Dataset Information

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth.

Materials and methods

This was a retrospective birth cohort study to evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth. Participants were mothers who gave birth to their first two children in Western Australia, 1980-2015 (N = 255,151 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative risks (RR) and absolute risks (AR) of subsequent preterm birth defined as final gestational age before 28, 32, 34 and <37 weeks. Risks were unadjusted to preserve risk factor profiles at each week of gestation.

Results

The relative risks of second birth before 28, 32, and 34 weeks' gestation were all approximately twenty times higher for mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks compared to those whose first birth was at 40 weeks' gestation. The absolute risks of second birth before 28, 32, and 34 weeks' gestation for these mothers had upper confidence limits that were all less than 16.74%. The absolute risk of second birth before 37 weeks was highest at 32.11% (95% CI: 30.27, 34.02) for mothers whose first birth was 22 to 30 weeks' gestation. For all gestational ages of the first child, the lowest quartile and median gestational age of the second birth were at least 36 weeks and at least 38 weeks, respectively. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 35%.

Conclusion

Relative risks of early subsequent birth increased markedly with decreasing gestational age of the first birth. However, absolute risks of clinically significant preterm birth (<28 weeks, <32 weeks, <34 weeks), sensitivity and positive predictive values remained low. Early gestational age is a strong risk factor but a poor predictor of subsequent preterm birth.

SUBMITTER: Pereira E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7822520 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

Pereira Elizabeth E Tessema Gizachew G Gissler Mika M Regan Annette K AK Pereira Gavin G

PloS one 20210122 1

<h4>Background</h4>To evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>This was a retrospective birth cohort study to evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth. Participants were mothers who gave birth to their first two children in Western Australia, 1980-2015 (N = 255,151 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative risks (RR) and absolute risks (AR) of subsequent preterm b ...[more]

PMID: 33481959

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Project description:ImportanceAdverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), and large for gestational age (LGA) are associated with increased risks of hypertension, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure, but knowledge regarding their associations with atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited and inconsistent.ObjectiveTo investigate whether preterm birth, SGA, or LGA are associated with increased risks of AF later in life.Design, setting, and participantsThis multinational cohort study included Danish, Swedish, and Finnish national health registries. Live singleton births in Denmark from 1978 through 2016, in Sweden from 1973 through 2014, and in Finland from 1987 through 2014, who were followed up until December 31, 2016, in Denmark, December 31, 2021, in Sweden, and December 31, 2014, in Finland were included. Data analyses were performed between January 2021 and August 2022.ExposuresPreterm birth (less than 37 gestational weeks), SGA (less than 10th percentile birth weight for gestational age), and LGA (more than 90th percentile birth weight for gestational age) identified from medical birth registers.Main outcomes and measuresDiagnosis of AF obtained from nationwide inpatient and outpatient registers. The study team ran multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for AF according to preterm birth, SGA, and LGA. Sibling analyses were conducted to control for unmeasured familial factors.ResultsThe cohort included 8 012 433 study participants (maximum age, 49 years; median age, 21 years; male, 51.3%). In 174.4 million person-years of follow-up, 11 464 participants had a diagnosis of AF (0.14%; median age, 29.3 years). Preterm birth and LGA were associated with increased AF risk in both the full population cohort and in the sibling analyses; the multivariate HRs from the cohort analyses were 1.30 (95% CI, 1.18-1.42) and 1.55 (95% CI, 1.46-1.63), respectively. Preterm birth was more strongly associated with AF in childhood than in adulthood. Children born SGA had an increased risk of AF in the first 18 years of life but not afterwards.Conclusions and relevancePreterm births and LGA births were associated with increased risks of AF up to middle age independently of familial confounding factors. Individuals born SGA had an increased AF risk only during childhood.

Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth is the leading cause of death among children <5 years of age. Accurate determination of prematurity is necessary to provide appropriate neonatal care and guide preventive measures. To estimate the most accurate method to identify infants at risk for adverse outcomes, we assessed the validity of two widely available methods-last menstrual period (LMP) and the New Ballard (NB) neonatal assessment-against ultrasound in determining gestational age and preterm birth in highland Guatemala.MethodsPregnant women (n = 188) were recruited with a gestational age <20 weeks and followed until delivery. Ultrasound was performed by trained physicians and LMP was collected during recruitment. NB was performed on infants within 96 hours of birth by trained study nurses. LMP and NB accuracy at determining gestational age and identifying prematurity was assessed by comparing them to ultrasound.ResultsBy ultrasound, infant mean gestational age at birth was 38.3 weeks (SD = 1.6) with 16% born at less than 37 gestation. LMP was more accurate than NB (mean difference of +0.13 weeks for LMP and +0.61 weeks for NB). However, LMP and NB estimates had low agreement with ultrasound-determined gestational age (Lin's concordance<0.48 for both methods) and preterm birth (?<0.29 for both methods). By LMP, 18% were judged premature compared with 6% by NB. LMP underestimated gestational age among women presenting later to prenatal care (0.18 weeks for each additional week). Gestational age for preterm infants was overestimated by nearly one week using LMP and nearly two weeks using NB. New Ballard neuromuscular measurements were more predictive of preterm birth than those measuring physical criteria.ConclusionIn an indigenous population in highland Guatemala, LMP overestimated prematurity by 2% and NB underestimated prematurity by 10% compared with ultrasound estimates. New, simple and accurate methods are needed to identify preterm birth in resource-limited settings worldwide.

