Dataset Information

The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

Methods

Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002-3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R₀), and time-varying reproduction number (R_t) of COVID-19 and SARS.

Results

As of 20 March 2020, 80,739 locally acquired COVID-19 cases were identified in mainland China, with most cases reported between 20 January and 29 February 2020. The R₀ value of COVID-19 in China and Wuhan was 5.0 and 4.8, respectively, which was greater than the R₀ value of SARS in Guangdong (R₀ = 2.3), Hong Kong (R₀ = 2.3), and Beijing (R₀ = 2.6). At the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the R_t value in China peaked at 8.4 and then declined quickly to below 1.0 in one month. With SARS, the R_t curve saw fluctuations with more than one peak, the highest peak was lower than that for COVID-19.

Conclusions

COVID-19 has much higher transmissibility than SARS, however, a series of prevention and control interventions to suppress the outbreak were effective. Sustained efforts are needed to prevent the rebound of the epidemic in the context of the global pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Xiao J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7836966 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.

Xiao Jianpeng J Hu Jianxiong J He Guanhao G Liu Tao T Kang Min M Rong Zuhua Z Lin Lifeng L Zhong Haojie H Huang Qiong Q Deng Aiping A Zeng Weilin W Tan Xiaohua X Zeng Siqing S Zhu Zhihua Z Li Jiansen J Gong Dexin D Wan Donghua D Chen Shaowei S Guo Lingchuan L Li Yihan Y Li Yan Y Sun Limei L Liang Wenjia W Song Tie T He Jianfeng J Ma Wenjun W

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20201109

<h4>Objectives</h4>We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).<h4>Methods</h4>Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002-3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R< ...[more]

PMID: 33181330

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Project description:BackgroundApplied epidemiological models are used in predicting future trends of diseases, for the basic understanding of disease and health dynamics, and to improve the measurement of health indicators. Mapping the research outputs of epidemiological modelling studies concerned with transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions in Africa will help to identify the areas with substantial levels of research activities, areas with gaps, and research output trends.MethodsA scoping review of applied epidemiological models of infectious disease studies that involved first or last authors affiliated to African institutions was conducted. Eligible studies were those concerned with the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions. The review was consistent with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) extension for scoping reviews. Four electronic databases were searched for peer-reviewed publications up to the end of April 2020.ResultsOf the 5927 publications identified, 181 met the inclusion criteria. The review identified 143 publications with first authors having an African institutional affiliation (AIA), while 81 had both first and last authors with an AIA. The publication authors were found to be predominantly affiliated with institutions based in South Africa and Kenya. Furthermore, human immunodeficiency virus, malaria, tuberculosis, and Ebola virus disease were found to be the most researched infectious diseases. There has been a gradual increase in research productivity across Africa especially in the last ten years, with several collaborative efforts spread both within and beyond Africa.ConclusionsResearch productivity in applied epidemiological modelling studies of infectious diseases may have increased, but there remains an under-representation of African researchers as leading authors. The study findings indicate a need for the development of research capacity through supporting existing institutions in Africa and promoting research funding that will address local health priorities.

Dataset Information

The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.

Similar Datasets

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