Dataset Information

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth.

Materials and methods

This was a retrospective birth cohort study to evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth. Participants were mothers who gave birth to their first two children in Western Australia, 1980-2015 (N = 255,151 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative risks (RR) and absolute risks (AR) of subsequent preterm birth defined as final gestational age before 28, 32, 34 and <37 weeks. Risks were unadjusted to preserve risk factor profiles at each week of gestation.

Results

The relative risks of second birth before 28, 32, and 34 weeks' gestation were all approximately twenty times higher for mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks compared to those whose first birth was at 40 weeks' gestation. The absolute risks of second birth before 28, 32, and 34 weeks' gestation for these mothers had upper confidence limits that were all less than 16.74%. The absolute risk of second birth before 37 weeks was highest at 32.11% (95% CI: 30.27, 34.02) for mothers whose first birth was 22 to 30 weeks' gestation. For all gestational ages of the first child, the lowest quartile and median gestational age of the second birth were at least 36 weeks and at least 38 weeks, respectively. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 35%.

Conclusion

Relative risks of early subsequent birth increased markedly with decreasing gestational age of the first birth. However, absolute risks of clinically significant preterm birth (<28 weeks, <32 weeks, <34 weeks), sensitivity and positive predictive values remained low. Early gestational age is a strong risk factor but a poor predictor of subsequent preterm birth.

SUBMITTER: Pereira E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7822520 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

Pereira Elizabeth E Tessema Gizachew G Gissler Mika M Regan Annette K AK Pereira Gavin G

PloS one 20210122 1

<h4>Background</h4>To evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>This was a retrospective birth cohort study to evaluate gestational age as a predictor of subsequent preterm birth. Participants were mothers who gave birth to their first two children in Western Australia, 1980-2015 (N = 255,151 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative risks (RR) and absolute risks (AR) of subsequent preterm b ...[more]

PMID: 33481959

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Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth is the leading cause of death among children <5 years of age. Accurate determination of prematurity is necessary to provide appropriate neonatal care and guide preventive measures. To estimate the most accurate method to identify infants at risk for adverse outcomes, we assessed the validity of two widely available methods-last menstrual period (LMP) and the New Ballard (NB) neonatal assessment-against ultrasound in determining gestational age and preterm birth in highland Guatemala.MethodsPregnant women (n = 188) were recruited with a gestational age <20 weeks and followed until delivery. Ultrasound was performed by trained physicians and LMP was collected during recruitment. NB was performed on infants within 96 hours of birth by trained study nurses. LMP and NB accuracy at determining gestational age and identifying prematurity was assessed by comparing them to ultrasound.ResultsBy ultrasound, infant mean gestational age at birth was 38.3 weeks (SD = 1.6) with 16% born at less than 37 gestation. LMP was more accurate than NB (mean difference of +0.13 weeks for LMP and +0.61 weeks for NB). However, LMP and NB estimates had low agreement with ultrasound-determined gestational age (Lin's concordance<0.48 for both methods) and preterm birth (?<0.29 for both methods). By LMP, 18% were judged premature compared with 6% by NB. LMP underestimated gestational age among women presenting later to prenatal care (0.18 weeks for each additional week). Gestational age for preterm infants was overestimated by nearly one week using LMP and nearly two weeks using NB. New Ballard neuromuscular measurements were more predictive of preterm birth than those measuring physical criteria.ConclusionIn an indigenous population in highland Guatemala, LMP overestimated prematurity by 2% and NB underestimated prematurity by 10% compared with ultrasound estimates. New, simple and accurate methods are needed to identify preterm birth in resource-limited settings worldwide.

Project description:BackgroundBirths during 1968-1985 at Camp Lejeune were exposed to drinking water contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and benzene.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate associations between residential prenatal exposure to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune during 1968-1985 and preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), term low birth weight (TLBW), and mean birth weight (MBW) deficit. Birth certificates identified mothers residing at Camp Lejeune at delivery. We analyzed exposure data for the entire pregnancy and individual trimesters. For each period examined, births were categorized as unexposed if mothers did not reside at Camp Lejeune or if their residence on base received uncontaminated drinking water. Ground water contaminant fate/transport and distribution system models provided monthly estimated contaminant levels at residences. For PCE and TCE, the exposed group was divided into four levels: < median value, ? median value, ?75th percentile, and ?90th percentile. For benzene, the exposed group was categorized as <1 part per billion (ppb) versus ?1 ppb because of sparse data. Magnitude of effect estimates and exposure response relationships were used to assess associations. Confidence intervals (CIs) indicated precision of estimates.ResultsFor the highest TCE exposure category during the entire pregnancy, odds ratios (ORs) were 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.9) and 1.3 (95% CI: 0.8, 2.2) for SGA and TLBW, respectively, and reduced MBW ? =?-78.3 g (95% CI: -115.0, -41.7). The OR =1.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.6) for preterm birth and the highest PCE exposure category during the entire pregnancy. Monotonic exposure-response relationships were observed for benzene exposure during the entire pregnancy and TLBW (highest category OR =1.5, 85% CI: 0.9, 2.3). Although a monotonic association between benzene and adjusted MBW difference was also observed (highest category ? =?-36.2 g, 95% CI: -72.3, -0.1), the association disappeared when TCE was also added to the model. We found no evidence suggesting any other associations between outcomes and exposures.ConclusionFindings suggested associations between in utero exposures to TCE and SGA, TLBW and reduced MBW; benzene and TLBW; and PCE and preterm birth.

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Dataset Information

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

Background

Materials and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Re-evaluation of gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth.

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