External Validation of the Acute Kidney Injury Risk Prediction Score for Critically Ill Surgical Patients Who Underwent Major Non-Cardiothoracic Surgery.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication encountered in an intensive care unit (ICU). In 2020, the AKI prediction score was developed specifically for critically ill surgical patients who underwent major non-cardiothoracic surgeries. This study aimed to externally validate the AKI prediction score in terms of performance and clinical utility.Methods
External validation was carried out in a prospective cohort of patients admitted to the ICU of the Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital between September 2014 and September 2015. The endpoint was AKI within seven days following ICU admission. Discriminative ability was based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AuROC). Calibration and clinical usefulness were evaluated.Results
A total of 201 patients were included in the analysis. AKI occurred in 37 (18.4%) patients. The discriminative ability dropped from good in the derivation cohort, to acceptable in the validation cohort (0.839 (95%CI 0.825-0.852) vs. 0.745 (95%CI 0.652-0.838)). No evidence of lack-of-fit was identified (p = 0.754). The score had potential clinical usefulness across the range of threshold probability from 10 to 50%.Conclusions
The AKI prediction score showed an acceptable discriminative performance and calibration with potential clinical usefulness for predicting AKI risk in surgical patients who underwent major non-cardiothoracic surgery.
SUBMITTER: Trongtrakul K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7919279 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
External Validation of the Acute Kidney Injury Risk Prediction Score for Critically Ill Surgical Patients Who Underwent Major Non-Cardiothoracic Surgery.
Trongtrakul Konlawij K Patumanond Jayanton J Phairatwet Piyarat P Sawawiboon Chaiwut C Chitsomkasem Anusang A Kurathong Sathit S Prommoon Surasee S Trakarnvanich Thananda T Phinyo Phichayut P
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) 20210215 2
<h4>Background</h4>Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication encountered in an intensive care unit (ICU). In 2020, the AKI prediction score was developed specifically for critically ill surgical patients who underwent major non-cardiothoracic surgeries. This study aimed to externally validate the AKI prediction score in terms of performance and clinical utility.<h4>Methods</h4>External validation was carried out in a prospective cohort of patients admitted to the ICU of the Faculty of M ...[more]
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Project description:PurposeEnd-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is a major worldwide health problem. Patients with ESKD are thought to have a significant risk for development of complications following an operation. However, the study of ESKD and its outcomes following major operations remains rare, particularly in critical illness. Therefore, this study aimed to demonstrate how the outcomes of ESKD patients were affected when they underwent a major operation and were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), compared with non-ESKD patients.MethodsA retrospective matched case cohort study was conducted in 122 critically ill surgical patients who underwent a major operation and were admitted to the ICU, during 2013 and 2016. Sixty-one ESKD patients who required long-term dialysis were enrolled and compared with 61 matched non-ESKD patients. The matching criteria were the same age interval (±5 years), gender, and type of operation. The ICU mortality was compared to the primary outcome of the study.ResultsPatients' baseline characteristics between ESKD and non-ESKD were similar to a priori matching criteria and other demographics, except for pre-existing diabetes mellitus and hypertension, which were found significantly more in ESKD (p = 0.03 and 0.04, respectively). For operations, ESKD showed a higher grade of the American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) physical status (p < 0.001), but there were no differences for emergency surgery (p = 0.71) and duration of operation (p = 0.34). At ICU admission, the severity of illness measured by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was greater in ESKD (8.9 ± 2.6 vs 5.6 ± 2.5; p < 0.001). However, after eliminating renal domain, SOFA non-renal score was equivalent (5.7 ± 2.2 vs 5.2 ± 2.3, p = 0.16). The ICU mortality was significantly higher in critically-ill surgical patients with ESKD than non-ESKD (23% vs 5%, p=0.007), along with hospital mortality rates (34% vs 10%, p = 0.002). The multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for age and SOFA non-renal score demonstrated that ESKD had a significant association with ICU and hospital mortality (adjOR = 5.59; 95%CI [1.49-20.88], p = 0.01 and adjOR = 4.55; 95%CI[1.67-12.44], p = 0.003, respectively).ConclusionPatients who underwent a major operation and needed intensive care admission with pre-existing ESKD requiring long-term dialysis were associated with greater mortality than patients without ESKD. More careful assessment before, during, and after major surgical procedures should be performed in this group of patients to improve post-operative outcomes.
