Contact tracing - Old models and new challenges.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Muller J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7806945 | biostudies-literature | 2021
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Contact tracing - Old models and new challenges.
Müller Johannes J Kretzschmar Mirjam M
Infectious Disease Modelling 20201230
Contact tracing is an effective method to control emerging infectious diseases. Since the 1980's, modellers are developing a consistent theory for contact tracing, with the aim to find effective and efficient implementations, and to assess the effects of contact tracing on the spread of an infectious disease. Despite the progress made in the area, there remain important open questions. In addition, technological developments, especially in the field of molecular biology (genetic sequencing of pa ...[more]
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Project description:Prostate cancer (PCa) is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers among men but has limited prognostic biomarkers available for follow up. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs that regulate expression of their target genes. Accumulating experimental evidence reports differential miRNA expression in PCa, and that miRNAs are actively involved in the pathogenesis and progression of PCa. miRNA and androgen receptor signaling cross-talk is an established factor in PCa pathogenesis. Differential miRNA expression was found between patients with high versus low Gleason scores, and was also observed in patients with biochemical failure, hormone-resistant cancer and in metastasis. Metastasis requires epithelial-mesenchymal transition which shares many cancer stem cell biological characteristics and both are associated with miRNA dysregulation. In the era of personalized medicine, there is a broad spectrum of potential clinical applications of miRNAs. These applications can significantly improve PCa management including their use as diagnostic and/or prognostic markers, or as predictive markers for treatment efficiency. Preliminary evidence demonstrates that miRNAs can also be used for risk stratification. Circulatory miRNAs can serve as non-invasive biomarkers in urine and/or serum of PCa patients. More recently, analysis of miRNAs and circulating tumor cells are gaining significant attention. Moreover, miRNAs represent an attractive new class of therapeutic targets for PCa. Here, we summarize the current knowledge and the future prospects of miRNAs in PCa, their advantages, and potential challenges as tissue and circulating biomarkers. Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among men in western populations. The American Cancer Society estimated 239, 590 new cases and 29, 720 expected deaths in the USA in 2013. One in every six men are at risk of developing PCa during their lifetime (1). Currently, the standard biomarker for PCa diagnosis is prostate-specific antigen (PSA), which has its limitations, leading to the risks of PCa over diagnosis and harmful overtreatment. The prognostic value of PSA is also questionable (2). Stepping into the new epoch of personalized medicine, molecular markers are urgently needed to improve the different aspects of PCa management (3). miRNAs represent an attractive class of emerging biomarkers that can help in this regard (4;5).
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Project description:Quantification of circadian gene expression in WT Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 cells
2013-04-02 | GSE45667 | GEO
Project description:ImportanceContact tracing is the process of identifying people who have recently been in contact with someone diagnosed with an infectious disease. During an outbreak, data collected from contact tracing can inform interventions to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. Understanding factors associated with completion rates of contact tracing surveys can help design improved interview protocols for ongoing and future programs.ObjectiveTo identify factors associated with completion rates of COVID-19 contact tracing surveys in New York City (NYC) and evaluate the utility of a predictive model to improve completion rates, we analyze laboratory-confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and their self-reported contacts in NYC from October 1st 2020 to May 10th 2021.MethodsWe analyzed 742,807 case investigation calls made during the study period. Using a log-binomial regression model, we examined the impact of age, time of day of phone call, and zip code-level demographic and socioeconomic factors on interview completion rates. We further developed a random forest model to predict the best phone call time and performed a counterfactual analysis to evaluate the change of completion rates if the predicative model were used.ResultsThe percentage of contact tracing surveys that were completed was 79.4%, with substantial variations across ZIP code areas. Using a log-binomial regression model, we found that the age of index case (an individual who has tested positive through PCR or antigen testing and is thus subjected to a case investigation) had a significant effect on the completion of case investigation - compared with young adults (the reference group,24 years old < age < = 65 years old), the completion rate for seniors (age > 65 years old) were lower by 12.1% (95%CI: 11.1% - 13.3%), and the completion rate for youth group (age < = 24 years old) were lower by 1.6% (95%CI: 0.6% -2.6%). In addition, phone calls made from 6 to 9 pm had a 4.1% (95% CI: 1.8% - 6.3%) higher completion rate compared with the reference group of phone calls attempted from 12 and 3 pm. We further used a random forest algorithm to assess its potential utility for selecting the time of day of phone call. In counterfactual simulations, the overall completion rate in NYC was marginally improved by 1.2%; however, certain ZIP code areas had improvements up to 7.8%.ConclusionThese findings suggest that age and time of day of phone call were associated with completion rates of case investigations. It is possible to develop predictive models to estimate better phone call time for improving completion rates in certain communities.
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