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Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States.

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and the individual United States (US), while accounting for other important meteorological and non-meteorological co-variates. The exposure of interest was average temperature and other weather conditions, measured at 25 days prior and 25 days after the first reported COVID-19 death was collected in the OECD countries and US states. The outcome of interest was cumulative COVID-19 mortality, assessed for each region at 25, 30, 35, and 40 days after the first reported death. Analyses were performed with negative binomial regression and adjusted for other weather conditions, particulate matter, sociodemographic factors, smoking, obesity, ICU beds, and social distancing. A 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was associated with 6% lower COVID-19 mortality at 30 days following the first reported death (multivariate-adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99, p = 0.016). The results were robust for COVID-19 mortality at 25, 35 and 40 days after the first death, as well as other sensitivity analyses. The results provide consistent evidence across various models of an inverse association between higher average temperatures and subsequent COVID-19 mortality rates after accounting for other meteorological variables and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection or death. This suggests potentially decreased viral transmission in warmer regions and during the summer season.

SUBMITTER: Christophi CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8062561 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundExposure to ambient air pollution is related to 4.2 million premature deaths per year worldwide and is associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes, such as respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity. Furthermore, exposure to air pollution can increase human sensitivity to respiratory pathogens via damage to the respiratory tract or via airborne transmission on the surface of particulate matter, and might be an additional factor influencing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates. The aim of this study was to examine the association between populations' exposure to air pollution and the morbidity and mortality rates from COVID-19.MethodsWe examined the association between population-weighted long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NOx, and the morbidity and mortality over time following the detection of the first COVID-19 positive case in 36 OECD countries. Pearson and Spearman correlations between daily COVID-19 morbidity and mortality (Jan-Jun 2020) on the 10th, 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th days since first confirmed case in the country, and demographic, health, economic, and environmental data were calculated. Multivariate linear regression were used to examine the associations between demographic, health, economic and air pollution features and the rate of confirmed cases and deaths on the 60th and 80th days following the first confirmed case.ResultsPM2.5 concentrations in 2015-2017 were positively correlated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality on the 10th, 20th, 40th and 60th days since the first confirmed case in all countries. NOx concentrations in 2015-2017 and country's density (population/Km2) were positively correlated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality on the 60th day. All multivariate linear regressions consisting PM2.5 concentrations models were statistically significant. Our models also emphasize the importance of the relative number of hospital beds in decreasing the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19.ConclusionsThe adverse health outcomes stemming from long-term exposure to various air pollutants has long been known to the scientific community. According to our results and previously published studies, it appears that long-term exposure to air pollutants concentrations exceeding WHO guidelines, such as PM2.5 and NOx, might exacerbate morbidity and mortality rates from COVID-19. These results should raise a red flag globally among decision makers about the urgent need to reduce air pollution and its harmful effects.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic is tremendously impacted by socioeconomic and health determinants worldwide. This study aimed to determine factors associated with COVID-19 fatality among member states and partner countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).MethodsAn ecological study was conducted using COVID-19 data of 48 countries for the period between 31 December 2019-31 December 2021. The outcome variables were COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) and years of life lost to COVID-19 (YLLs). Countries' sociodemographics and COVID-19-related data were extracted from OECD website, Our World in Data, John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and WHO.ResultsIn the first year of the pandemic (December 2019-January 2021), highest CFR was observed in Mexico, 8.51%, followed by China, 5.17% and Bulgaria, 4.12%), and highest YLLs was observed in Mexico, 2,055 per 100,000. At regional level, highest CFR was observed in North & central America, 4.25 (3.71) %, followed by South America (2.5 (0.1) %); whereas highest YLLs was observed in South America region 1457.5 (274.8) per 100,000, followed by North & central America, 1207.3 (908.1) per 100,000. As of 31 December 2021, Mexico (7.52%) and Bulgaria (4.78%) had highest CFR; on the other hand, highest YLLs was observed in England, 26.5 per 1,000, followed by the United States, 25.9 per 1,000. At regional level, highest CFR (3.37(3.19) %) and YLLs (16.7 (13) per 1,000) were both observed in North & central America. Globally, the analysis of the 2-year cumulative data showed inverse correlation between CFR and nurse per 10,000 (R = -0.48; p < 0.05) and GDP per capita (R = -0.54; p < 0.001), whereas positive correlation was observed between YLLs and elderly population rate (R = 0.66; p < 0.05) and overweight/obese population rates (R = 0.55; p < 0.05).ConclusionThis study provides insights on COVID-19 burden among OECD states and partner countries. GDP per capita, overweight/obesity and the rate of elderly population emerged as major social and health determinants of COVID-19 related burden and fatality. Findings suggest that a robust economy and interventions designed to promote healthy longevity and prevent weight gain in at-risk individuals might reduce COVID-19 burden and fatality among OECD states and partner countries.

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Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States.

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