Pitfalls of exceptions for COVID-19 travel quarantine: lessons from a dignitary visit to Thailand.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mungaomklang A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7901055 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:During the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand implemented a quarantine program at approved quarantine facilities for every international traveler. Here, we report an epidemiological and genomic investigation of a COVID-19 cluster consisting of seven healthcare workers (HCWs) at a quarantine facility and its partnered hospital in Thailand. Outbreak investigations were implemented to obtain contact tracing data and to establish chains of transmission. Genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 with samples within the cohort was performed. Investigations of 951 HCWs and staff with quarantined travelers were implemented to determine the chain of transmission. Genomic and outbreak investigations identified the international travelers infected with the B.1.1.31 SARS-CoV-2 lineage as the source of this outbreak. The genomic data and the investigated timeline revealed a putative transmission chain among HCWs, pointing toward the transmission via the use of common living quarters at the investigated quarantine site. The evaluation of this cohort has led to a policy recommendation on quarantine facility management. International travel quarantine is an important strategy to contain importation of COVID-19 cases. However, a quarantine facility is likely to become a potential hotspot, requiring thorough preventive measures. Reducing the exposure risk by providing private living quarters and scheduling clinical duties at a quarantine site separated from the conventional healthcare workforce have been implemented.
| S-EPMC8437180 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNumerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.MethodsWe developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient."FindingsWe present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.InterpretationFor nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts.FundingEasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).
| S-EPMC8743228 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNumerous countries imposed strict travel restrictions, contributing to the large socioeconomic burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. The long quarantines that apply to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.MethodsWe developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient."FindingsWe present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.InterpretationFor nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts.FundingEasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).
| S-EPMC8562544 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:The emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had resulted in an unpresented global pandemic. In the initial events, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia implemented mandatory quarantine of returning travelers in order to contain COVID-19 cases. MATERIALS AND METHODS:This is a longitudinal study of the arriving travelers to Quarantine facilities and the prevalence of positive SARS-CoV-2 as detected by RT-PCR. RESULTS:During the study period, there was a total of 1928 returning travelers with 1273 (66%) males. The age range was 28 days-69 years. Of all the travelers, 23 (1.2%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of the first swab, 14/1928 (0.7%) tested positive. The positivity rate was 0.63% and 0.92% among males and females, respectively (P = 0.57). The second swab was positive in 9 (0.5%) of the other 1914 who were initially negative with a positivity rate of 0.39% and 0.62% among males and females, respectively (P = 0.49). There was no statistical difference in the positivity rates between first and second swab (P = 0.4). Of all travelers, 40 (n = 26, 1.3%) were admitted from the quarantine facility to the hospital due to COVID-19 related positive results or development of symptoms such as fever, cough, and respiratory symptoms; and 14 (0.7%) were admitted due to non-COVID-19 related illness. CONCLUSION:This study showed the efforts put for facility quarantine and that such activity yielded a lower incidence of positive cases. There was a need to have a backup healthcare facility to accommodate those developing a medical need for evaluation and admission for non-COVID-19 related illnesses.
| S-EPMC7547317 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent history, COVID-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks currently affecting humanity globally. Using real data on the COVID-19 outbreak from 22 January 2020 to 30 March 2020, we developed a mathematical model to investigate the impact of control measures in reducing the spread of the disease. Analyses of the model were carried out to determine the dynamics. The results of the analyses reveal that, using the data from China, implementing all possible control measures best reduced the rate of secondary infections. However, quarantine (isolation) of infectious individuals is shown to have the most dominant effect. This possibility emphasizes the need for extensive testing due to the possible prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.