| S-EPMC8101474 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:There has been a global increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), including among critically-ill surgical patients. AKI prediction score provides an opportunity for early detection of patients who are at risk of AKI; however, most of the AKI prediction scores were derived from cardiothoracic surgery. Therefore, we aimed to develop an AKI prediction score for major non-cardiothoracic surgery patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS:The data of critically-ill patients from non-cardiothoracic operations in the Thai Surgical Intensive Care Unit (THAI-SICU) study were used to develop an AKI prediction score. Independent prognostic factors from regression analysis were included as predictors in the model. The outcome of interest was AKI within 7?days after the ICU admission. The AKI diagnosis was made according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO)-2012 serum creatinine criteria. Diagnostic function of the model was determined by area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AuROC). Risk scores were categorized into four risk probability levels: low (0-2.5), moderate (3.0-8.5), high (9.0-11.5), and very high (12.0-16.5) risk. Risk of AKI was presented as likelihood ratios of positive (LH+). RESULTS:A total of 3474 critically-ill surgical patients were included in the model; 333 (9.6%) developed AKI. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age, high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) non-renal score, emergency surgery, large volume of perioperative blood loss, less urine output, and sepsis were identified as independent predictors for AKI. Then AKI prediction score was created from these predictors. The summation of the score was 16.5 and had a discriminative ability for predicting AKI at AuROC?=?0.839 (95% CI 0.825-0.852). LH+ for AKI were: low risk?=?0.117 (0.063-0.200); moderate risk?=?0.927 (0.745-1.148); high risk?=?5.190 (3.881-6.910); and very high risk?=?9.892 (6.230-15.695), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The function of AKI prediction score to predict AKI among critically ill patients who underwent non-cardiothoracic surgery was good. It can aid in early recognition of critically-ill surgical patients who are at risk from ICU admission. The scores could guide decision making for aggressive strategies to prevent AKI during the perioperative period or at ICU admission. TRIAL REGISTRATION:TCTR20190408004, registered on April 4, 2019.
| S-EPMC7271390 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:In order to identify critically ill patients with high nutritional risk the modified NUTrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC)-score was developed. This score aims to identify patients that will benefit from nutritional interventions. Few data are available on its validity. In The Netherlands, the MUST-score, a nutritional assessment tool for non-ICU patients, is commonly used in the ICU. To validate the mNUTRIC-score in Dutch ICU patients and compare its prognostic performance with the MUST-score. SUBJECTS/METHODS:A single-center retrospective cohort study among 475 mechanically ventilated patients. Prognostic performance of the mNUTRIC and MUST-scores were assessed and compared for discriminative abilities for 28-day mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation (>2 days). RESULTS:The discriminative ability of the mNUTRIC-score for 28-day mortality is (ROC-AUC) 0.768 (95% CI 0.722-0.814) with an associated LR+ of 1.73 (95% CI 1.53-1.95) and LR- of 0.24 (95% CI 0.14-0.39) when comparing low with high (>4) scores. Comparing low with high MUST-scores (>1) a ROC-AUC of 0.513 (95% CI 0.445-0.587) and LR+ of 1.05 (95%CI 0.77-1.45) and LR- of 0.97 (95% CI 0.71-1.17) for mortality were found. The discriminative ability for prolonged ventilation was 0.666 (95% CI 0.616-0.716) and 0.532 (95% CI 0.469-0.594) for the mNUTRIC and MUST-scores, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The prognostic performance of the mNUTRIC-score for 28-day mortality is fair and comparable to other validation studies. The association with prolonged ventilation was not confirmed by our results. The mNUTRIC-score has better performance than the commonly used MUST-score. Therefore, we suggest abandoning use of the MUST-score and to recommend introduction of the mNUTRIC-score for the nutritional risk assessment of critically ill patients.
