Dataset Information

A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February-June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5-20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU-death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Alvarez-Mon M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7827846 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19.

Álvarez-Mon Melchor M Ortega Miguel A MA Gasulla Óscar Ó Fortuny-Profitós Jordi J Mazaira-Font Ferran A FA Saurina Pablo P Monserrat Jorge J Plana María N MN Troncoso Daniel D Moreno José Sanz JS Muñoz Benjamin B Arranz Alberto A Varona Jose F JF Lopez-Escobar Alejandro A Barco Angel Asúnsolo-Del AA

Journal of personalized medicine 20210108 1

This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period ...[more]

PMID: 33430129

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Project description:ImportanceWhile the characteristics of COVID-19 infection and mortality among patients with a malignant neoplasm have previously been examined, little data are available for gender-specific COVID-19 mortality.ObjectiveTo examine the gender-specific COVID-19 case fatality risks among patients with a malignant neoplasm.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's National Inpatient Sample, patients admitted to the hospital from April to December 2020 with a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection were identified by the World Health Organization's International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code U07.1. Data analysis was performed from November 2022 to January 2023.ExposureDiagnosis of malignant neoplasm, identified and classified according to the National Cancer Institute's definition.Main outcome and measureCOVID-19 in-hospital case fatality rate, defined as the number of deaths that occurred during index hospital admissions.ResultsThere were 1 622 755 patients who were admitted to the hospital from April 1 to December 31, 2020, with a diagnosis of COVID-19. The cohort-level COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality rate was 12.9% with a median time to death of 5 days (IQR, 2-11 days). Frequently reported morbidities among the patients with COVID-19 included pneumonia (74.3%), respiratory failure (52.9%), cardiac arrythmia or cardiac arrest (29.3%), acute kidney injury (28.0%), sepsis (24.6%), shock (8.6%), cerebrovascular accident (5.2%), and venous thromboembolism or pulmonary embolism (5.0%). In a multivariable analysis, gender (male vs female, 14.5% vs 11.2%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.27-1.30) and malignant neoplasm (17.9% vs 12.7%; aOR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.27-1.32) were both associated with increased COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality risk at the cohort level. Among the group of female patients, there were 5 malignant neoplasms in which the COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality risk was greater than 2-fold higher. These included anal cancer (23.8%; aOR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.84-4.69), Hodgkin lymphoma (19.5%; aOR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.90-4.08), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (22.4%; aOR, 2.23; 95% CI, 2.02-2.47), lung cancer (24.3%; aOR, 2.21; 95% CI, 2.03-2.39), and ovarian cancer (19.4%; aOR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.79-2.59). Among the group of male patients, Kaposi sarcoma (33.3%; aOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.18-3.66) and malignant neoplasm in the small intestine (28.6%; aOR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.18-3.53) had a greater than 2-fold increased COVID-19 in-hospital case mortality risk.Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this cohort study confirmed the substantial case fatality rate among patients with COVID-19 in the early pandemic experience in 2020 in the US. While COVID-19 in-hospital case fatality risks were lower among women compared with men, the associations of a concurrent malignant neoplasm with the COVID-19 case fatality were overall more substantial for women than for men.

Dataset Information

A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19.

Publications

A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19.

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