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Extensive phenotype data and machine learning in prediction of mortality in acute coronary syndrome - the MADDEC study.

ABSTRACT: Objective: Investigation of the clinical potential of extensive phenotype data and machine learning (ML) in the prediction of mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods: The value of ML and extensive clinical data was analyzed in a retrospective registry study of 9066 consecutive ACS patients (January 2007 to October 2017). Main outcome was six-month mortality. Prediction models were developed using two ML methods, logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (xgboost). The models were fitted in training set of patients treated in 2007-2014 and 2017 (81%, n?=?7344) and validated in a separate validation set of patients treated in 2015-2016 with full GRACE score data available for comparison of model accuracy (19%, n?=?1722). Results: Overall, six-month mortality was 7.3% (n?=?660). Several variables were found to be significantly associated with six-month mortality by both ML methods. The xgboost scored the best performance: AUC 0.890 (0.864-0.916). The AUC values for logistic regression and GRACE score were 0.867(0.837-0.897) and 0.822 (0.785-0.859), respectively. The AUC value of xgboost was better when compared to logistic regression (p?=?.012) and GRACE score (p?Conclusions: The use of extensive phenotype data and novel machine learning improves prediction of mortality in ACS over traditional GRACE score. KEY MESSAGES The collection of extensive cardiovascular phenotype data from electronic health records as well as from data recorded by physicians can be used highly effectively in prediction of mortality after acute coronary syndrome. Supervised machine learning methods such as logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting using extensive phenotype data significantly outperform conventional risk assessment by the current golden standard GRACE score. Integration of electronic health records and the use of supervised machine learning methods can be easily applied in a single centre level to model the risk of mortality.

SUBMITTER: Hernesniemi JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7857486 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Extensive phenotype data and machine learning in prediction of mortality in acute coronary syndrome - the MADDEC study.

Hernesniemi Jussi A JA Mahdiani Shadi S Tynkkynen Juho A JA Lyytikäinen Leo-Pekka LP Mishra Pashupati P PP Lehtimäki Terho T Eskola Markku M Nikus Kjell K Antila Kari K Oksala Niku N

Annals of medicine 20190301 2

<b>Objective:</b> Investigation of the clinical potential of extensive phenotype data and machine learning (ML) in the prediction of mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). <b>Methods:</b> The value of ML and extensive clinical data was analyzed in a retrospective registry study of 9066 consecutive ACS patients (January 2007 to October 2017). Main outcome was six-month mortality. Prediction models were developed using two ML methods, logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (xgboost ...[more]

PMID: 31030570

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Project description:BackgroundTraditional scoring systems for patients' outcome prediction in intensive care units such as Oxygenation Saturation Index (OSI) and Oxygenation Index (OI) may not reliably predict the clinical prognosis of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Thus, none of them have been widely accepted for mortality prediction in ARDS. This study aimed to develop and validate a mortality prediction method for patients with ARDS based on machine learning using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) and Telehealth Intensive Care Unit (eICU) Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) databases.MethodsPatients with ARDS were selected based on the Berlin definition in MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD databases. The APPS score (using age, PaO2/FiO2, and plateau pressure), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS-II), Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), OSI, and OI were calculated. With MIMIC-III data, a mortality prediction model was built based on the random forest (RF) algorithm, and the performance was compared to those of existing scoring systems based on logistic regression. The performance of the proposed RF method was also validated with the combined MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD data. The performance of mortality prediction was evaluated by using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and performing calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.ResultsWith the MIMIC-III dataset (308 patients, for comparisons with the existing scoring systems), the RF model predicted the in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, and 1-year mortality with an AUROC of 0.891, 0.883, and 0.892, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the SAPS-II, APPS, OSI, and OI (all P<0.001). In the multi-source validation (the combined dataset of 2,235 patients in MIMIC-III and 331 patients in eICU-CRD), the RF model achieved an AUROC of 0.905 and 0.736 for predicting in-hospital mortality for the MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD datasets, respectively. The calibration plots suggested good fits for our RF model and these scoring systems for predicting mortality. The platelet count and lactate level were the strongest predictive variables for predicting in-hospital mortality.ConclusionsCompared to the existing scoring systems, machine learning significantly improved performance for predicting ARDS mortality. Validation with multi-source datasets showed a relatively robust generalisation ability of our prediction model.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The ability to confidently predict health outcomes from gene expression would catalyze a revolution in molecular diagnostics. Yet, the goal of developing actionable, robust, and reproducible predictive signatures of phenotypes such as clinical outcome has not been attained in almost any disease area. Here, we report a comprehensive analysis spanning prediction tasks from ulcerative colitis, atopic dermatitis, diabetes, to many cancer subtypes for a total of 24 binary and multiclass prediction problems and 26 survival analysis tasks. We systematically investigate the influence of gene subsets, normalization methods and prediction algorithms. Crucially, we also explore the novel use of deep representation learning methods on large transcriptomics compendia, such as GTEx and TCGA, to boost the performance of state-of-the-art methods. The resources and findings in this work should serve as both an up-to-date reference on attainable performance, and as a benchmarking resource for further research. RESULTS:Approaches that combine large numbers of genes outperformed single gene methods consistently and with a significant margin, but neither unsupervised nor semi-supervised representation learning techniques yielded consistent improvements in out-of-sample performance across datasets. Our findings suggest that using l2-regularized regression methods applied to centered log-ratio transformed transcript abundances provide the best predictive analyses overall. CONCLUSIONS:Transcriptomics-based phenotype prediction benefits from proper normalization techniques and state-of-the-art regularized regression approaches. In our view, breakthrough performance is likely contingent on factors which are independent of normalization and general modeling techniques; these factors might include reduction of systematic errors in sequencing data, incorporation of other data types such as single-cell sequencing and proteomics, and improved use of prior knowledge.

Dataset Information

Extensive phenotype data and machine learning in prediction of mortality in acute coronary syndrome - the MADDEC study.

Publications

Extensive phenotype data and machine learning in prediction of mortality in acute coronary syndrome - the MADDEC study.

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