Dataset Information

A clinical calculator to predict disease outcomes in women with triple-negative breast cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive subtype of breast cancer, characterized by substantial risks of early disease recurrence and mortality. We constructed and validated clinical calculators for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) for TNBC.

Methods

Data from 605 women with centrally confirmed TNBC who underwent primary breast cancer surgery at Mayo Clinic during 1985-2012 were used to train risk models. Variables included age, menopausal status, tumor size, nodal status, Nottingham grade, surgery type, adjuvant radiation therapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, Ki67, stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTIL) score, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Final models were internally validated for calibration and discrimination using ten-fold cross-validation and compared with their base-model counterparts which include only tumor size and nodal status. Independent external validation was performed using data from 478 patients diagnosed with stage II/III invasive TNBC during 1986-1992 in the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit database.

Results

Final RFS and OS models were well calibrated and associated with C-indices of 0.72 and 0.73, as compared with 0.64 and 0.62 of the base models (p?ConclusionsThis TNBC clinical calculator can be used to predict patient outcomes and may aid physician's communication with TNBC patients regarding their long-term disease outlook and planning treatment strategies.

SUBMITTER: Polley MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7925385 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A clinical calculator to predict disease outcomes in women with triple-negative breast cancer.

Polley Mei-Yin C MC Leon-Ferre Roberto A RA Leung Samuel S Cheng Angela A Gao Dongxia D Sinnwell Jason J Liu Heshan H Hillman David W DW Eyman-Casey Abraham A Gilbert Judith A JA Negron Vivian V Boughey Judy C JC Liu Minetta C MC Ingle James N JN Kalari Krishna K Couch Fergus F Carter Jodi M JM Visscher Daniel W DW Nielsen Torsten O TO Goetz Matthew P MP

Breast cancer research and treatment 20210103 3

<h4>Purpose</h4>Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive subtype of breast cancer, characterized by substantial risks of early disease recurrence and mortality. We constructed and validated clinical calculators for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) for TNBC.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from 605 women with centrally confirmed TNBC who underwent primary breast cancer surgery at Mayo Clinic during 1985-2012 were used to train risk models. Variables inclu ...[more]

PMID: 33389409

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Project description:Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in peripheral blood has been used to predict prognosis and therapeutic response for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients. However, previous approaches typically use large comprehensive panels of genes commonly mutated across all breast cancers. Given the reduction in sequencing costs and decreased turnaround times associated with panel generation, the objective of this study was to assess the use of custom micro-panels for tracking disease and predicting clinical outcomes for patients with TNBC. Paired tumor-normal samples from patients with TNBC were obtained at diagnosis (T0) and whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed to identify somatic variants associated with individual tumors. Custom micro-panels of 4-6 variants were created for each individual enrolled in the study. Peripheral blood was obtained at baseline, during Cycle 1 Day 3, at time of surgery, and in 3-6 month intervals after surgery to assess variant allele fraction (VAF) at different timepoints during disease course. The VAF was compared to clinical outcomes to evaluate the ability of custom micro-panels to predict pathological response, disease-free intervals, and patient relapse. A cohort of 50 individuals were evaluated for up to 48 months post-diagnosis of TNBC. In total, there were 33 patients who did not achieve pathological complete response (pCR) and seven patients developed clinical relapse. For all patients who developed clinical relapse and had peripheral blood obtained ≤ 6 months prior to relapse (n = 4), the custom ctDNA micro-panels identified molecular relapse at an average of 4.3 months prior to clinical relapse. The custom ctDNA panel results were moderately associated with pCR such that during disease monitoring, only 11% of patients with pCR had a molecular relapse, whereas 47% of patients without pCR had a molecular relapse (Chi-Square; p-value = 0.10). In this study, we show that a custom micro-panel of 4-6 markers can be effectively used to predict outcomes and monitor remission for patients with TNBC. These custom micro-panels show high sensitivity for detecting molecular relapse in advance of clinical relapse. The use of these panels could improve patient outcomes through early detection of relapse with preemptive intervention prior to symptom onset.

Project description:BackgroundNeoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is considered a standard treatment strategy for locally advanced triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). TNBC patients who achieve a pathologic complete response (pCR) are predicted to have a better prognosis while unfavorable chemo-sensitivity is still associated with a higher risk of disease relapse. The objective of this study was to construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS) for TNBC patients following NACT.MethodsA total of 165 TNBC patients who underwent standard NACT and surgery were retrospectively reviewed, and data on their clinicopathological factors before and after NACT were collected. Independent prognostic factors for DFS were identified by Cox regression based on lower Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). A nomogram to predict the 2-year and 5-year DFS following NACT for TNBC was constructed based on training cohort (n = 132) and validated by a validation cohort (n = 33).ResultsEither limited or full pCR (breast-only pCR, node-only pCR, or both-pCR) indicated significantly improved DFS and overall survival (OS) (p < 0.001). Lager residual tumor size (hazard ratio [HR] 1.175, p = 0.011) and the presence of lymphatic vessel invasion (LVI) (HR 3.168, p = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of disease relapse in the training cohort. Five variables, including age, primary tumor size, histological grade, residual tumor size, and LVI were used to establish the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.815, and calibration curves showed an acceptable consistency between the actual and nomogram-predicted 2-year and 5-year DFS. The proposed nomogram demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) classification and the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer Post Neoadjuvant Therapy Classification (AJCC ypTNM) staging system (area under the curve [AUC] for 2-year DFS: 0.870 vs. 0.758 vs. 0.711, respectively; AUC for 5-year DFS: 0.794 vs. 0.731 vs. 0.702, respectively) in the validation cohort.ConclusionsThe nomogram proposed in our study enabled to quantify the risk of disease relapse and demonstrated superior predictive performance than a survival predict instrument. It was an easy-to-use tool for clinicians to guide individualized surveillance of TNBC patients following standard NACT.

Dataset Information

A clinical calculator to predict disease outcomes in women with triple-negative breast cancer.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Publications

A clinical calculator to predict disease outcomes in women with triple-negative breast cancer.

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