Epidemiological transition to mortality and refracture following an initial fracture.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ho-Le TP
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7924952 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Epidemiological transition to mortality and refracture following an initial fracture.
Ho-Le Thao Phuong TP Tran Thach S TS Bliuc Dana D Pham Hanh M HM Frost Steven A SA Center Jacqueline R JR Eisman John A JA Nguyen Tuan V TV
eLife 20210209
This study sought to redefine the concept of fracture risk that includes refracture and mortality, and to transform the risk into "skeletal age". We analysed data obtained from 3521 women and men aged 60 years and older, whose fracture incidence, mortality, and bone mineral density (BMD) have been monitored since 1989. During the 20-year follow-up period, among 632 women and 184 men with a first incident fracture, the risk of sustaining a second fracture was higher in women (36%) than in men (22 ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundSub-national analyses of causes of death and time-trends help to define public health policy priorities. They are particularly important in countries undergoing epidemiological transition like Peru. There are no studies exploring Peruvian national and regional characteristics of such epidemiological transition. We aimed to describe Peru's national and regional mortality profiles between 1996 and 2000.MethodsRegistered mortality data for the study period were corrected for under-registration following standardized methods. Main causes of death by age group and by geographical region were determined. Departmental mortality profiles were constructed to evaluate mortality transition, using 1996 data as baseline. Annual cumulative slopes for the period 1996-2000 were estimated for each department and region.ResultsFor the study period non-communicable diseases explained more than half of all causes of death, communicable diseases more than one third, and injuries 10.8% of all deaths. Lima accounted for 32% of total population and 20% of total deaths. The Andean region, with 38% of Peru's population, accounted for half of all country deaths. Departmental mortality predominance shifted from communicable diseases in 1996 towards non-communicable diseases and injuries in 2000. Maternal and perinatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies and nutritional anaemia declined markedly in all departments and regions. Infectious diseases decreased in all regions except Lima. In all regions acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of death, but their proportion ranged from 9.3% in Lima and Callao to 15.3% in the Andean region. Tuberculosis and injuries ranked high in Lima and the Andean region.ConclusionPeruvian mortality shows a double burden of communicable and non-communicable, with increasing importance of non-communicable diseases and injuries. This challenges national and sub-national health system performance and policy making.
| S-EPMC2640471 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) occurring during the course of osteoporosis treatment usually lead to discontinuation of anti-resorptive (AR) drugs. However, the risk of fracture after an AFF is unknown. We conducted a follow-up study of patients with AFF matched 1:3 for age and gender with patients with a peripheral major osteoporotic fracture (pMOF), in the setting of a fracture liaison service, to investigate the incidence of subsequent low-trauma fractures. Fifty-five patients with AFF (95% women, age [mean ± standard deviation] 75 ± 10 years, 89% exposed to AR drugs), followed for 6.2 ± 3.7 years, were compared to 165 matched controls with a pMOF (hip 85%) followed for 4.3 ± 2.6 years. During the follow-up, 38% of patients in the AFF group and 16% in the pMOF group received AR therapies. Continuation of AR drugs after an AFF was associated with contralateral AFF in 27% of subjects. The risks of new low-trauma, major osteoporotic and imminent (within 2 years) fractures, were similar between the two groups: incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) of subsequent fracture following AFF relative to pMOF, 1.30 (95% CI, 0.82-2.04), 1.28 (95% CI, 0.74-2.15), and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.54-2.15), respectively. Moreover, the risk of sustaining multiple fractures per participant was significantly increased among patients with AFF compared to pMOF (hazard ratio 1.48 [95% CI, 1.00-2.19]; p = 0.049). When taking mortality into account, the risk of subsequent fractures tended to be higher in the AFF group (sub-hazard ratio 1.42 [95% CI, 0.95-2.12]). In conclusion, patients who sustained an AFF are at high risk of subsequent fragility fractures, at least equal or even greater to the risk observed after a pMOF. However, continuation of AR drugs increases the risk of contralateral AFF. Therefore, optimal modalities for secondary fracture prevention after AFF require further evaluation. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
