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Determining cancer risk: the evolutionary multistage model or total stem cell divisions?

ABSTRACT: A recent hypothesis proposed that the total number of stem cell divisions in a tissue (TSCD model) determine its intrinsic cancer risk; however, a different model-the multistage model-has long been used to understand how cancer originates. Identifying the correct model has important implications for interpreting the frequency of cancers. Using worldwide cancer incidence data, we applied three tests to the TSCD model and an evolutionary multistage model of carcinogenesis (EMMC), a model in which cancer suppression is recognized as an evolving trait, with natural selection acting to suppress cancers causing a significant mean loss of Darwinian fitness. Each test supported the EMMC but contradicted the TSCD model. This outcome undermines results based on the TSCD model quantifying the relative importance of 'bad luck' (the random accumulation of somatic mutations) versus environmental and genetic factors in determining cancer incidence. Our testing supported the EMMC prediction that cancers of large rapidly dividing tissues predominate late in life. Another important prediction is that an indicator of recent oncogenic environmental change is an unusually high mean fitness loss due to cancer, rather than a high lifetime incidence. The evolutionary model also predicts that large and/or long-lived animals have evolved mechanisms of cancer suppression that may be of value in preventing or controlling human cancers.

SUBMITTER: Nunney L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7779499 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:There is compelling biological data to suggest that cancer arises from a series of mutations in single target cells, resulting in defects in cell renewal and differentiation processes which lead to malignancy. Because much mutagenic damage is expressed following cell division, more-rapidly renewing tissues could be at higher risk because of the larger number of cell replications. Cairns suggested that renewing tissues may reduce cancer risk by partitioning the dividing cell populations into lineages comprising infrequently-dividing long-lived stem cells and frequently-dividing short-lived daughter transit cells. We develop generalizations of three recent cancer-induction models that account for the joint maintenance and renewal of stem and transit cells, also competing processes of partially transformed cell proliferation and differentiation/apoptosis. We are particularly interested in using these models to separately assess the probabilities of mutation and development of cancer associated with "spontaneous" processes and with those linked to a specific environmental mutagen, specifically ionizing radiation or cigarette smoking. All three models demonstrate substantial variation in cancer risks, by at least 20 orders of magnitude, depending on the assumed number of critical mutations required for cancer, and the stem-cell and transition-cell mutation rates. However, in most cases the conditional probabilities of cancer being mutagen-induced range between 7-96%. The relative risks associated with mutagen exposure compared to background rates are also stable, ranging from 1.0-16.0. Very few cancers, generally <0.5%, arise from mutations occurring solely in stem cells rather than in a combination of stem and transit cells. However, for cancers with 2 or 3 critical mutations, a substantial proportion of cancers, in some cases 100%, have at least one mutation derived from a mutated stem cell. Little difference is made to relative risks if competing processes of proliferation and differentiation in the partially transformed stem and transit cell population are allowed for, nor is any difference made if one assumes that transit cells require an extra mutation to confer malignancy from the number required by stem cells. The probability of a cancer being mutagen-induced correlates across cancer sites with the estimated cumulative number of stem cell divisions in the associated tissue (p<0.05), although in some cases there is sensitivity of findings to removal of high-leverage outliers and in some cases only modest variation in probability, but these issues do not affect the validity of the findings. There are no significant correlations (p>0.3) between lifetime cancer-site specific radiation risk and the probability of that cancer being mutagen-induced. These results do not depend on the assumed critical number of mutations leading to cancer, or on the assumed mutagen-associated mutation rate, within the generally-accepted ranges tested. However, there are borderline significant negative correlations (p = 0.08) between the smoking-associated mortality rate difference (current vs former smokers) and the probability of cancer being mutagen-induced. This is only the case where values of the critical number of mutations leading to cancer, k, is 3 or 4 and not for smaller values (1 or 2), but does not strongly depend on the assumed mutagen-associated mutation rate.

Project description:Successful maintenance of cellular lineages critically depends on the fate decision dynamics of stem cells (SCs) upon division. There are three possible strategies with respect to SC fate decision symmetry: (a) asymmetric mode, when each and every SC division produces one SC and one non-SC progeny; (b) symmetric mode, when 50% of all divisions produce two SCs and another 50%-two non-SC progeny; (c) mixed mode, when both the asymmetric and two types of symmetric SC divisions co-exist and are partitioned so that long-term net balance of the lineage output stays constant. Theoretically, either of these strategies can achieve lineage homeostasis. However, it remains unclear which strategy(s) are more advantageous and under what specific circumstances, and what minimal control mechanisms are required to operate them. Here we used stochastic modeling to analyze and quantify the ability of different types of divisions to maintain long-term lineage homeostasis, in the context of different control networks. Using the example of a two-component lineage, consisting of SCs and one type of non-SC progeny, we show that its tight homeostatic control is not necessarily associated with purely asymmetric divisions. Through stochastic analysis and simulations we show that asymmetric divisions can either stabilize or destabilize the lineage system, depending on the underlying control network. We further apply our computational model to biological observations in the context of a two-component lineage of mouse epidermis, where autonomous lineage control has been proposed and notable regional differences, in terms of symmetric division ratio, have been noted-higher in thickened epidermis of the paw skin as compared to ear and tail skin. By using our model we propose a possible explanation for the regional differences in epidermal lineage control strategies. We demonstrate how symmetric divisions can work to stabilize paw epidermis lineage, which experiences high level of micro-injuries and a lack of hair follicles as a back-up source of SCs.

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Determining cancer risk: the evolutionary multistage model or total stem cell divisions?

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