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Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world causing substantial numbers of cases and deaths in most countries. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This has paralyzed economic and social activities and may continue to do so until the large-scale availability of a vaccine. We propose an alternative exit strategy to develop herd immunity in a predictable and controllable way: a phased lift of control. This means that successive parts of the country (e.g. provinces) stop stringent control, and COVID-19-related IC admissions are distributed over the country as a whole. Importantly, vulnerable individuals need to be shielded until herd immunity has developed in their area. We explore the characteristics and duration of this strategy using a novel individual-based model for geographically stratified transmission of COVID-19 in a country. The model predicts that individuals will have to experience stringent control for about 14 months on average, but this duration may be almost halved by further developments (more IC beds, better treatments). Clearly, implementation of this strategy would have a profound impact on individuals and society, and should therefore be considered carefully by various other disciplines (e.g. health systems, ethics, economics) before actual implementation.

SUBMITTER: de Vlas SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7904921 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control.

de Vlas Sake J SJ Coffeng Luc E LE

Scientific reports 20210224 1

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world causing substantial numbers of cases and deaths in most countries. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This has paralyzed economic and social activities and may continue to do so until the large-scale availability of a vaccine. We propose an alternative exit strategy to develop herd immunity in a predictable and controllable way: a phased lift of control. This means that successive p ...[more]

PMID: 33627674

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Project description:Introduction: Racial minority groups have been disproportionately affected by the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Vaccine hesitancy may be a major barrier to achieving equitable herd immunity and must be addressed to reduce the excess morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in disproportionately affected communities. This study aimed to determine if COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and its factors vaccine complacency and confidence, are more prominent among disproportionately affected racial minority groups. Methods:We collected data from participants aged 18 years or older from the four most populous U.S. states, including New York, California, Florida, and Texas, and Canada. Data were collected using a web-based survey platform. Data are available at http://www.covid19-database.com. Results:Data from 4,434 participants were included [mean (SD) age = 48.7 (17.2) and 50.4% women]. Vaccine hesitancy was higher in Black, Indigenous (Native American and Indigenous People of Canada, including First Nations, Inuit and Métis), and Latinx compared to White participants, while no difference was found between East Asian and White participants. The group differences in vaccine hesitancy for Indigenous and Black compared to White participants remained after controlling for sociodemographic factors. Determinants of vaccine complacency were equivalent between disproportionately affected racial groups and white participants. Vaccine confidence (i.e., trust in vaccine benefit) was generally lower in all racial groups compared to White participants. Differences in vaccine mistrust comparing Black and East Asian to White participants remained after controlling for sociodemographic factors. Discussion:Disproportionately affected racial minorities may have higher vaccine hesitancy and lower confidence in COVID-19 vaccines. Public health and other relevant government services should address vaccine hesitancy among racial minorities using a culturally sensitive, community-centered approach to attain equitable herd immunity.

Dataset Information

Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control.

Publications

Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control.

Similar Datasets

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