| S-EPMC5842932 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCurrently, no universally accepted standardized VTE risk assessment model (RAM) is specifically designed for critically ill patients. Although the ICU-venous thromboembolism (ICU-VTE) RAM was initially developed in 2020, it lacks prospective external validation.ObjectivesTo evaluate the predictive performance of the ICU-VTE RAM in terms of VTE occurrence in mixed medical-surgical ICU patients.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled adult patients in the ICU. The ICU-VTE score and Caprini or Padua score were calculated at admission, and the incidence of in-hospital VTE was investigated. The performance of the ICU-VTE RAM was evaluated and compared with that of Caprini or Padua RAM using the receiver operating curve.ResultsWe included 269 patients (median age: 70 years; 62.5% male). Eighty-three (30.9%) patients experienced inpatient VTE. The AUC of the ICU-VTE RAM was 0.743 (95% CI, 0.682-0.804, P < 0.001) for mixed medical-surgical ICU patients. Comparatively, the performance of the ICU-VTE RAM was superior to that of the Pauda RAM (AUC: 0.727 vs 0.583, P < 0.001) in critically ill medical patients and the Caprini RAM (AUC: 0.774 vs 0.617, P = 0.128) in critically ill surgical patients, although the latter comparison was not statistically significant.ConclusionsThe ICU-VTE RAM may be a practical and valuable tool for identifying and stratifying VTE risk in mixed medical-surgical critically ill patients, aiding in managing and preventing VTE complications.
| S-EPMC11367694 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionPatients undergoing major cardiothoracic or abdominal surgery are at increased risk of developing post-operative pulmonary complications (PPC), but respiratory physiotherapy can prevent PPC. We have previously developed the PPC Risk Prediction Score to allocate physiotherapists' resources and stratify patients into three risk groups. In this study, we performed a temporal external validation of the PPC Risk Prediction Score. Such validation is rare and adds to the originality of this study.MethodsA cohort of 360 patients, admitted to undergo elective cardiothoracic or abdominal surgery, were included. Performance and clinical usefulness of the PPC Risk Prediction Score were estimated through discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness, and the score was updated.ResultsThe score showed c-statistics of 0.62. Related to clinical usefulness, a cut point at 8 gave a sensitivity of 0.49 and a specificity of 0.70, whereas a cut point at 12 gave a sensitivity of 0.13 and a specificity of 0.95. Two predictors included in the development sample score, thoraco-abdominal incision odds ratio (OR) 2.74 (1.12;6.71) and sternotomy OR 2.09 (1.18;3.72), were statistically significantly associated to PPC in the validation sample.ConclusionsThe score was not able to discriminate between patients with and without PPC; neither was the updated score, but the study identified clinically relevant risk factors for developing PPC.
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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To derive and validate a score that correlates with an objective measurement of a child's effort of breathing. DESIGN:Secondary analysis of a previously conducted observational study. SETTING:The pediatric and cardiothoracic ICUs of a quaternary-care children's hospital. PATIENTS:Patients more than 37 weeks gestational age to age 18 years who were undergoing extubation. INTERVENTIONS:Effort of breathing was measured in patients following extubation using esophageal manometry to calculate pressure rate product. Simultaneously, members of a multidisciplinary team (nurse, physician, and respiratory therapist) assessed respiratory function using a previously validated tool. Elements of the tool that were significantly associated with pressure rate product in univariate analysis were identified and included in a multivariate model. An Effort of Breathing score was derived from the results of the model using data from half of the subjects (derivation cohort) and then validated using data from the remaining subjects (validation cohort) by calculating the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for pressure rate product greater than 90th percentile and for the need for reintubation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Among 409 subjects, the median age was 5 months, and nearly half were cardiac surgery patients (49.1%). Retractions, stridor, and pulsus paradoxus were included in the Simple Score. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for pressure rate product greater than 90th percentile was 0.8359 (95% CI, 0.7996-0.8722) in the derivation cohort and 0.7930 (0.7524-0.8337) in the validation cohort. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for reintubation was 0.7280 (0.6807-0.7752) when all scores were analyzed individually and was 0.7548 (0.6644-0.8452) if scores from three clinicians from different disciplines were summated. Results were similar regardless of provider discipline or training. CONCLUSIONS:A scoring system was derived and validated, performed acceptably to predict increased effort of breathing or need for advanced respiratory support and may function best when used by a team.
