Effects of Nonpharmaceutical COVID-19 Interventions on Pediatric Hospitalizations for Other Respiratory Virus Infections, Hong Kong.
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SUBMITTER: Chiu SS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8714236 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ImportanceVaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.Design, setting, and participantsAn established agent-based decision analytical model was used to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression from March 24, 2020, to September 23, 2021. The model simulated COVID-19 spread in North Carolina, a US state of 10.5 million people. A network of 1 017 720 agents was constructed from US Census data to represent the statewide population.ExposuresScenarios of vaccine efficacy (50% and 90%), vaccine coverage (25%, 50%, and 75% at the end of a 6-month distribution period), and NPIs (reduced mobility, school closings, and use of face masks) maintained and removed during vaccine distribution.Main outcomes and measuresRisks of infection from the start of vaccine distribution and risk differences comparing scenarios. Outcome means and SDs were calculated across replications.ResultsIn the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy, 25% coverage), a mean (SD) of 2 231 134 (117 867) new infections occurred after vaccination began with NPIs removed, and a mean (SD) of 799 949 (60 279) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained during 11 months. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy, 75% coverage), a mean (SD) of 527 409 (40 637) new infections occurred with NPIs removed and a mean (SD) of 450 575 (32 716) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained. With NPIs removed, lower efficacy (50%) and higher coverage (75%) reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than higher efficacy (90%) and lower coverage (25%) compared with the worst-case scenario (mean [SD] absolute risk reduction, 13% [1%] and 8% [1%], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceSimulation outcomes suggest that removing NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. These findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many prepandemic activities can be resumed.
| S-EPMC8170542 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns and border closures are not currently recommended for pandemic influenza control. New Zealand used these NPIs to eliminate coronavirus disease 2019 during its first wave. Using multiple surveillance systems, we observed a parallel and unprecedented reduction of influenza and other respiratory viral infections in 2020. This finding supports the use of these NPIs for controlling pandemic influenza and other severe respiratory viral threats.
| S-EPMC7881137 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns and border closures are not currently recommended for pandemic influenza control. New Zealand used these NPIs to eliminate coronavirus disease 2019 during its first wave. Using multiple surveillance systems, we observed a parallel and unprecedented reduction of influenza and other respiratory viral infections in 2020. This finding supports the use of these NPIs for controlling pandemic influenza and other severe respiratory viral threats.
| S-EPMC7668762 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.MethodsWe fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.ResultsWe projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation.ConclusionsA wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.
| S-EPMC10710953 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was launched in Beijing, China, on January 24, 2020, to control coronavirus disease 2019. To reveal the roles of NPIs on the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), respiratory specimens collected from children with acute respiratory tract infection between July 2017 and Dec 2021 in Beijing were screened by capillary electrophoresis-based multiplex PCR (CEMP) assay. Specimens positive for RSV were subjected to a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and genotyped by G gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis using iqtree v1.6.12. The parallel and fixed (paraFix) mutations were analyzed with the R package sitePath. Clinical data were compared using SPSS 22.0 software. Before NPIs launched, each RSV endemic season started from October/November to February/March of the next year in Beijing. After that, the RSV positive rate abruptly dropped from 31.93% in January to 4.39% in February 2020; then, a dormant state with RSV positive rates ≤1% from March to September, a nearly dormant state in October (2.85%) and November (2.98%) and a delayed endemic season in 2020, and abnormal RSV positive rates remaining at approximately 10% in summer until September 2021 were detected. Finally, an endemic RSV season returned in October 2021. There was a game between Subtypes A and B, and RSV-A replaced RSV-B in July 2021 to become the dominant subtype. Six RSV-A and eight RSV-B paraFix mutations were identified on G. The percentage of severe pneumonia patients decreased to 40.51% after NPIs launched. NPIs launched in Beijing seriously interfered with the endemic season of RSV.
| S-EPMC9878212 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.
