Dataset Information

Predicting major bleeding among hospitalized patients using oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after discharge.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

Real-world predictors of major bleeding (MB) have been well-studied among warfarin users, but not among all direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) users diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF). Thus, our goal was to build a predictive model of MB for new users of all oral anticoagulants (OAC) with AF.

Methods

We identified patients hospitalized for any cause and discharged alive in the community from 2011 to 2017 with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF in Quebec's RAMQ and Med-Echo administrative databases. Cohort entry occurred at the first OAC claim. Patients were categorized according to OAC type. Outcomes were incident MB, gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), non-GI extracranial bleeding (NGIB) and intracranial bleeding within 1 year of follow-up. Covariates included age, sex, co-morbidities (within 3 years before cohort entry) and medication use (within 2 weeks before cohort entry). We used logistic-LASSO and adaptive logistic-LASSO regressions to identify MB predictors among OAC users. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for each model and a global model was selected. Subgroup analyses were performed for MB subtypes and OAC types.

Results

Our cohort consisted of 14,741 warfarin, 3,722 dabigatran, 6,722 rivaroxaban and 11,196 apixaban users aged 70-86 years old. The important MB predictors were age, prior MB and liver disease with ORs ranging from 1.37-1.64. The final model had a c-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.65) with adequate calibration. The GIB and NGIB models had similar c-statistics of 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64-0.70), respectively.

Conclusions

MB and MB subtype predictors were similar among DOAC and warfarin users. The predictors selected by our models and their discriminative potential are concordant with published data. Thus, these models can be useful tools for future pharmacoepidemiologic studies involving older oral anticoagulant users with AF.

SUBMITTER: Qazi JZ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928472 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting major bleeding among hospitalized patients using oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after discharge.

Qazi Jakub Z JZ Schnitzer Mireille E ME Côté Robert R Martel Marie-Josée MJ Dorais Marc M Perreault Sylvie S

PloS one 20210303 3

<h4>Aim</h4>Real-world predictors of major bleeding (MB) have been well-studied among warfarin users, but not among all direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) users diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF). Thus, our goal was to build a predictive model of MB for new users of all oral anticoagulants (OAC) with AF.<h4>Methods</h4>We identified patients hospitalized for any cause and discharged alive in the community from 2011 to 2017 with a primary or secondary diagnosis of AF in Quebec's RAMQ and Med-E ...[more]

PMID: 33657116

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Project description:BackgroundDespite direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) being safer than warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), major bleeding concerns persist. Most bleeding risk scores predate DOAC approval.ObjectivesThis study aimed to compare the Age, history of Bleeding, and non-bleeding related Hospitalisation [ABH] score's performance-derived for DOAC-treated patients-with those of 5 other scores (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation [ATRIA], Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly [>65 years], Drugs/alcohol concomitantly [HAS-BLED], Hepatic, Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re-Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke [HEMORR2HAGES], Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation [ORBIT-AF], and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 [doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [doubled]-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category [CHA2DS2-VASc]) in predicting DOAC-related major bleeding in patients with AF.MethodsIn this retrospective study of 2364 patients with nonvalvular AF on rivaroxaban or apixaban (median age, 68.3 years; 32.1% women), International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis-defined major bleeding (incidence, 4.1%; n = 97) was analyzed. C-statistics from time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for continuous risk scores were the primary comparison metric, but other metrics, such as decision curves, were also compared.ResultsAt 100 days, C-statistics were highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60); some significant differences favored ORBIT-AF. At 1100 days, C-statistics remained highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60 again), and ORBIT-AF had significantly higher C-statistics than those for all other risk scores (P < .05), except for ATRIA. At 2100 days, all C-statistics were <0.60 with no significant differences. Decision curves showed the greatest net benefit for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA at 100 days and for ATRIA at 1100 days, with no discernible net benefit for any of the scores at 2100 days.ConclusionORBIT-AF and ATRIA provided the best bleeding risk prediction within the first 1100 days. None of the 6 bleeding risk scores provided predictive benefit over 2100 days of DOAC treatment.

