Dataset Information

The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment.

ABSTRACT:

Background

SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission.

Objective

With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world.

Methods

Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions.

Results

In regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region.

Conclusions

Ecological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.

SUBMITTER: Baral SD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7927952 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment.

Baral Stefan David SD Rucinski Katherine Blair KB Twahirwa Rwema Jean Olivier JO Rao Amrita A Prata Menezes Neia N Diouf Daouda D Kamarulzaman Adeeba A Phaswana-Mafuya Nancy N Mishra Sharmistha S

JMIR public health and surveillance 20210302 3

<h4>Background</h4>SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission.<h4>Objective</h4>With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world.<h4>Methods</h4>Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for inf ...[more]

PMID: 33522974

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveTo comprehensively assess the global, regional and national burden of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (DLYs) based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional descriptive study. Data on PCOS incidence, prevalence, and DLYs from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the GBD study 2019. According to the commonwealth income, WHO region, and the sociodemographic index, the estimates were demonstrated along with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The EAPC data were analyzed by four levels of hierarchical clustering and displayed in the world map. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the PCOS burden in the next 20 years.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the number of PCOS incidence in one year increased from 1.4 million in 1990 to 2.1 million in 2019 (54.3%). Only the EAPC estimates of incidence in the Region of the Americas decreased, and their aged-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) values were the highest in 1990 and 2019. There was no significant correlation between human development index (HDI) and EAPC. However, when HDI < 0.7, EAPC of incidence and prevalence was positively correlated with HDI, and when HDI > 0.7, EAPC of incidence and prevalence was negatively correlated with HDI. Countries with the middle level HDI have the highest increasing trend of ASIR and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR). The 10 to 19 years old group had the highest incidence counts of PCOS globally. Besides, the ARIMA and BAPC model showed the consistent increasing trend of the burden of PCOS.ConclusionIn order to better promote the early diagnosis and treatment, expert consensus and diagnosis criteria should be formulated according to the characteristics of different ethnic groups or regions. It is necessary to emphasize the early screening and actively develop targeted drugs for PCOS.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the effects of demographic drivers on lung cancer mortality trends is critical for lung cancer control. We have examined the drivers of lung cancer mortality at the global, regional, and national levels.MethodsData on lung cancer death and mortality were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for lung cancer and all-cause mortality were calculated to measure temporal trends in lung cancer from 1990 to 2019. Decomposition analysis was used to analyze the contributions of epidemiological and demographic drivers to lung cancer mortality.ResultsDespite a non-significant decrease in ASMR [EAPC = -0.31, 95% confidence interval (CI): -1.1 to 0.49], the number of deaths from lung cancer increased by 91.8% [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 74.5-109.0%] between 1990 and 2019. This increase was due to the changes in the number of deaths attributable to population aging (59.6%), population growth (56.7%), and non-GBD risks (3.49%) compared with 1990 data. Conversely, the number of lung cancer deaths due to GBD risks decreased by 19.8%, mainly due to tobacco (-12.66%), occupational risks (-3.52%), and air pollution (-3.47%). More lung cancer deaths (1.83%) were observed in most regions, which were due to high fasting plasma glucose levels. The temporal trend of lung cancer ASMR and the patterns of demographic drivers varied by region and gender. Significant associations were observed between the contributions of population growth, GBD risks and non-GBD risks (negative), population aging (positive), and ASMR in 1990, the sociodemographic index (SDI), and the human development index (HDI) in 2019.ConclusionPopulation aging and population growth increased global lung cancer deaths from 1990 to 2019, despite a decrease in age-specific lung cancer death rates due to GBD risks in most regions. A tailored strategy is needed to reduce the increasing burden of lung cancer due to outpacing demographic drivers of epidemiological change globally and in most regions, taking into account region- or gender-specific risk patterns.

Project description:ObjectivesTo study the molecular epidemiological characteristics of norovirus in children with acute gastroenteritis from 2017 to 2019.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on the medical data of children with acute gastroenteritis who were admitted to Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from January 2017 to December 2019. A total of 1 458 stool samples were collected from the children, and viral RNA was extracted. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction was used for gene amplification, sequencing, and genotype identification of the VP1 region of capsid protein in norovirus.ResultsAmong the 1 458 stool samples, 158 (10.8%) were positive for norovirus. There was no significant difference in the positive detection rate of norovirus between different years (P>0.05). Boys had a norovirus detection rate of 12.2% (105/860), which was significantly higher than that in girls (8.9%, 53/598) (P=0.043). The children aged 12 to <18 months had the highest norovirus detection rate (16.9%, 51/301). August, September, and October were the epidemic peak season. A total of 23 norovirus-positive samples were also positive for rotavirus. The norovirus detected were mainly GII type (97.5%, 154/158), and only 4 cases were GI type (2.5%, 4/158). The sequencing of the VP1 region of capsid protein in the positive samples showed that GII.4 (69.6%, 110/158) was the dominant genotype, among which 99 (62.7%, 99/158) were GII.4 Sydney 2012, followed by GII.3 (15.2%, 24/158), GII.2 (10.1%, 16/158), GII.6 (1.9%, 3/158), and GII.17 (0.6%, 1/158). GI.3 (1.3%, 2/158), GI.2 (0.6%, 1/158), and GI.5 (0.6%, 1/158) were rarely detected.ConclusionsNorovirus GII.4 Sydney 2012 was the major epidemic strain in the children with norovirus gastroenteritis from 2017 to 2019. Although norovirus infection can exist throughout the year, August to October is the peak period. During this period, norovirus surveillance and key population protection are strengthened to help prevent and control norovirus diarrhea.

Project description:BackgroundAccurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).MethodsUsing the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0-19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals.FindingsGlobally, in 2017, there were 11·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10·6-12·3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97·3% (97·3-97·3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2·7% (2·7-2·7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82·2% (82·1-82·2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50·3% (50·3-50·3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same locations. Cancers that are uncategorised in the current GBD framework comprised 26·5% (26·5-26·5) of global childhood cancer DALYs.InterpretationThe GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings. The use of DALY-based estimates is crucial in demonstrating that childhood cancer burden represents an important global cancer and child health concern.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC), and St. Baldrick's Foundation.

Dataset Information

The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets