from HC. In urine, 18 proteins were significantly different between groups except Calbindin, Osteopontin and TIMP-1. Osteoactivin (PPV 0.95, NPV 0.95) best distinguished AKI from HC, and β2-microglobulin (PPV 0.96, NPV 0.78) best distinguished CKD/ESKD from HC. A variety of correlations were noted between patient variables and either plasma or urine biomarkers. Using a novel kidney multiplex biomarker panel, together with conventional statistics and machine learning, we identified unique biomarker profiles in the plasma and urine of patients with AKI and CKD/ESKD. We demonstrated correlations between biomarker profiles and patient clinical variables. Our exploratory study provides biomarker data for future hypothesis driven research on kidney disease.

Project description:Importance:Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health conditions. Objective:To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Design, Setting, and Participants:Individual-level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5?222?711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A 2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Because clinical variables were often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately for participants with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external cohorts (n?=?2?253?540). Exposures:Demographic and clinical factors. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Results:Among 4?441?084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% women), 660?856 incident cases (14.9%) of reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Of 781?627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% women), 313?646 incident cases (40%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13 study populations (69%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Conclusions and Relevance:Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed from more than 5 million individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and variable calibration in diverse populations. Further study is needed to determine whether use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care and patient outcomes.

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Development of a Biomarker Panel to Distinguish Risk of Progressive Chronic Kidney Disease.

Publications

Development of a Biomarker Panel to Distinguish Risk of Progressive Chronic Kidney Disease.

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