Project description:ImportanceMany patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) are at a high risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding due to conditions including older age; stage III to V chronic kidney disease (CKD); HAS-BLED (hypertension, kidney or liver disease, stroke history, prior bleeding, unstable international normalized ratio, age >65, drug or alcohol use) score of 3 or greater; corticosteroid, antiplatelet or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use; or GI conditions.ObjectiveTo compare the risk of stroke and/or systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding (MB) among patients with NVAF and high risk of GI bleeding who received non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) vs those who received warfarin.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included patients with NVAF who were 75 years and older; had stage III to V CKD; had an HAS-BLED score of 3 or greater; used corticosteroids, antiplatelets, or NSAIDs; or had GI conditions. Data were collected from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and 4 commercial insurance databases between January 1, 2012, and September 30, 2015. Data analysis was conducted from January 2012 to September 2015.ExposuresNew prescription for apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin between January 1, 2013, and September 30, 2015 (identification period).Main outcomes and measuresSix propensity score-matched cohorts were created to compare between study drugs. For the primary objective, Cox models were used to estimate stroke and/or SE and MB hazard ratios (HRs).ResultsA total of 381 054 patients (187 489 [49.2%] women) with NVAF and at least 1 high-risk GI bleeding factor were identified (HAS-BLED score ≥3: 284 527 [74.7%]; aged ≥75 years: 252 835 [66.4%]; corticosteroid, antiplatelet, or NSAID therapy: 107 675 [28.3%]; prior GI bleeding conditions: 74 818 [19.6%]; and stage III-V CKD: 56 892 [14.9%]). All NOACs were associated with a lower risk of stroke and/or SE vs warfarin (apixaban: HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.52-0.68; dabigatran: HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.64-0.88; rivaroxaban: HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.86). Compared with warfarin, apixaban and dabigatran were associated with a lower risk of MB (apixaban: HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.63; dabigatran: HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70-0.86), while rivaroxaban was associated with a higher risk (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.16).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study of patients with NVAF and high risk of GI bleed, NOACs were associated with lower rates of stroke and/or SE, but NOACs had varying risks of MB compared with warfarin. These results may help inform treatment options in this patient population.

Project description:Essentials Currently, DOACs are given at fixed doses and do not require laboratory monitoring. Direct oral anticoagulant-specific measurements were performed at trough and peak. Patients who developed bleeding events showed higher DOAC plasma levels at peak. This study suggests the need of a more accurate DOAC dose assessment.BackgroundDirect oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are administered at fixed dose. The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship between DOAC C-trough or C-peak plasma levels and bleeding complications in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).MethodsFive hundred sixty five consecutive naive NVAF patients were enrolled. The DOAC measurements at C-trough and at C-peak (available in 411 patients) were performed at steady state, within the first month of treatment. Major bleeding (MB), clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNMB), and minor bleeding (MinB), occurring during 1 year of follow-up after blood sampling, were recorded. For each DOAC, interval of C-trough and C-peak levels was subdivided into four equal classes and results were attributed to these classes; the median values of results were also calculated.ResultsTwo hundred eight patients were on apixaban, 185 on dabigatran, and 172 on rivaroxaban. For 1-[qqqdeletezzz] year follow up for all patients, we observed: 19 MB (3.36%), 6 CRNMB (1.06%), and 47 MinB (8.31%). The prevalence of bleeding patients with anticoagulant levels in the upper classes of C-peak activity (II + III + IV) was higher than that in the lowest class. Normalized results of C-peak levels were higher in patients with bleeding than in those without bleeding.ConclusionsBleeding complications during DOAC treatment were more frequent among atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with higher C-peak anticoagulant levels. In addition to a previous study that showed an increased risk of thrombotic complications in the patients with low C-trough levels, this study seems to indicate that patients with NVAF on DOACs would need a more accurate definition of their optimal therapeutic window.

Project description:Background Data on the effectiveness and safety of oral anticoagulant (OAC) agents in very elderly nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with high bleeding risk are lacking. Objectives This study examined 2-year outcomes and effects of OAC agents among these patients using the ANAFIE (All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly) registry (N = 32,275) data. Methods Patients were classified into high-risk (age: ≥80 years; CHADS2 score: ≥2; and presence of ≥1 bleeding risk factor: creatinine clearance of 15-30 mL/minute, prior bleeding at critical sites, body weight of ≤45 kg, or continuous antiplatelet use) and reference groups. Results In the high-risk (n = 7,104) and reference (n = 25,171) group patients, 89.0% and 93.4%, respectively, used OAC agents. Of these, respectively, 30.1% and 24.2% used warfarin, and 58.9% and 69.1% used direct-acting OAC (DOAC) agents. Compared with the reference group, the high-risk group had higher incidences of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, gastrointestinal bleeding, cardiovascular events, and all-cause death. In the high-risk group, DOAC agent use vs nonuse of OAC agents was associated with reduced incidences of stroke/systemic embolism (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.36-0.79) and all-cause death (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.52-0.81) but not with major bleeding (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.63-1.89). DOAC agents were superior to warfarin in effectiveness and safety. For high-risk patients, history of major bleeding, severe liver dysfunction, and falls within 1 year were independent risk factors for major bleeding. Conclusions High-risk elderly nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients had higher event incidences. DOAC agents were associated with reduced risk of stroke/systemic embolism and all-cause death vs nonuse of OAC agents or warfarin. (Prospective Observational Study in Late-Stage Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation [ANAFIE registry]; UMIN000024006) Central Illustration

Dataset Information

Predicting major bleeding among hospitalized patients using oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after discharge.

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting major bleeding among hospitalized patients using oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after discharge.

Similar Datasets

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