Dataset Information

Epidemiological Analysis of the 2019 Dengue Epidemic in Bhutan.

ABSTRACT: Bhutan experienced its largest and first nation-wide dengue epidemic in 2019. The cases in 2019 were greater than the total number of cases in all the previous years. This study aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns and effective reproduction number of this explosive epidemic. Weekly notified dengue cases were extracted from the National Early Warning, Alert, Response and Surveillance (NEWARS) database to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of the epidemic. The time-varying, temperature-adjusted cohort effective reproduction number was estimated over the course of the epidemic. The dengue epidemic occurred between 29 April and 8 December 2019 over 32 weeks, and included 5935 cases. During the epidemic, dengue expanded from six to 44 subdistricts. The effective reproduction number was <3 for most of the epidemic period, except for a ?1 month period of explosive growth, coinciding with the monsoon season and school vacations, when the effective reproduction number peaked >30 and after which the effective reproduction number declined steadily. Interventions were only initiated 6 weeks after the end of the period of explosive growth. This finding highlights the need to reinforce the national preparedness plan for outbreak response, and to enable the early detection of cases and timely response.

SUBMITTER: Tsheten T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7796457 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiological Analysis of the 2019 Dengue Epidemic in Bhutan.

Tsheten Tsheten T Mclure Angus A Clements Archie C A ACA Gray Darren J DJ Wangdi Tenzin T Wangchuk Sonam S Wangdi Kinley K

International journal of environmental research and public health 20210105 1

Bhutan experienced its largest and first nation-wide dengue epidemic in 2019. The cases in 2019 were greater than the total number of cases in all the previous years. This study aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns and effective reproduction number of this explosive epidemic. Weekly notified dengue cases were extracted from the National Early Warning, Alert, Response and Surveillance (NEWARS) database to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of the epidemic. The time-varying, t ...[more]

PMID: 33466497

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Project description:BackgroundAfter being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales.Methods/principal findingsLongitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission.Conclusions/significanceOur findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. More specifically, scrapyards and sites associated with tires (strongly associated with incidence during periods of minimal transmission), require sustained entomological surveillance, particularly during interepidemic intervals and in the urban periphery. Intersectoral collaborations that address urban violence are critical for facilitating the regular activities of vector control agents.

Project description:BackgroundDuring 2019, an epidemic of equine influenza (EI) occurred in Europe.ObjectivesTo describe the epidemiology of the 2019 EI epidemic within Great Britain (GB).Study designRetrospective descriptive study of laboratory confirmed EI cases.MethodsEpidemiological data were obtained from veterinary surgeons referring samples for EI virus testing. Where available, data on confirmed cases and their wider resident population on EI-infected premises were collated and described. On a national level, spatial and temporal representations, consisting of choropleth maps and epidemic curves, described the spread of EI. EI-infected premises-level factors associated with the first of two epidemic phases were investigated using ordinary logistic regression analysis.ResultsThere were 412 confirmed cases and 234 EI-infected premises, with the first of two epidemic phases occurring between January and April, followed by a second phase through to August. The median age of confirmed cases was 5 years and Sports horses (24%) and Cobs (16%) made up the highest proportions by general horse type and breed. Among confirmed cases 72% were unvaccinated and 18% were vaccinated against EI. New horses arriving within 2 weeks of a confirmed case were reported by 42% of EI-infected premises. Investigation of EI-infected premises biosecurity measures indicated that 23% quarantined new arrivals, 37% had isolation facilities and 57% of resident horses were vaccinated. EI-infected premises were more likely in the first than second epidemic phase to be classified as professional, have a vaccinated confirmed case and EI confirmed in a newly arrived animal.Main limitationsData were collected at a single time point for each EI-infected premises with no follow ups performed.ConclusionsDuring 2019, EI-infected premises generally had low levels of population vaccine coverage and implemented limited preventive biosecurity measures, particularly linked to horse movements. Without substantial improvements in infectious disease prevention and control, the GB equine population remains at risk of future EI epidemics.

Dataset Information

Epidemiological Analysis of the 2019 Dengue Epidemic in Bhutan.

Publications

Epidemiological Analysis of the 2019 Dengue Epidemic in Bhutan.

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