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Effects of Nonpharmaceutical COVID-19 Interventions on Pediatric Hospitalizations for Other Respiratory Virus Infections, Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT: To determine the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for coronavirus disease on pediatric hospitalizations for infection with respiratory viruses other than severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, we analyzed hospital data for 2017-2021. Compared with 2017-2019, age-specific hospitalization rates associated with respiratory viruses greatly decreased in 2020, when NPIs were in place. Also when NPIs were in place, rates of hospitalization decreased among children of all ages for infection with influenza A and B viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, and rhinovirus/enterovirus. Regression models adjusted for age and seasonality indicated that hospitalization rates for acute febrile illness/respiratory symptoms of any cause were reduced by 76% and by 85%-99% for hospitalization for infection with these viruses. NPIs in Hong Kong were clearly associated with reduced pediatric hospitalizations for respiratory viruses; implementing NPIs and reopening schools were associated with only a small increase in hospitalizations for rhinovirus/enterovirus infections.

SUBMITTER: Chiu SS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8714236 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceVaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.Design, setting, and participantsAn established agent-based decision analytical model was used to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression from March 24, 2020, to September 23, 2021. The model simulated COVID-19 spread in North Carolina, a US state of 10.5 million people. A network of 1 017 720 agents was constructed from US Census data to represent the statewide population.ExposuresScenarios of vaccine efficacy (50% and 90%), vaccine coverage (25%, 50%, and 75% at the end of a 6-month distribution period), and NPIs (reduced mobility, school closings, and use of face masks) maintained and removed during vaccine distribution.Main outcomes and measuresRisks of infection from the start of vaccine distribution and risk differences comparing scenarios. Outcome means and SDs were calculated across replications.ResultsIn the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy, 25% coverage), a mean (SD) of 2 231 134 (117 867) new infections occurred after vaccination began with NPIs removed, and a mean (SD) of 799 949 (60 279) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained during 11 months. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy, 75% coverage), a mean (SD) of 527 409 (40 637) new infections occurred with NPIs removed and a mean (SD) of 450 575 (32 716) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained. With NPIs removed, lower efficacy (50%) and higher coverage (75%) reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than higher efficacy (90%) and lower coverage (25%) compared with the worst-case scenario (mean [SD] absolute risk reduction, 13% [1%] and 8% [1%], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceSimulation outcomes suggest that removing NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. These findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many prepandemic activities can be resumed.

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Effects of Nonpharmaceutical COVID-19 Interventions on Pediatric Hospitalizations for Other Respiratory Virus Infections, Hong Kong.

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