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Correlation of population mortality of COVID-19 and testing coverage: a comparison among 36 OECD countries.

ABSTRACT: Although testing is widely regarded as critical to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, what measure and level of testing best reflects successful infection control remains unresolved. Our aim was to compare the sensitivity of two testing metrics - population testing number and testing coverage - to population mortality outcomes and identify a benchmark for testing adequacy. We aggregated publicly available data through 12 April on testing and outcomes related to COVID-19 across 36 OECD (Organization for Economic Development) countries and Taiwan. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the aforementioned metrics and following outcome measures: deaths per 1 million people, case fatality rate and case proportion of critical illness. Fractional polynomials were used to generate scatter plots to model the relationship between the testing metrics and outcomes. We found that testing coverage, but not population testing number, was highly correlated with population mortality (rs = -0.79, P = 5.975 × 10-9vs. rs = -0.3, P = 0.05) and case fatality rate (rs = -0.67, P = 9.067 × 10-6vs. rs = -0.21, P = 0.20). A testing coverage threshold of 15-45 signified adequate testing: below 15, testing coverage was associated with exponentially increasing population mortality; above 45, increased testing did not yield significant incremental mortality benefit. Taken together, testing coverage was better than population testing number in explaining country performance and can serve as an early and sensitive indicator of testing adequacy and disease burden.

SUBMITTER: Wei C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7804083 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Correlation of population mortality of COVID-19 and testing coverage: a comparison among 36 OECD countries.

Wei C C Lee C C CC Hsu T C TC Hsu W T WT Chan C C CC Chen S C SC Chen C J CJ

Epidemiology and infection 20201228

Although testing is widely regarded as critical to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, what measure and level of testing best reflects successful infection control remains unresolved. Our aim was to compare the sensitivity of two testing metrics - population testing number and testing coverage - to population mortality outcomes and identify a benchmark for testing adequacy. We aggregated publicly available data through 12 April on testing and outcomes related to COVID-19 across 36 OECD (Organization ...[more]

PMID: 33413705

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Project description:BackgroundExposure to ambient air pollution is related to 4.2 million premature deaths per year worldwide and is associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes, such as respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity. Furthermore, exposure to air pollution can increase human sensitivity to respiratory pathogens via damage to the respiratory tract or via airborne transmission on the surface of particulate matter, and might be an additional factor influencing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates. The aim of this study was to examine the association between populations' exposure to air pollution and the morbidity and mortality rates from COVID-19.MethodsWe examined the association between population-weighted long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NOx, and the morbidity and mortality over time following the detection of the first COVID-19 positive case in 36 OECD countries. Pearson and Spearman correlations between daily COVID-19 morbidity and mortality (Jan-Jun 2020) on the 10th, 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th days since first confirmed case in the country, and demographic, health, economic, and environmental data were calculated. Multivariate linear regression were used to examine the associations between demographic, health, economic and air pollution features and the rate of confirmed cases and deaths on the 60th and 80th days following the first confirmed case.ResultsPM2.5 concentrations in 2015-2017 were positively correlated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality on the 10th, 20th, 40th and 60th days since the first confirmed case in all countries. NOx concentrations in 2015-2017 and country's density (population/Km2) were positively correlated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality on the 60th day. All multivariate linear regressions consisting PM2.5 concentrations models were statistically significant. Our models also emphasize the importance of the relative number of hospital beds in decreasing the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19.ConclusionsThe adverse health outcomes stemming from long-term exposure to various air pollutants has long been known to the scientific community. According to our results and previously published studies, it appears that long-term exposure to air pollutants concentrations exceeding WHO guidelines, such as PM2.5 and NOx, might exacerbate morbidity and mortality rates from COVID-19. These results should raise a red flag globally among decision makers about the urgent need to reduce air pollution and its harmful effects.

Dataset Information

Correlation of population mortality of COVID-19 and testing coverage: a comparison among 36 OECD countries.

Publications

Correlation of population mortality of COVID-19 and testing coverage: a comparison among 36 OECD countries.

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