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Ethnic-minority groups in England and Wales-factors associated with the size and timing of elevated COVID-19 mortality: a retrospective cohort study linking census and death records.


ABSTRACT:

Background

We estimated population-level associations between ethnicity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality using a newly linked census-based data set and investigated how ethnicity-specific mortality risk evolved during the pandemic.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents to the 2011 Census of England and Wales in private households, linked to death registrations and adjusted for emigration (n?=?47 872 412). The outcome of interest was death involving COVID-19 between 2 March 2020 and 15 May 2020. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for ethnic-minority groups compared with the White population, controlling for individual, household and area characteristics. HRs were estimated on the full outcome period and separately for pre- and post-lockdown periods.

Results

In age-adjusted models, people from all ethnic-minority groups were at elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality; the HRs for Black males and females were 3.13 (95% confidence interval: 2.93 to 3.34) and 2.40 (2.20 to 2.61), respectively. However, in fully adjusted models for females, the HRs were close to unity for all ethnic groups except Black [1.29 (1.18 to 1.42)]. For males, the mortality risk remained elevated for the Black [1.76 (1.63 to 1.90)], Bangladeshi/Pakistani [1.35 (1.21 to 1.49)] and Indian [1.30 (1.19 to 1.43)] groups. The HRs decreased after lockdown for all ethnic groups, particularly Black and Bangladeshi/Pakistani females.

Conclusion

Differences in COVID-19 mortality between ethnic groups were largely attenuated by geographical and socio-demographic factors, though some residual differences remained. Lockdown was associated with reductions in excess mortality risk in ethnic-minority populations, which has implications for a second wave of infection.

SUBMITTER: Ayoubkhani D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7799112 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Ethnic-minority groups in England and Wales-factors associated with the size and timing of elevated COVID-19 mortality: a retrospective cohort study linking census and death records.

Ayoubkhani Daniel D   Nafilyan Vahé V   White Chris C   Goldblatt Peter P   Gaughan Charlotte C   Blackwell Louisa L   Rogers Nicky N   Banerjee Amitava A   Khunti Kamlesh K   Glickman Myer M   Humberstone Ben B   Diamond Ian I  

International journal of epidemiology 20210101 6


<h4>Background</h4>We estimated population-level associations between ethnicity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality using a newly linked census-based data set and investigated how ethnicity-specific mortality risk evolved during the pandemic.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents to the 2011 Census of England and Wales in private households, linked to death registrations and adjusted for emigration (n = 47 872 412). The outcome of interest was deat  ...[more]

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