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Impact of the COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza and other respiratory viral infections in New Zealand.

ABSTRACT: Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns and border closures are not currently recommended for pandemic influenza control. New Zealand used these NPIs to eliminate coronavirus disease 2019 during its first wave. Using multiple surveillance systems, we observed a parallel and unprecedented reduction of influenza and other respiratory viral infections in 2020. This finding supports the use of these NPIs for controlling pandemic influenza and other severe respiratory viral threats.

SUBMITTER: Huang QS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7881137 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of the COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza and other respiratory viral infections in New Zealand.

Huang Q Sue QS Wood Tim T Jelley Lauren L Jennings Tineke T Jefferies Sarah S Daniells Karen K Nesdale Annette A Dowell Tony T Turner Nikki N Campbell-Stokes Priscilla P Balm Michelle M Dobinson Hazel C HC Grant Cameron C CC James Shelley S Aminisani Nayyereh N Ralston Jacqui J Gunn Wendy W Bocacao Judy J Danielewicz Jessica J Moncrieff Tessa T McNeill Andrea A Lopez Liza L Waite Ben B Kiedrzynski Tomasz T Schrader Hannah H Gray Rebekah R Cook Kayla K Currin Danielle D Engelbrecht Chaune C Tapurau Whitney W Emmerton Leigh L Martin Maxine M Baker Michael G MG Taylor Susan S Trenholme Adrian A Wong Conroy C Lawrence Shirley S McArthur Colin C Stanley Alicia A Roberts Sally S Rahnama Fahimeh F Bennett Jenny J Mansell Chris C Dilcher Meik M Werno Anja A Grant Jennifer J van der Linden Antje A Youngblood Ben B Thomas Paul G PG Webby Richard J RJ

Nature communications 20210212 1

Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns and border closures are not currently recommended for pandemic influenza control. New Zealand used these NPIs to eliminate coronavirus disease 2019 during its first wave. Using multiple surveillance systems, we observed a parallel and unprecedented reduction of influenza and other respiratory viral infections in 2020. This finding supports the use of these NPIs for controlling pandemic influenza and other severe respiratory viral ...[more]

PMID: 33579926

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Project description:ImportanceVaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.Design, setting, and participantsAn established agent-based decision analytical model was used to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression from March 24, 2020, to September 23, 2021. The model simulated COVID-19 spread in North Carolina, a US state of 10.5 million people. A network of 1 017 720 agents was constructed from US Census data to represent the statewide population.ExposuresScenarios of vaccine efficacy (50% and 90%), vaccine coverage (25%, 50%, and 75% at the end of a 6-month distribution period), and NPIs (reduced mobility, school closings, and use of face masks) maintained and removed during vaccine distribution.Main outcomes and measuresRisks of infection from the start of vaccine distribution and risk differences comparing scenarios. Outcome means and SDs were calculated across replications.ResultsIn the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy, 25% coverage), a mean (SD) of 2 231 134 (117 867) new infections occurred after vaccination began with NPIs removed, and a mean (SD) of 799 949 (60 279) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained during 11 months. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy, 75% coverage), a mean (SD) of 527 409 (40 637) new infections occurred with NPIs removed and a mean (SD) of 450 575 (32 716) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained. With NPIs removed, lower efficacy (50%) and higher coverage (75%) reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than higher efficacy (90%) and lower coverage (25%) compared with the worst-case scenario (mean [SD] absolute risk reduction, 13% [1%] and 8% [1%], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceSimulation outcomes suggest that removing NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. These findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many prepandemic activities can be resumed.

Dataset Information

Impact of the COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza and other respiratory viral infections in New Zealand.

Publications

Impact of the COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza and other respiratory viral infections in New Zealand.

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