| S-EPMC7720203 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC2744223 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceAn association between pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been previously established. However, it is unclear whether the decrease in IPD incidence observed after implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with concomitant changes in pneumococcal carriage and respiratory viral infections.ObjectiveTo assess changes in IPD incidence after the implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic and examine their temporal association with changes in pneumococcal carriage rate and respiratory viral infections (specifically respiratory syncytial virus [RSV] and influenza cases) among children in France.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used interrupted time series analysis of data from ambulatory and hospital-based national continuous surveillance systems of pneumococcal carriage, RSV and influenza-related diseases, and IPD between January 1, 2007, and March 31, 2021. Participants included 11 944 children younger than 15 years in France.ExposuresImplementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic.Main outcomes and measuresThe estimated fraction of IPD change after implementation of NPIs and the association of this change with concomitant changes in pneumococcal carriage rate and RSV and influenza cases among children younger than 15 years. The estimated fraction of change was analyzed using a quasi-Poisson regression model.ResultsDuring the study period, 5113 children (median [IQR] age, 1.0 [0.6-4.0] years; 2959 boys [57.9%]) had IPD, and 6831 healthy children (median [IQR] age, 1.5 [0.9-3.9] years; 3534 boys [51.7%]) received a swab test. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. After NPI implementation, IPD incidence decreased by 63% (95% CI, -82% to -43%; P < .001) and was similar for non-13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes with both high disease potential (-63%; 95% CI, -77% to -48%; P < .001) and low disease potential (-53%; 95% CI, -70% to -35%; P < .001). The overall pneumococcal carriage rate did not significantly change after NPI implementation (-12%; 95% CI, -37% to 12%; P = .32), nor did the carriage rate for non-PCV13 serotypes with high disease potential (-26%; 95% CI, -100% to 52%; P = .50) or low disease potential (-7%; 95% CI, -34% to 20%; P = .61). After NPI implementation, the estimated number of influenza cases decreased by 91% (95% CI, -74% to -97%; P < .001), and the estimated number of RSV cases decreased by 74% (95% CI, -55% to -85%; P < .001). Overall, the decrease in influenza and RSV cases accounted for 53% (95% CI, -28% to -78%; P < .001) and 40% (95% CI, -15% to -65%; P = .002) of the decrease in IPD incidence during the NPI period, respectively. The decrease in IPD incidence was not associated with pneumococcal carriage, with carriage accounting for only 4% (95% CI, -7% to 15%; P = .49) of the decrease.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of data from multiple national continuous surveillance systems, a decrease in pediatric IPD incidence occurred after the implementation of NPIs in France; this decrease was associated with a decrease in viral infection cases rather than pneumococcal carriage rate. The association between pneumococcal carriage and IPD was potentially modified by changes in the number of RSV and influenza cases, suggesting that interventions targeting respiratory viruses, such as immunoprophylaxis or vaccines for RSV and influenza, may be able to prevent a large proportion of pediatric IPD cases.
| S-EPMC9240903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We have recently described the discovery of a novel coronavirus, coronavirus HKU1 (CoV-HKU1), associated with community-acquired pneumonia. However, the clinical spectrum of disease and the epidemiology of CoV-HKU1 infections in relation to infections with other respiratory viruses are unknown. In this 12-month prospective study, 4,181 nasopharyngeal aspirates from patients with acute respiratory tract infections were subjected to reverse transcription-PCRs specific for CoV-HKU1 and human coronaviruses NL63 (HCoV-NL63), OC43 (HCoV-OC43), and 229E (HCoV-229E). Coronaviruses were detected in 87 (2.1%) patients, with 13 (0.3%) positive for CoV-HKU1, 17 (0.4%) positive for HCoV-NL63, 53 (1.3%) positive for HCoV-OC43, and 4 (0.1%) positive for HCoV-229E. Of the 13 patients with CoV-HKU1 infections, 11 were children and 8 had underlying diseases. Similar to the case for other coronaviruses, upper respiratory infection was the most common presentation of CoV-HKU1 infections, although pneumonia, acute bronchiolitis, and asthmatic exacerbation also occurred. Despite a shorter duration of fever (mean, 1.7 days) and no difference in maximum temperature in children with CoV-HKU1 infections compared to patients with most other respiratory virus infections, a high incidence of febrile seizures (50%) was noted, which was significantly higher than those for HCoV-OC43 (14%), adenovirus (9%), human parainfluenza virus 1 (0%), and respiratory syncytial virus (8%) infections. CoV-HKU1 and HCoV-OC43 infections peaked in winter, although cases of the former also occurred in spring to early summer. This is in contrast to HCoV-NL63 infections, which mainly occurred in early summer and autumn but were absent in winter. Two genotypes of CoV-HKU1 cocirculated during the study period. Continuous studies over a longer period are warranted to ascertain the seasonal variation and relative importance of the different coronaviruses. Similar studies in other countries are required to better determine the epidemiology and genetic diversity of CoV-HKU1.
| S-EPMC1489438 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDuring the initial COVID-19 response, Germany's Federal Government implemented several nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that were instrumental in suppressing early exponential spread of SARS-CoV-2. NPI effect on the transmission of other respiratory viruses has not been examined at the national level thus far.MethodsUpper respiratory tract specimens from 3580 patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI), collected within the nationwide German ARI Sentinel, underwent RT-PCR diagnostics for multiple respiratory viruses. The observation period (weeks 1-38 of 2020) included the time before, during and after a far-reaching contact ban. Detection rates for different viruses were compared to 2017-2019 sentinel data (15350 samples; week 1-38, 11823 samples).FindingsThe March 2020 contact ban, which was followed by a mask mandate, was associated with an unprecedented and sustained decline of multiple respiratory viruses. Among these, rhinovirus was the single agent that resurged to levels equalling those of previous years. Rhinovirus rebound was first observed in children, after schools and daycares had reopened. By contrast, other nonenveloped viruses (i.e. gastroenteritis viruses reported at the national level) suppressed after the shutdown did not rebound.InterpretationContact restrictions with a subsequent mask mandate in spring may substantially reduce respiratory virus circulation. This reduction appears sustained for most viruses, indicating that the activity of influenza and other respiratory viruses during the subsequent winter season might be low,whereas rhinovirus resurgence, potentially driven by transmission in educational institutions in a setting of waning population immunity, might signal predominance of rhinovirus-related ARIs.FundingRobert Koch-Institute and German Ministry of Health.
| S-EPMC8183189 | biostudies-literature