| S-EPMC7502247 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveAs the potential spread of COVID-19 sparked by imported cases from overseas will pose continuous challenges, it is essential to estimate the effects of control measures on reducing the importation risk of COVID-19. Our objective is to provide a framework of methodology for quantifying the combined effects of entry restrictions and travel quarantine on managing the importation risk of COVID-19 and other pandemics by leveraging different sets of parameters.MethodsThree major categories of control measures on controlling importation risk were parameterized and modelled by the framework: 1) entry restrictions, 2) travel quarantine, and 3) domestic containment measures. Integrating the parameterized intensity of control measures, a modified SEIR model was developed to simulate the case importation and local epidemic under different scenarios of global epidemic dynamics. A web-based tool was also provided to enable interactive visualization of epidemic simulation.ResultsThe simulated number of case importation and local spread modelled by the proposed framework of methods fitted well to the historical epidemic curve of China and Singapore. Based on the simulation results, the total numbers of infected cases when reducing 30% of visitor arrivals would be 88·4 (IQR 87·5-89·6) and 58·8 (IQR 58·3-59·5) times more than those when reducing 99% of visitor arrivals in mainland China and Singapore respectively, assuming actual time-varying Rt and travel quarantine policy. If the number of global daily new infections reached 100,000, 85%-91% of inbound travels should be reduced to keep the daily new infected number below 100 for a country with a similar travel volume as Singapore (daily 52,000 tourist arrivals in 2019). Whereas if the number was lower than 10,000, the daily new infected case would be less than 100 even with no entry restrictions.DiscussionsWe proposed a framework that first estimated the intensity of travel restrictions and local containment measures for countries since the first overseas imported case. Our approach then quantified the combined effects of entry restrictions and travel quarantine using a modified SEIR model to simulate the potential epidemic spread under hypothetical intensities of these control measures. We also developed a web-based system that enables interactive simulation, which could serve as a valuable tool for health system administrators to assess policy effects on managing the importation risk. By leveraging different sets of parameters, it could adapt to any specific country and specific type of epidemic.ConclusionsThis framework has provided a valuable tool to parameterize the intensity of control measures, simulate both the case importation and local epidemic, and quantify the combined effects of entry restrictions and travel quarantine on managing the importation risk.
| S-EPMC8102072 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7262264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As economic woes of the COVID-19 pandemic deepen, strategies are being formulated to avoid the need for prolonged stay-at-home orders, while implementing risk-based quarantine, testing, contact tracing and surveillance protocols. Given limited resources and the significant economic, public health, and operational challenges of the current 14-day quarantine recommendation, it is vital to understand if shorter but equally effective quarantine and testing strategies can be deployed. To quantify the probability of post-quarantine transmission upon isolation of a positive test, we developed a mathematical model in which we varied quarantine duration and the timing of molecular tests for three scenarios of entry into quarantine. Specifically, we consider travel quarantine, quarantine of traced contacts with an unknown time if infection, and quarantine of cases with a known time of exposure. With a one-day delay between test and result, we found that testing on exit (or entry and exit) can reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortened quarantine by at most one day. Testing on exit more effectively reduces post-quarantine transmission than testing upon entry. Furthermore, we identified the optimal testing date within quarantines of varying duration, finding that testing on exit was most effective for quarantines lasting up to seven days. As a real-world validation of these principles, we analyzed the results of 4,040 SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR tests administered to offshore oil rig employees. Among the 47 positives obtained with a testing on entry and exit strategy, 16 cases that previously tested negative at entry were identified, with no further cases detected among employees following quarantine exit. Moreover, this strategy successfully prevented an expected nine offshore transmission events stemming from cases who had tested negative on the entry test, each one a serious concern for initiating rapid spread and a disabling outbreak in the close quarters of an offshore rig. This successful outcome highlights that appropriately timed testing can make shorter quarantines more effective, thereby minimizing economic impacts, disruptions to operational integrity, and COVID-related public health risks.
| S-EPMC7654919 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For COVID-19, it is vital to understand if quarantines shorter than 14 days can be equally effective with judiciously deployed testing. Here, we develop a mathematical model that quantifies the probability of post-quarantine transmission incorporating testing into travel quarantine, quarantine of traced contacts with an unknown time of infection, and quarantine of cases with a known time of exposure. We find that testing on exit (or entry and exit) can reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortens quarantine by at most one day. In a real-world test of our theory applied to offshore oil rig employees, 47 positives were obtained with testing on entry and exit to quarantine, of which 16 had tested negative at entry; preventing an expected nine offshore transmission events that each could have led to outbreaks. We show that appropriately timed testing can make shorter quarantines effective.
| S-EPMC7788536 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required.
| S-EPMC8137690 | biostudies-literature