Project description:BackgroundDespite 15-17 millions of annual births in China, there is a paucity of information on prevalence and outcome of preterm birth. We characterized the outcome of preterm births and hospitalized preterm infants by gestational age (GA) in Huai'an in 2015, an emerging prefectural region of China.MethodsOf 59,245 regional total births, clinical data on 2651 preterm births and 1941 hospitalized preterm neonates were extracted from Huai'an Women and Children's Hospital (HWCH) and non-HWCH hospitals in 2018-2020. Preterm prevalence, morbidity and mortality rates were characterized and compared by hospital categories and GA spectra. Death risks of preterm births and hospitalized preterm infants in the whole region were analyzed with multivariable Poisson regression.ResultsThe prevalence of extreme, very, moderate, late and total preterm of the regional total births were 0.14, 0.53, 0.72, 3.08 and 4.47%, with GA-specific neonatal mortality rates being 44.4, 15.8, 3.7, 1.5 and 4.3%, respectively. There were 1025 (52.8% of whole region) preterm admissions in HWCH, with significantly lower in-hospital death rate of inborn (33 of 802, 4.1%) than out-born (23 of 223, 10.3%) infants. Compared to non-HWCH, three-fold more neonates in HWCH were under critical care with higher death rate, including most extremely preterm infants. Significantly all-death risks were found for the total preterm births in birth weight < 1000 g, GA < 32 weeks, amniotic fluid contamination, Apgar-5 min < 7, and birth defects. For the hospitalized preterm infants, significantly in-hospital death risks were found in out-born of HWCH, GA < 32 weeks, birth weight < 1000 g, Apgar-5 min < 7, birth defects, respiratory distress syndrome, necrotizing enterocolitis and ventilation, whereas born in HWCH, antenatal glucocorticoids, cesarean delivery and surfactant use decreased the death risks.ConclusionsThe integrated data revealed the prevalence, GA-specific morbidity and mortality rate of total preterm births and their hospitalization, demonstrating the efficiency of leading referral center and whole regional perinatal-neonatal network in China. The concept and protocol should be validated in further studies for prevention of preterm birth.

Project description:ImportanceThe long-term cardiometabolic consequences of late preterm birth (34-36 weeks' gestation) are not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess whether late preterm birth and size for gestational age are associated with cardiometabolic risk (CMR) in childhood.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included 1742 children born in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2006, and September 30, 2014, and followed up until September 30, 2019. Data from children enrolled in The Applied Research Group for Kids (TARGet Kids!) primary care practice-based research network were linked to administrative health care data at ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences). Participants were excluded if they had conditions affecting growth (eg, failure to thrive or cystic fibrosis), any acute or chronic conditions (other than asthma and high-functioning autism), severe developmental delay, or families who were unable to communicate in English.ExposuresLate preterm birth, gestational age as a continuous measure, and size for gestational age.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was composite CMR score (overall age- and sex-standardized z score of CMR components, including waist circumference, log triglyceride level, glucose level, systolic blood pressure, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level). Secondary outcomes were the individual CMR components. Multivariable linear regression analysis was used to separately evaluate the associations of late preterm birth, continuous gestational age, and size for gestational age with CMR at ages 3 to 12 years.ResultsAmong 2440 eligible children, 1742 (mean [SD] age, 5.6 [2.2] years; 951 boys [54.6%]) were included in the final cohort. Overall, 87 children (5.0%) were born moderately preterm (<34 weeks' gestation), 145 (8.3%) were born late preterm (34-36 weeks' gestation), 455 (26.1%) were born early term (37-38 weeks' gestation), and 1055 (60.6%) were born full term (≥39 weeks' gestation). Compared with children born full term, those born moderately preterm (adjusted β = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.24-0.75) and late preterm (adjusted β = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.06-0.47) had higher CMR scores. Each additional gestational week was associated with a 0.06 U (adjusted β; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.03 U) decrease in CMR.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, children born late preterm and moderately preterm had higher CMR. These results suggest that screening and early-life interventions for these children may prevent cardiometabolic outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundBirths during 1968-1985 at Camp Lejeune were exposed to drinking water contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and benzene.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate associations between residential prenatal exposure to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune during 1968-1985 and preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), term low birth weight (TLBW), and mean birth weight (MBW) deficit. Birth certificates identified mothers residing at Camp Lejeune at delivery. We analyzed exposure data for the entire pregnancy and individual trimesters. For each period examined, births were categorized as unexposed if mothers did not reside at Camp Lejeune or if their residence on base received uncontaminated drinking water. Ground water contaminant fate/transport and distribution system models provided monthly estimated contaminant levels at residences. For PCE and TCE, the exposed group was divided into four levels: < median value, ? median value, ?75th percentile, and ?90th percentile. For benzene, the exposed group was categorized as <1 part per billion (ppb) versus ?1 ppb because of sparse data. Magnitude of effect estimates and exposure response relationships were used to assess associations. Confidence intervals (CIs) indicated precision of estimates.ResultsFor the highest TCE exposure category during the entire pregnancy, odds ratios (ORs) were 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.9) and 1.3 (95% CI: 0.8, 2.2) for SGA and TLBW, respectively, and reduced MBW ? =?-78.3 g (95% CI: -115.0, -41.7). The OR =1.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.6) for preterm birth and the highest PCE exposure category during the entire pregnancy. Monotonic exposure-response relationships were observed for benzene exposure during the entire pregnancy and TLBW (highest category OR =1.5, 85% CI: 0.9, 2.3). Although a monotonic association between benzene and adjusted MBW difference was also observed (highest category ? =?-36.2 g, 95% CI: -72.3, -0.1), the association disappeared when TCE was also added to the model. We found no evidence suggesting any other associations between outcomes and exposures.ConclusionFindings suggested associations between in utero exposures to TCE and SGA, TLBW and reduced MBW; benzene and TLBW; and PCE and preterm birth.

Dataset Information

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

Background

Materials and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

Similar Datasets

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