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Progression from Pneumonia to ARDS as a Predictor for Fatal COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: There is a serious concern over the variation of case fatality of COVID-19 patients that reflects the preparedness of the medical care system in response to the surge of pneumonia patients. We aimed to quantify the disease spectrum of COVID-19 on which we are based to develop a key indicator on the probability of progression from pneumonia to acute respiratory disease syndrome (ARDS) for fatal COVID-19. The retrospective cohort on 12 countries that have already experienced the epidemic of COVID-19 with available open data on the conformed cases with detailed information on mild respiratory disease (MRD), pneumonia, ARDS, and deaths were used. The pooled estimates from three countries with detailed information were 73% from MRD to pneumonia and 27% from MRD to recovery and the case-fatality rate of ARDS was 43%. The progression from pneumonia to ARDS varied from 3% to 63%. These key estimates were highly associated with the case fatality rates reported for each country with a statistically significant positive relationship (adjusted R² = 95%). Such a quantitative model provides key messages for the optimal medical resources allocation to a spectrum of patients requiring quarantine and isolation at home, isolation wards, and intensive care unit in order to reduce deaths from COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Hsu CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7834113 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Lung ultrasound score to monitor COVID-19 pneumonia progression in patients with ARDS.

Project description:COVID-19 pneumonia typically begins with subpleural ground glass opacities with progressive extension on computerized tomography studies. Lung ultrasound is well suited to this interstitial, subpleural involvement, and it is now broadly used in intensive care units (ICUs). The extension and severity of lung infiltrates can be described numerically with a reproducible and validated lung ultrasound score (LUSS). We hypothesized that LUSS might be useful as a tool to non-invasively monitor the evolution of COVID-19 pneumonia at the bedside. LUSS monitoring was rapidly implemented in the management of our COVID-19 patients with RT-PCR-documented COVID-19. The LUSS was evaluated repeatedly at the bedside. We present a graphic description of the course of LUSS during COVID-19 in 10 consecutive patients admitted in our intensive care unit with moderate to severe ARDS between March 15 and 30th. LUSS appeared to be closely related to the disease progression. In successfully extubated patients, LUSS decreased and was lower than at the time of intubation. LUSS increased inexorably in a patient who died from refractory hypoxemia. LUSS helped with the diagnosis of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), showing an increased score and the presence of new lung consolidations in all 5 patients with VAPs. There was also a good agreement between CT-scans and LUSS as for the presence of lung consolidations. In conclusion, our early experience suggests that LUSS monitoring accurately reflect disease progression and indicates potential usefulness for the management of COVID-19 patients with ARDS. It might help with early VAP diagnosis, mechanical ventilation weaning management, and potentially reduce the need for X-ray and CT exams. LUSS evaluation is easy to use and readily available in ICUs throughout the world, and might be a safe, cheap and simple tool to optimize critically ill COVID-19 patients care during the pandemic.

| S-EPMC7373285 | biostudies-literature

A radiological predictor for pneumomediastinum/pneumothorax in COVID-19 ARDS patients.

Project description:PurposeTo determine whether Macklin effect (a linear collection of air contiguous to the bronchovascular sheath) on baseline CT imaging is an accurate predictor for subsequent pneumomediastinum (PMD)/pneumothorax (PNX) development in invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).Materials and methodsThis is an observational, case-control study. From a prospectively acquired database, all consecutive invasively ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients who underwent at least one baseline chest CT scan during the study time period (February 25th, 2020-December 31st, 2020) were identified; those who had tracheal lesion or already had PMD/PNX at the time of the first available chest imaging were excluded.Results37/173 (21.4%) patients enrolled had PMD/PNX; specifically, 20 (11.5%) had PMD, 10 (5.8%) PNX, 7 (4%) both. 33/37 patients with subsequent PMD/PNX had Macklin effect on baseline CT (89.2%, true positives) 8.5 days [range, 1-18] before the first actual radiological evidence of PMD/PNX. Conversely, 6/136 patients without PMD/PNX (4.4%, false positives) demonstrated Macklin effect (p < 0.001). Macklin effect yielded a sensitivity of 89.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.6-96.9), a specificity of 95.6% (95% CI: 90.6-98.4), a positive predictive value (PV) of 84.5% (95% CI: 71.3-92.3), a negative PV of 97.1% (95% CI: 74.6-96.9) and an accuracy of 94.2% (95% CI: 89.6-97.2) in predicting PMD/PNX (AUC:0.924).ConclusionsMacklin effect accurately predicts, 8.5 days in advance, PMD/PNX development in COVID-19 ARDS patients.

| S-EPMC8357628 | biostudies-literature

Early steroids and ventilator-associated pneumonia in COVID-19-related ARDS.