| S-EPMC6322953 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human skin associated microbiota are increasingly described by culture-independent methods that showed an unexpected diversity with variation correlated with several pathologies. A role of microbiota disequilibrium in infection occurrence is hypothesized, particularly in surgical site infections. We study the diversities of operative site microbiota and its dynamics during surgical pathway of patients undergoing coronary-artery by-pass graft (CABG). Pre-, per-, and post-operative samples were collected from 25 patients: skin before the surgery, superficially and deeply during the intervention, and healing tissues. Bacterial diversity was assessed by DNA fingerprint using 16S rRNA gene PCR and Temporal Temperature Gel Electrophoresis (TTGE). The diversity of Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) at the surgical site was analyzed according to the stage of surgery. From all patients and samples, we identified 147 different OTUs belonging to the 6 phyla Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, and Fusobacteria. High variations were observed among patients but common themes can be observed. The Firmicutes dominated quantitatively but were largely encompassed by the Proteobacteria regarding the OTUs diversity. The genera Propionibacterium and Staphylococcus predominated on the preoperative skin, whereas very diverse Proteobacteria appeared selected in peri-operative samples. The resilience in scar skin was partial with depletion in Actinobacteria and Firmicutes and increase of Gram-negative bacteria. Finally, the thoracic operative site presents an unexpected bacterial diversity, which is partially common to skin microbiota but presents particular dynamics. We described a complex bacterial community that gathers pathobionts and bacteria deemed to be environmental, opportunistic pathogens and non-pathogenic bacteria. These data stress to consider surgical microbiota as a "pathobiome" rather than a reservoir of individual potential pathogens.
| S-EPMC4292786 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe CARDOT scores have been developed for prediction of respiratory complications after thoracic surgery. This study aimed to externally validate the CARDOT score and assess the predictive value of preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for postoperative respiratory complication.MethodsA retrospective cohort study of consecutive thoracic surgical patients at a single tertiary hospital in northern Thailand was conducted. The development and validation datasets were collected between 2006 and 2012 and from 2015 to 2021, respectively. Six prespecified predictive factors were identified, and formed a predictive score, the CARDOT score (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, right-sided operation, duration of surgery, preoperative oxygen saturation on room air, thoracotomy), was calculated. The performance of the CARDOT score was evaluated in terms of discrimination by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AuROC) curve and calibration.ResultsThere were 1086 and 1645 patients included in the development and validation datasets. The incidence of respiratory complications was 15.7% (171 of 1086) and 22.5% (370 of 1645) in the development and validation datasets, respectively. The CARDOT score had good discriminative ability for both the development and validation datasets (AuROC 0.789 (95% CI 0.753-0.827) and 0.758 (95% CI 0.730-0.787), respectively). The CARDOT score showed good calibration in both datasets. A high NLR (≥ 4.5) significantly increased the risk of respiratory complications after thoracic surgery (P < 0.001). The AuROC curve of the validation cohort increased to 0.775 (95% CI 0.750-0.800) when the score was combined with a high NLR. The AuROC of the CARDOT score with the NLR showed significantly greater discrimination power than that of the CARDOT score alone (P = 0.008).ConclusionsThe CARDOT score showed a good discriminative performance in the external validation dataset. An addition of a high NLR significantly increases the predictive performance of CARDOT score. The utility of this score is valuable in settings with limited access to preoperative pulmonary function testing.