| S-EPMC9298806 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hip fractures are a global health problem with a high postoperative mortality rate. Preoperative predictors for early mortality could be used to optimise and personalise healthcare strategies. This study aimed to identify predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery. Cohort studies examining independent preoperative predictors for mortality following hip fracture surgery were identified through a systematic search on Scopus and PubMed. Predictors for 30-day mortality were the primary outcome, and predictors for mortality within 1 year were secondary outcomes. Primary outcomes were analysed with random-effects meta-analyses. Confidence in the cumulative evidence was assessed using the GRADE criteria. Secondary outcomes were synthesised narratively. Thirty-three cohort studies involving 462,699 patients were meta-analysed. Five high-quality evidence predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: age per year (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07), ASA score ≥ 3 (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 2.12-3.42), male gender (OR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.85-2.18), institutional residence (OR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.31-2.49), and metastatic cancer (OR: 2.83, 95% CI: 2.58-3.10). Additionally, six moderate-quality evidence predictors were identified: chronic renal failure, dementia, diabetes, low haemoglobin, heart failures, and a history of any malignancy. Weak evidence was found for non-metastatic cancer. This review found relevant preoperative predictors which could be used to identify patients who are at high risk of 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery. For some predictors, the prognostic value could be increased by further subcategorising the conditions by severity.
| S-EPMC10957669 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Seasonal patterns of mortality have been identified in Sub-Saharan Africa but their changes over time are not well documented.Objective: Based on death notification data from Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, this study assesses seasonal patterns of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age groups and evaluates how these patterns changed over the period 1976-2015.Methods: Monthly numbers of deaths by cause were obtained from death registers maintained by the Municipal Hygiene Office in charge of verifying deaths before the issuance of burial permits. Generalized Additive Mixed regression models (GAMM) were used to test for seasonality in mortality and its changes over the last four decades, controlling for long-term trends in mortality.Results: Among children, risks of dying were the highest during the hot and rainy season, but seasonality in child mortality has significantly declined since the mid-1970s, as a result of declines in the burden of infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies. In adults aged 60 and above, all-cause mortality rates are the highest in the dry and cold season, due to peaks in cardiovascular diseases, with little change over time. Overall, changes in the seasonality of all-cause mortality have been driven by shifts in the hierarchy of causes of death, while changes in the seasonality within broad categories of causes of death have been modest.Conclusion: Shifts in disease patterns brought about by the epidemiological transition, rather than changes in seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality, are the main drivers of trends in the seasonality of all-cause mortality.
| S-EPMC7034494 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecent studies are lacking reports on mortality after non-hip fractures in adults aged >?65.MethodsThis retrospective, matched-cohort study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, Canada, contained in the ICES Data Repository. Patients aged 66?years and older with an index fragility fracture occurring at any osteoporotic site between 2011 and 2015 were identified from acute hospital admissions, emergency and ambulatory care using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and data were analyzed until 2017. Thus, follow-up ranged from 2?years to 6?years. Patients were excluded if they presented with an index fracture occurring at a non-osteoporotic fracture site, their index fracture was associated with a trauma code, or they experienced a previous fracture within 5?years prior to their index fracture. This fracture cohort was matched 1:1 to controls within a non-fracture cohort by date, sex, age, geography and comorbidities. All-cause mortality risk was assessed.ResultsThe survival probability for up to 6?years post-fracture was significantly reduced for the fracture cohort vs matched non-fracture controls (p <?0.0001; n =?101,773 per cohort), with the sharpest decline occurring within the first-year post-fracture. Crude relative risk of mortality (95% confidence interval) within 1-year post-fracture was 2.47 (2.38-2.56) in women and 3.22 (3.06-3.40) in men. In the fracture vs non-fracture cohort, the absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at any site was 12.5% vs 5.1% in women and 19.5% vs 6.0% in men. The absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at a non-hip vs hip site was 9.4% vs 21.5% in women and 14.4% vs 32.3% in men.ConclusionsIn this real-world cohort aged >?65?years, a fragility fracture occurring at any site was associated with reduced survival for up to 6?years post-fracture. The greatest reduction in survival occurred within the first-year post-fracture, where mortality risk more than doubled and deaths were observed in 1 in 11 women and 1 in 7 men following a non-hip fracture and in 1 in 5 women and 1 in 3 men following a hip fracture.
