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Development and external validation of a prostate health index-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer.

ABSTRACT: To develop and externally validate a prostate health index (PHI)-based nomogram for predicting the presence of prostate cancer (PCa) at biopsy in Chinese men with prostate-specific antigen 4-10 ng/mL and normal digital rectal examination (DRE). 347 men were recruited from two hospitals between 2012 and 2014 to develop a PHI-based nomogram to predict PCa. To validate these results, we used a separate cohort of 230 men recruited at another center between 2008 and 2013. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were used to assess the ability to predict PCa. A nomogram was derived from the multivariable logistic regression model and its accuracy was assessed by the area under the ROC (AUC). PHI achieved the highest AUC of 0.839 in the development cohort compared to the other predictors (p < 0.001). Including age and prostate volume, a PHI-based nomogram was constructed and rendered an AUC of 0.877 (95% CI 0.813-0.938). The AUC of the nomogram in the validation cohort was 0.786 (95% CI 0.678-0.894). In clinical effectiveness analyses, the PHI-based nomogram reduced unnecessary biopsies from 42.6% to 27% using a 5% threshold risk of PCa to avoid biopsy with no increase in the number of missed cases relative to conventional biopsy decision.

SUBMITTER: Zhu Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4607975 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background and objectiveAccumulating evidence shows that long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) possess great potential in the diagnosis and prognosis of prostate cancer (PCa). Therefore, this study aimed to construct an lncRNA-based signature to more accurately predict the prognosis of different PCa patients, so as to improve patient management and prognosis.MethodsThrough univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, this study constructed a 4 lncRNAs-based prognosis nomogram for the classification and prediction of survival risk in patients with PCa based on TCGA data. Then we used the data of TCGA and ICGC to verify the performance of our prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted for detecting and validating our prediction model sensitivity and specificity. In addition, Cox regression analysis was conducted to examine whether the signature's prediction ability was independent of additional clinicopathological variables. Possible biological functions for those prognostic lncRNAs were predicted on those 4 protein-coding genes (PCGs) related to lncRNAs.ResultsFour lncRNAs (HOXB-AS3, YEATS2-AS1, LINC01679, PRRT3-AS1) were extracted after COX regression analysis for classifying patients into high and low-risk groups by different OS rates. As suggested by ROC analysis, our proposed model showed high sensitivity and specificity. Independent prognostic capability of the model from other clinicopathological factors was indicated through further analysis. Based on functional enrichment, those action sites for prognostic lncRNAs were mostly located in the extracellular matrix and cell membrane, and their functions are mainly associated with the adhesion, activation and transport of the components across the extracellular matrix or cell membrane.ConclusionOur current study successfully identifies a novel candidate, which can provide more convincing evidence for prognosis in addition to the traditional clinicopathological indicators to predict the PCa survival, and laying the foundation for offering potentially novel therapeutic treatment. Additionally, this study sheds more lights on the PCa-related molecular mechanisms.

Project description:BackgroundProstate cancer (PC) is the second most common malignant tumor, and its survival is of great concern. However, the assessment of survival risk in current studies is limited. This study is to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of survival in PC patients using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.MethodsA total of 153,796 PC patients were included in this cohort study. Patients were divided into a training set (n=107,657) and a testing set (n=46,139). The 3-, 5- and 10-year survival of the PC patients were regarded as the outcomes. Predictors based on the demographic and pathological data for survival were identified by multivariate Cox regression analysis to develop the predictive nomogram. Internal and subgroup validations were performed to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The C-index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and corresponding areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were used to estimate the predictive performance of the nomogram.ResultsAge at diagnosis, race, marital status, tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, prostate specific antigen (PSA) status, Gleason score, and pathological stage were identified as significantly associated with the survival of PC patients (P<0.05). The C-index of the nomogram indicated a moderate predictive ability [training set: C-index =0.782, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.779-0.785; testing set: C-index =0.782, 95% CI: 0.777-0.787]. The AUCs of this nomogram for the 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival were 0.757 (95% CI: 0.756-0.758), 0.741 (95% CI: 0.740-0.742), and 0.716 (95% CI: 0.715-0.717), respectively. The results of subgroup validation showed that all the AUCs for the nomogram at 3, 5, and 10 years were more than 0.70, regardless of marital status and race.ConclusionsWe developed a nomogram with the moderate predictive ability for the long-term survival (3-, 5-, and 10-year survival) of patients with PC.

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Development and external validation of a prostate health index-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer.

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