Dataset Information

Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.

Design

A retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.

Setting

We use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.

Participants

A total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.

Primary outcome measures

Regression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).

Results

Statistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.

Conclusions

Higher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (-0.0395 to -0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (-0.0311 to -0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (-0.0108 to -0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (-0.0150 to -0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Wang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7893211 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The effects of temperature and relative humidity on different types of children's allergic diseases have not been comprehensively evaluated so far. This study aims to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity variability on children's allergic diseases and to identify the critical time window. We collected outpatient data on allergen testing in children between July 2020 and January 2022 from the Affiliated Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. We defined the 1st, 10th, 90th, and 99th percentiles as extreme cold, moderate cold, moderate hot, and extreme hot for temperature, and as low, moderate high, and extreme high for relative humidity, respectively. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a binomial regression model was used to assess the possible nonlinear relationship at different periods. Subgroup analysis by gender and age was conducted. We found that extreme and moderate cold temperatures were positively associated with skin allergies and total allergies (28 days: OR = 4.69, 95% CI: 2.88, 7.63; OR = 3.36, 95% CI: 2.39, 4.73) and (28 days: OR = 3.76, CI: 2.43, 5.81; OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 2.00, 3.68), respectively. Moderate and extreme hot temperatures were negatively associated with food allergies (28 days: OR = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.41 and OR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.27). Low relative humidity was negatively associated with respiratory allergies, skin allergies, and total allergic diseases (28 days: OR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.71; OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.55; and OR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.68). Meanwhile, extreme high relative humidity was negatively associated with respiratory allergies, and positively associated with skin allergies, food allergies, and total allergies (28 days: OR = 0.16, 95%CI: 0.07, 0.37; OR = 3.60, 95% CI: 2.52, 5.14; OR = 15.61, 95% CI: 3.23, 75.56; and OR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.73, 3.15). A stronger relationship between temperature, relative humidity, and allergic diseases was observed in children under 5 years, specifically girls. Our study provides evidence that temperature and relative humidity variability may be associated with allergic diseases, however, the directionality of the relationship differs by allergic type.