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Effects of social distancing on the spreading of COVID-19 inferred from mobile phone data.

ABSTRACT: A better understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic responds to social distancing efforts is required for the control of future outbreaks and to calibrate partial lock-downs. We present quantitative relationships between key parameters characterizing the COVID-19 epidemiology and social distancing efforts of nine selected European countries. Epidemiological parameters were extracted from the number of daily deaths data, while mitigation efforts are estimated from mobile phone tracking data. The decrease of the basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) as well as the duration of the initial exponential expansion phase of the epidemic strongly correlates with the magnitude of mobility reduction. Utilizing these relationships we decipher the relative impact of the timing and the extent of social distancing on the total death burden of the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Khataee H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7813880 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of social distancing on the spreading of COVID-19 inferred from mobile phone data.

Khataee Hamid H Scheuring Istvan I Czirok Andras A Neufeld Zoltan Z

Scientific reports 20210118 1

A better understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic responds to social distancing efforts is required for the control of future outbreaks and to calibrate partial lock-downs. We present quantitative relationships between key parameters characterizing the COVID-19 epidemiology and social distancing efforts of nine selected European countries. Epidemiological parameters were extracted from the number of daily deaths data, while mitigation efforts are estimated from mobile phone tracking data. The ...[more]

PMID: 33462369

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Project description:BackgroundThe availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamics of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attention paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility, and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors have not been fully investigated.ObjectiveThis study aims to assist in designing and implementing public health policies by exploring how social distancing behaviors varied among various demographic groups over time.MethodsWe combined several data sources, including mobile tracking mobility data and geographical statistics, to estimate the visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Next, we used time series analysis methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shifted over time across demographic groups.ResultsOur findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. On the one hand, although entertainment venues' population comprises mainly individuals aged 20-40 years, a more significant proportion of the youth has adopted social distancing behaviors and complied with policy implementations compared to older age groups. From this perspective, the increasing contribution to infections by the youth should be more likely to be attributed to their number rather than their violation of social distancing behaviors. On the other hand, although risk perception and self-restriction recommendations can induce social distancing behaviors, their impact and effectiveness appear to be largely weakened during Japan's second state of emergency.ConclusionsThis study provides a timely reference for policymakers about the current situation on how different demographic groups adopt social distancing behaviors over time. On the one hand, the age-dependent disparity requires more nuanced and targeted mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering that the effectiveness of policy implementations requesting social distancing behaviors appears to decline over time, in extreme cases, the government should consider imposing stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19.

Project description:This article describes patterns of compliance with social distancing measures among the Spanish population during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It identifies several factors associated with higher or lower compliance with recommended measures of social distancing. This research is part of a 67-country study, titled the International COVID-19 study on Social & Moral Psychology, in which we use a Spanish dataset. Participants were residents in Spain aged 18 or above. The sample comprises 1,090 respondents, weighted to be representative of the Spanish population. Frequencies, correlations, bivariate analysis, and six models based on hierarchical multiple regressions were applied. The main finding is that most Spaniards are compliant with established guidelines of social distance during the pandemic (State of Alarm, before May 2020). Variables associated more with lower levels of compliance with these standards were explored. Six hierarchical multiple regression models found that compliance with social distance measures has a multifactorial explanation (R 2 between 20.4 and 49.1%). Sociodemographic factors, personal hygiene patterns, and the interaction between personal hygiene patterns and the support for political measures related to the coronavirus brought significant effects on the regression models. Less compliance was also associated with beliefs in some specific conspiracy theories with regard to COVID-19 or general conspiracy mentality (Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire, CMQ), consumption patterns of traditional mass media (television, paper newspapers, magazines, and radio) and modern means to get informed (online digital newspapers, blogs, and social networks), political ideology, vote, trust in institutions, and political identification. Among the future lines of action in preventing the possible outbreak of the virus, we suggest measures to reinforce trust in official information, mainly linked to reducing the influence of disinformation and conspiracy theories parallel to the pandemic.

Dataset Information

Effects of social distancing on the spreading of COVID-19 inferred from mobile phone data.

Publications

Effects of social distancing on the spreading of COVID-19 inferred from mobile phone data.

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