Dataset Information

Prognostic Index for Predicting Prostate Cancer Survival in a Randomized Screening Trial: Development and Validation.

ABSTRACT: We developed and validated a prognostic index to predict survival from prostate cancer (PCa) based on the Finnish randomized screening trial (FinRSPC). Men diagnosed with localized PCa (N = 7042) were included. European Association of Urology risk groups were defined. The follow-up was divided into three periods (0-3, 3-9 and 9-20 years) for development and two corresponding validation periods (3-6 and 9-15 years). A multivariable complementary log-log regression model was used to calculate the full prognostic index. Predicted cause-specific survival at 10 years from diagnosis was calculated for the control arm using a simplified risk score at diagnosis. The full prognostic index discriminates well men with PCa with different survival. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.83 for both the 3-6 year and 9-15 year validation periods. In the simplified risk score, patients with a low risk score at diagnosis had the most favorable survival, while the outcome was poorest for the patients with high risk scores. The prognostic index was able to distinguish well between men with higher and lower survival, and the simplified risk score can be used as a basis for decision making.

SUBMITTER: Neupane S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7865328 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic Index for Predicting Prostate Cancer Survival in a Randomized Screening Trial: Development and Validation.

Neupane Subas S Nevalainen Jaakko J Raitanen Jani J Talala Kirsi K Kujala Paula P Taari Kimmo K Tammela Teuvo L J TLJ Steyerberg Ewout W EW Auvinen Anssi A

Cancers 20210124 3

We developed and validated a prognostic index to predict survival from prostate cancer (PCa) based on the Finnish randomized screening trial (FinRSPC). Men diagnosed with localized PCa (<i>N</i> = 7042) were included. European Association of Urology risk groups were defined. The follow-up was divided into three periods (0-3, 3-9 and 9-20 years) for development and two corresponding validation periods (3-6 and 9-15 years). A multivariable complementary log-log regression model was used to calcula ...[more]

PMID: 33498854

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Project description:BackgroundImmuno-oncology (IO) is rapidly evolving in early drug development. We aimed to develop and prospectively validate a prognostic index for patients treated in IO phase I trials to assist with patient selection.MethodsThe development cohort included 192 advanced solid tumor patients treated in 13 IO phase I trials, targeting immune checkpoint and/or co-stimulatory molecules. A prognostic scoring system was developed from multivariate survival analysis of 10 clinical factors, and subsequently validated in two independent validation cohorts (n = 152 and n = 80).ResultsIn the development cohort, median age was 57.5 years (range = 20.4-84.8 years). Median progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) were 13.4 and 73.6 weeks, respectively, 90-day mortality was 16%, and overall response rate was 20%. In multivariate analysis, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status greater than or equal to 1 (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8 to 5.7; P < .001), number of metastatic sites greater than 2 (HR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.3 to 3.1; P = .003), and albumin less than the lower limit of normal (HR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.2 to 2.7; P = .007) were independent prognostic factors; comprising the Princess Margaret Immuno-oncology Prognostic Index (PM-IPI). Patients with a score of 2-3 compared with patients with a score of 0-1 had shorter OS (HR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.9 to 6.1; P < .001), progression-free survival (HR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.7 to 3.2; P < .001), higher 90-day mortality (odds ratio = 8.1, 95% CI = 3.0 to 35.4; P < .001), and lower overall response rate (odds ratio = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.8; P = .019). The PM-IPI retained prognostic ability in both validation cohorts and performed better than previously published phase I prognostic scores for predicting OS in all three cohorts.ConclusionsThe PM-IPI is a validated prognostic score for patients treated in phase I IO trials and may aid in improving patient selection.

Dataset Information

Prognostic Index for Predicting Prostate Cancer Survival in a Randomized Screening Trial: Development and Validation.

Publications

Prognostic Index for Predicting Prostate Cancer Survival in a Randomized Screening Trial: Development and Validation.

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