Project description:RationaleEarly corticosteroid treatment is used to treat COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Infection is a well-documented adverse effect of corticosteroid therapy.ObjectivesTo determine whether early corticosteroid therapy to treat COVID-19 ARDS was associated with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP).MethodsWe retrospectively included adults with COVID-19-ARDS requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) for ≥ 48 h at any of 15 intensive care units in 2020. We divided the patients into two groups based on whether they did or did not receive corticosteroids within 24 h. The primary outcome was VAP incidence, with death and extubation as competing events. Secondary outcomes were day 90-mortality, MV duration, other organ dysfunctions, and VAP characteristics.Measurements and main resultsOf 670 patients (mean age, 65 years), 369 did and 301 did not receive early corticosteroids. The cumulative VAP incidence was higher with early corticosteroids (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.29; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.58; P = 0.016). Antibiotic resistance of VAP bacteria was not different between the two groups (odds ratio 0.94, 95% CI 0.58-1.53; P = 0.81). 90-day mortality was 30.9% with and 24.3% without early corticosteroids, a nonsignificant difference after adjustment on age, SOFA score, and VAP occurrence (aHR 1.15; 95% CI 0.83-1.60; P = 0.411). VAP was associated with higher 90-day mortality (aHR 1.86; 95% CI 1.33-2.61; P = 0.0003).ConclusionsEarly corticosteroid treatment was associated with VAP in patients with COVID-19-ARDS. Although VAP was associated with higher 90-day mortality, early corticosteroid treatment was not. Longitudinal randomized controlled trials of early corticosteroids in COVID-19-ARDS requiring MV are warranted.

| S-EPMC9344449 | biostudies-literature

Proximal Tubular Dysfunction as a Predictor of AKI in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

Project description: Not available

| S-BSST1269 | biostudies-other

Probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 deaths with the progression rate from pneumonia to ARDS: An open-data-based global study.

Project description:BackgroundCumulative data of case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 varied across countries. A forecasting model generated based on detailed information from three countries during the initial phase of pandemic showed that progression rates from pneumonia to ARDS (PRPA) varied by country and were highly associated with CFR. We aim to elucidate the impact of the PRPA on COVID-19 deaths in different periods of pandemic.MethodsWe used the country-based, real-time global COVID-19 data through GitHub repository to estimate PRPA on the first period (January to June), second period (July to September), and third period (October to December) in 2020. PRPA was used for predicting COVID-19 deaths and assessing the reduction in deaths in subsequent two periods.ResultsThe estimated PRPA varied widely from 0.38% to 51.36%, with an average of 15.99% in the first period. The PRPA declined to 8.44% and 6.35% in the second and third period. The CFR declined stepwise and was 4.94%, 2.61%, and 1.96%, respectively. Some countries exhibited a decrease in the PRPA from the second to the third period whereas others showed the opposite, particularly where selected viral mutants were prevalent. Overall, the number of observed deaths was lower than that of the predicted deaths in the second and third periods, suggesting an improvement in management of COVID-19 patients. Besides, the degree of improvement depends on the extent of change in PRPA.ConclusionPRPA is a useful indicator to facilitate decision making and assess the improvement of clinical management and medical capacity by forecasting deaths.

| S-EPMC8165092 | biostudies-literature

Lung ultrasound score as a tool to monitor disease progression and detect ventilator-associated pneumonia during COVID-19-associated ARDS.

Project description:BackgroundLung ultrasound can accurately detect pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pulmonary lesions. A lung ultrasound score (LUS) was developed to improve reproducibility of the technique.ObjectivesTo evaluate the clinical value of LUS monitoring to guide COVID-19-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) management.MethodsWe conducted a single center, prospective observational study, including all patients admitted with COVID-19-associated ARDS between March and April 2020. A systematic daily LUS evaluation was performed.ResultsThirty-three consecutive patients were included. LUS was significantly and negatively correlated to PaO2/FIO2. LUS increased significantly over time in non-survivors compared to survivors. LUS increased in 83% of ventilatory associated pneumonia (VAP) episodes, when compared to the previous LUS evaluation. LUS was not significantly higher in patients presenting post-extubation respiratory failure.ConclusionsIn conclusion, our study demonstrates that LUS variations are correlated to disease severity and progression, and LUS monitoring could contribute to the early diagnosis of VAPs.

| S-EPMC8165084 | biostudies-literature

SOD1 is a possible predictor of COVID-19 progression as revealed by plasma proteomics

Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a worldwide health emergency. Patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 present with diverse symptoms relating to the severity of the disease. Determining the proteomic changes associated with these diverse symptoms and in different stages of infection is beneficial for clinical diagnosis and management. Here, we performed a Tandem Mass Tag (TMT)-labeling proteomic study on the plasma of healthy controls and COVID-19 patients, including those with asymptomatic infection (NS), mild syndrome (MS), and severe syndrome in the early phase (SSEP) and the later phase (SSLP). While the number of patients included in each group is low, our comparative proteomic analysis revealed that complement and coagulation cascades, cholesterol metabolism and glycolysis-related proteins were affected after infection with SARS-CoV-2. Compared to healthy controls, ELISA analysis confirmed that SOD1, PRDX2 and LDHA levels were increased in the patients with severe symptoms. Both gene set enrichment analysis and receiver operator characteristic analysis indicated that SOD1 could be a pivotal indicator for the severity of COVID-19. Our results indicated that plasma proteome changes differed based on symptoms and disease stages and SOD1 could be a predictor protein for indicating COVID-19 progression. These results may also provide new understanding for COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment.