| S-EPMC7824940 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo compare the efficacies of two pathways-conventional and fast-track care-in patients with hip fracture.DesignRetrospective single-centre study.SettingUniversity hospital in middle Norway.Participants1820 patients aged ≥65 years with hip fracture (intracapsular, intertrochanteric or subtrochanteric).Interventions788 patients were treated according to conventional care from April 2008 to September 2011, and 1032 patients were treated according to fast-track care from October 2011 to December 2013.Primary and secondary outcomePrimary: mortality and readmission to hospital, within 365 days follow-up. Secondary: length of stay.ResultsWe found no statistically significant differences in mortality and readmission rate between patients in the fast-track and conventional care models within 365 days after the initial hospital admission. The conventional care group had a higher, no statistical significant mortality HR of 1.10 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.31, p=0.326) without and 1.16 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.40, p=0.118) with covariate adjustment. Regarding the readmission, the conventional care group sub-HR was 1.02 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.18, p=0.822) without and 0.97 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.12, p=0.644) with adjusting for covariates. Length of stay and time to surgery was statistically significant shorter for patients who received fast-track care, a mean difference of 3.4 days and 6 hours, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in sex, type of fracture, age or Charlson Comorbidity Index score at baseline between patients in the two pathways.ConclusionsThere was insufficient evidence to show an impact of fast-track care on mortality and readmission. Length of stay and time to surgery were decreased.Trial registration numberNCT00667914; results.
| S-EPMC5724094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The AHFS90 was developed for the prediction of early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 has a good accuracy and in most risk categories a good calibration. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.PurposeIdentifying hip fracture patients with a high risk of early mortality after surgery could help make treatment decisions and information about the prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a risk score for predicting early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery (AHFS90).MethodsPatients ≥ 90 years, surgically treated for a hip fracture, were included. A selection of possible predictors for mortality was made. Missing data were subjected to multiple imputations using chained equations. Logistic regression was performed to develop the AHFS90, which was internally and externally validated. Calibration was assessed using a calibration plot and comparing observed and predicted risks.ResultsOne hundred and two of the 922 patients (11.1%) died ≤ 30 days following hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 includes age, gender, dementia, living in a nursing home, ASA score, and hemoglobin level as predictors for early mortality. The AHFS90 had good accuracy (area under the curve 0.72 for geographic cross validation). Predicted risks correspond with observed risks of early mortality in four risk categories. In two risk categories, the AHFS90 overestimates the risk. In one risk category, no mortality was observed; therefore, no analysis was possible. The AHFS90 had a maximal prediction of early mortality of 64.5% in this study population.ConclusionThe AHFS90 accurately predicts early mortality after hip fracture surgery in patients ≥ 90 years of age. Predicted risks correspond to observed risks in most risk categories. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.
| S-EPMC10104941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purpose - Most guidelines use patient age as a primary decision factor when choosing between osteosynthesis or arthroplasty in displaced femoral neck fractures. We evaluate reoperation and death risk within 1 year after osteosynthesis, and estimate the influence of age, sex, degree of displacement, and bone quality.Patients and methods - All surgeries for femoral neck fractures with parallel implants (2 or 3 screws or pins) performed between December 2011 and November 2015 were collected from the Danish Fracture Database. Radiographs were analyzed for initial displacement, quality of reduction, protrusion, and angulation of implants. The bone quality was estimated using the cortical thickness index (CTI). Garden I and II type fractures with posterior tilt < 20° were excluded.Results - 654 patients with a mean age of 69 years were included. 59% were female. 54% were Garden II with posterior tilt > 20° or Garden III, and 46% were Garden IV. Only 38% were adequately reduced. 19% underwent reoperation and 18% died within 12 months. Female sex, surgical delay between 12 and 24 hours vs. < 12 hours, Garden IV type fracture, inadequate reduction, and protrusion of an implant were associated with statistically significant increased reoperation risk. No significant association between reoperation and age, CTI, or the initial angulation of implants was found. Notably, CTI was linked inversely with death risk.Interpretation - Reoperation risk is linked mainly to primary displacement and reduction of the fracture, with no apparent effect of age or bone quality. Bone quality may be linked with risk of death.
