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The role of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among Kenyan agro-pastoralists.

ABSTRACT: The increased exposure of pastoralist communities in East Africa to climatic shocks has focused attention on the resilience of these communities. Although many social scientists directly or indirectly infer versions of homo-economic agents, increasing evidence in development behavioral economics, indicates that such assumptions may be misplaced. Despite on-going advances in the science concerning the effects of stress on dynamic changes in short-term cognitive capacity, there remains limited understanding of the effects of changes in cognitive capacity on economic decision making. The present research empirically evaluates the drivers of short-term changes in cognitive capacity-cognitive ability and heuristic use-and its effect on crop and livestock expenditure among predominantly poor Kenyan agro-pastoralists. Three rounds of cognition and survey data from Samburu, Kenya is analysed. The primary data was collected at the end of the 2015-16 East African drought and covers an 11-month period between October 2016 and September 2017. Dynamic panel estimation, employing maximum likelihood, is used on balanced and unbalanced data. Results indicate that fluid intelligence and heuristic use, along with literacy and stressors, affect crop expenditure. Perceptions of scarcity, relative to prior expectations, are also identified as an important determinant of short-term changes in cognitive ability. These results underscore the importance of better understanding the effects of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among the poor.

SUBMITTER: Iles RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928487 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The role of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among Kenyan agro-pastoralists.

Iles Richard A RA Surve Aditi A Kagundu Samuel S Gatumu Haniel H

PloS one 20210303 3

The increased exposure of pastoralist communities in East Africa to climatic shocks has focused attention on the resilience of these communities. Although many social scientists directly or indirectly infer versions of homo-economic agents, increasing evidence in development behavioral economics, indicates that such assumptions may be misplaced. Despite on-going advances in the science concerning the effects of stress on dynamic changes in short-term cognitive capacity, there remains limited und ...[more]

PMID: 33657131

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Out-of-sample forecasts are used to evaluate the predictive adequacy of a previously published national model of the relationship between smoking behavior and real per capita health care expenditure using state level aggregate data. In the previously published analysis, the elasticities between changes in state adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker and healthcare expenditures were 0.118 and 0.108 This new analysis provides evidence that the model forecasts out-of-sample well. METHODS:Out-of-sample predictive performance was used to find the best specification of trend variables and the best model to bridge a break in survey data used in the analysis. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to calculate forecast intervals for the effect of changes in smoking behavior on expected real per capita healthcare expenditures. RESULTS:The model specification produced good-out-of-sample forecasts and stable recursive regression parameter estimates spanning the break in survey methodology. In 2014, a 1% relative reduction in adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker decreased real per capita healthcare expenditure by 0.104% and 0.113% the following year, respectively (elasticity). A permanent relative reduction of 5% reduces expected real per capita healthcare expenditures $99 (95% CI $44, $154) in the next year and $31.5 billion for the entire US (in 2014 dollars), holding other factors constant. The reductions accumulate linearly for at least five years following annual permanent decreases of 5% each year. Given the limitations of time series modelling in a relatively short time series, the effect of changes in smoking behavior may occur over several years, even though the model contains only one lag for the explanatory variables. CONCLUSION:Reductions in smoking produce substantial savings in real per capita healthcare expenditure in short to medium term. A 5% relative drop in smoking prevalence (about a 0.87% reduction in absolute prevalence) combined with a 5% drop in consumption per remaining smoker (about 16 packs/year) would be followed by a $31.5 billion reduction in healthcare expenditure (in 2014 dollars).

Project description:BackgroundBrucellosis is an infectious zoonotic disease that poses serious health threats around the world including Uganda. Brucellosis is caused by Brucella spp., the bacteria being transmitted via contact through skin breaks, via inhalation, or orally through the consumption of raw milk and other dairy products. The aim of this study was to investigate self-reported prevalence, knowledge, and perceptions towards brucellosis transmission, within agro-pastoralist communities in the Nakasongola district, central Uganda.MethodsThis study employed a cross-sectional survey design. A semi-structured questionnaire was developed and administered to 398 participants selected through convenience sampling method. The survey gathered information on socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge of brucellosis transmission, symptoms, preventive measures, and self-reported prevalence of brucellosis. Qualitative data involved the use of six focus group discussions, identifying factors for transmission based on their perceived level of risk or impact using ranking by proportional piling.ResultsA majority (99.2%, n = 398) had heard about brucellosis and 71.2% were aware of the zoonotic nature of the disease. There were varied responses regarding transmission routes, symptoms, and preventive measures. Self-reported prevalence was relatively high (55.5%). Following adjusted analysis, factors such as subcounty, source of income, knowledge about symptoms of brucellosis, whether brucellosis is treatable, perception, and living close to animals were statistically significant. Participants from Wabinyonyi had 2.7 higher odds of reporting brucellosis than those from Nabiswera, aOR = 2.7, 95%CI 1.4-5.5. Crop farming and livestock had much higher odds of reporting brucellosis than those earning from casual sources, aOR = 8.5, 95%C 1.8-40.1 and aOR = 14.4, 95%CI 3.1-67.6, respectively. Those who had knowledge about symptoms had 6.9 higher odds of reporting brucellosis than who mentioned fever, aOR = 4.5, 95%CI 2.3-18.3. Likewise, living close with animals and handling aborted fetuses (aOR = 0.4, 95%CI: 0.17-0.86), (aOR = 0.2,95% CI: 0.07-0.0.42,) had significantly lower odds for self-reported prevalence compared to those who believed did not cause brucellosis. Risk factors identified included, handling of aborted fetuses and living in close proximity with animals. Overall, there was a moderate statistical agreement in the ranking across the focus groups discussion (Wc = 0.48, p < 0.01; n = 6).ConclusionWhile awareness of brucellosis is high in the community, understanding of the transmission routes, clinical symptoms, and preventive measures varied. Investigating the understanding and assessing knowledge, perceptions and self-reported prevalence in this region indicated a necessity for risk communication strategies and community-based interventions to better control brucellosis transmission.

Dataset Information

The role of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among Kenyan agro-pastoralists.

Publications

The role of short-term changes in cognitive capacity on economic expenditure among Kenyan agro-pastoralists.

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