2021-07-05 | PXD024728 | Pride

A fatal case of infective endocarditis complicated by acute COVID-19 pneumonia.

Project description:A 74-year-old man with no co-morbidities presented to hospital with a 3-day history of diarrhoea and vomiting. He met the modified Duke's criteria for definite infective endocarditis and was immediately started on an intravenous antibiotic. Over Days 1-9, he developed renal failure. On Day 10, he was transferred to a tertiary hospital for mitral valve replacement. However, he tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on arrival at the tertiary hospital, which delayed his surgery. He underwent bi-weekly nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 with a plan to operate as soon as he tested negative, or as soon as his incubation period for COVID-19 pneumonia had elapsed. Unfortunately, he died on Day 31 from acute respiratory distress syndrome secondary to COVID-19 pneumonia. We describe the challenges in deciding on the optimal timing for valve replacement. We conclude by suggesting that earlier valve replacement may result in better outcomes.

| S-EPMC8713583 | biostudies-literature

Epidemiology, ventilation management and outcomes of COVID-19 ARDS patients versus patients with ARDS due to pneumonia in the Pre-COVID era.

Project description:BackgroundVentilation management may differ between COVID-19 ARDS (COVID-ARDS) patients and patients with pre-COVID ARDS (CLASSIC-ARDS); it is uncertain whether associations of ventilation management with outcomes for CLASSIC-ARDS also exist in COVID-ARDS.MethodsIndividual patient data analysis of COVID-ARDS and CLASSIC-ARDS patients in six observational studies of ventilation, four in the COVID-19 pandemic and two pre-pandemic. Descriptive statistics were used to compare epidemiology and ventilation characteristics. The primary endpoint were key ventilation parameters; other outcomes included mortality and ventilator-free days and alive (VFD-60) at day 60.ResultsThis analysis included 6702 COVID-ARDS patients and 1415 CLASSIC-ARDS patients. COVID-ARDS patients received lower median VT (6.6 [6.0 to 7.4] vs 7.3 [6.4 to 8.5] ml/kg PBW; p < 0.001) and higher median PEEP (12.0 [10.0 to 14.0] vs 8.0 [6.0 to 10.0] cm H2O; p < 0.001), at lower median ΔP (13.0 [10.0 to 15.0] vs 16.0 [IQR 12.0 to 20.0] cm H2O; p < 0.001) and higher median Crs (33.5 [26.6 to 42.1] vs 28.1 [21.6 to 38.4] mL/cm H2O; p < 0.001). Following multivariable adjustment, higher ΔP had an independent association with higher 60-day mortality and less VFD-60 in both groups. Higher PEEP had an association with less VFD-60, but only in COVID-ARDS patients.ConclusionsOur findings show important differences in key ventilation parameters and associations thereof with outcomes between COVID-ARDS and CLASSIC-ARDS.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov (identifier NCT05650957), December 14, 2022.

| S-EPMC11330602 | biostudies-literature

COVID-19 progression towards ARDS: a genome wide study reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19.

Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection produced by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus epidemic, which was declared a global pandemic in March 2020. The World Health Organization has recorded around 43.3 billion cases and 59.4 million casualties to date, posing a severe threat to global health. Severe COVID-19 indicates viral pneumonia caused by the SARS-CoV-2 infections, which can induce fatal consequences, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The purpose of this research is to better understand the COVID-19 and ARDS pathways, as well as to find targeted single nucleotide polymorphism. To accomplish this, we retrieved over 100 patients' samples from the Sequence Read Archive, National Center for Biotechnology Information. These sequences were processed through the Galaxy server next generation sequencing pipeline for variant analysis and then visualized in the Integrative Genomics Viewer, and performed statistical analysis using t-tests and Bonferroni correction, where six major genes were identified as DNAH7, CLUAP1, PPA2, PAPSS1, TLR4, and IFITM3. Furthermore, a complete understanding of the genomes of COVID-19-related ARDS will aid in the early identification and treatment of target proteins. Finally, the discovery of novel therapeutics based on discovered proteins can assist to slow the progression of ARDS and lower fatality rates.

| S-EPMC10326536 | biostudies-literature

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