| S-EPMC7006706 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiabetes prevalence and body mass index reflect the nutritional profile of populations but have opposing effects on tuberculosis risk. Interactions between diabetes and BMI could help or hinder TB control in growing, aging, urbanizing populations.Methods and findingsWe compiled data describing temporal changes in BMI, diabetes prevalence and population age structure in rural and urban areas for men and women in countries with high (India) and low (Rep. Korea) TB burdens. Using published data on the risks of TB associated with these factors, we calculated expected changes in TB incidence between 1998 and 2008. In India, TB incidence cases would have increased (28% from 1.7 m to 2.1 m) faster than population size (22%) because of adverse effects of aging, urbanization, changing BMI and rising diabetes prevalence, generating an increase in TB incidence per capita of 5.5% in 10 years. In India, general nutritional improvements were offset by a fall in BMI among the majority of men who live in rural areas. The growing prevalence of diabetes in India increased the annual number of TB cases in people with diabetes by 46% between 1998 and 2008. In Korea, by contrast, the number of TB cases increased more slowly (6.1% from 40,200 to 42,800) than population size (14%) because of positive effects of urbanization, increasing BMI and falling diabetes prevalence. Consequently, TB incidence per capita fell by 7.8% in 10 years. Rapid population aging was the most significant adverse effect in Korea.ConclusionsNutritional and demographic changes had stronger adverse effects on TB in high-incidence India than in lower-incidence Korea. The unfavourable effects in both countries can be overcome by early drug treatment but, if left unchecked, could lead to an accelerating rise in TB incidence. The prevention and management of risk factors for TB would reinforce TB control by chemotherapy.
| S-EPMC3119681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study examined the imminent risk of a future fracture within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture in women aged 50 years and older and assessed independent factors associated with risk of subsequent fractures. The study highlights the need to intervene rapidly after a fracture to prevent further fractures. INTRODUCTION:This study aims to determine the imminent risk of subsequent fractures within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture and to assess independent factors associated with subsequent fractures. METHODS:Retrospective, observational cohort study of women aged ≥ 50 years with a fragility fracture was identified from Swedish national registers. Clinical/demographic characteristics at the time of index fracture and cumulative fracture incidences up to 12 and 24 months following index fracture were calculated. Risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS:Two hundred forty-two thousand one hundred eight women (mean [SD] age 74 [12.5] years) were included. The cumulative subsequent fracture incidence at 12 months was 7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.9-7.2) and at 24 months was 12.0% (95% CI, 11.8-12.1). The rate of subsequent fractures was highest in the first month (~ 15 fractures per 1000 patient-years) and remained steady between 4 and 24 months (~ 5 fractures/1000 patient-years). Higher age was an independent risk factor for imminent subsequent fractures (at 24 months, sub-distribution hazard ratio [HR], 3.07; p < 0.001 for women 80-89 years [reference 50-59 years]). Index vertebral fracture was a strong independent risk factor for subsequent fracture (sub-distribution HR, 2.72 versus hip fracture; p < 0.001 over 12 months; HR, 2.23; p < 0.001 over 24 months). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings highlight the need to intervene rapidly after any fragility fracture in postmenopausal women. The occurrence of a fragility fracture provides healthcare systems with a unique opportunity to intervene to reduce the increased risk of subsequent fractures.
| S-EPMC6422949 | biostudies-literature