| S-EPMC11363378 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo determine whether there are clinically relevant and reproducible Vasoactive Inotrope Score (VIS) trajectories in children with shock during the acute phase of critical illness.DesignRetrospective, observational cohort study.SettingTwo tertiary, academic PICUs.PatientsChildren (< 18 yr old) who required vasoactive infusions within 24 hours of admission to the PICU. Those admitted post cardiac surgery were excluded.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsAn hourly VIS was calculated for the first 72 hours after initiation of vasoactives. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was applied to a derivation set (75% of encounters) and compared with the trajectories in a validation set (25% of encounters) using the same variables. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome was multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) on day 7. A total of 1,828 patients met inclusion criteria, and 309 (16.9%) died. GBTM identified four subgroups that were reproducible in the validation set: "Mild, fast resolving shock" ( n = 853 [47%]; mortality 9%), "Moderate, slow resolving shock" ( n = 422 [23%]; mortality 15%), "Moderate, prolonged shock" ( n = 312 [17%]; mortality 21%), and "Severe, prolonged shock" ( n = 241 [13%]; mortality 40%). There was a significant difference in mortality, MODS on day 7, and suspected infection ( p < 0.001) across groups. The "Mild, fast resolving shock" and "Severe, prolonged shock" groups were identifiable within the first 24 hours. The "Moderate, slow resolving" and "Moderate, prolonged shock" groups were indistinguishable in the first 24 hours after initiation of vasoactives but differed in in-hospital mortality and MODS on day 7. Hydrocortisone administration was independently associated with poor outcomes in the "Mild, fast resolving shock" group.ConclusionsWe uncovered four distinct and reproducible VIS trajectory groups that were associated with different risk factors, response to therapy, and outcomes in children with shock. Characterizing VIS trajectory groups in the acute phase of critical illness may enable better prognostication and more targeted management.
| S-EPMC9722555 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Acute kidney injury is a common complication of major surgery. However, acute kidney injury occurring within the first 48 hours after surgery (early acute kidney injury) and therefore likely related to the surgery itself is possibly different from acute kidney injury occurring after 48 hours (late acute kidney injury). The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology and identify differences in risk factors and outcomes between early and late acute kidney injury following major surgery. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING:Academic Medical Center. PATIENTS:Patients admitted to ICU following noncardiac major surgery. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:We analyzed data from 3,499 patients and defined acute kidney injury according to full Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria and classified as early (48?hr or less) or late (> 48?hr to 7 d) based on time from surgery. Separate multivariable logistic regression models were fit to identify risk factors of early acute kidney injury compared with no acute kidney injury and risk factors of late acute kidney injury compared with no acute kidney injury. Overall 41.7% (1,459/3,499) developed early acute kidney injury versus 14.4% (504/3,499) late acute kidney injury. Most acute kidney injury occurred within 48 hours following surgery and 12 hours was the peak interval. Risk factors for early acute kidney injury included increased age, body mass index, decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate, and anemia, whereas late acute kidney injury cases were closely associated with postoperative factors, like sepsis, mechanical ventilation, positive fluid balance, blood transfusions and exposure to diuretics, vasopressors, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. After adjusting for age, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, comorbidities, surgery type, both early acute kidney injury (odds ratio [95% CI], 1.84 [1.50-2.27]) and late acute kidney injury (odds ratio [95% CI], 1.42 [1.09-1.85]) were associated with higher 1-year mortality compared with patients without acute kidney injury. We found similar results in a validation cohort of 10,723 patients admitted between 2008 and 2014. CONCLUSIONS:Most surgery-related acute kidney injury occurred within 48 hours of surgery. Acute kidney injury occurring within the first 48 hours was associated with underlying health, whereas acute kidney injury occurring after 48 hours was related to postoperative complications or drugs. Design of clinical and experimental interventions for acute kidney injury in this population should consider these differences.
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