Dataset Information

Association between meteorological factors and the prevalence dynamics of Japanese encephalitis.

ABSTRACT: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is an acute infectious disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and is transmitted by mosquitoes. Meteorological conditions are known to play a pivotal role in the spread of JEV. In this study, a zero-inflated generalised additive model and a long short-term memory model were used to assess the relationship between the meteorological factors and population density of Culex tritaeniorhynchus as well as the incidence of JE and to predict the prevalence dynamics of JE, respectively. The incidence of JE in the previous month, the mean air temperature and the average of relative humidity had positive effects on the outbreak risk and intensity. Meanwhile, the density of all mosquito species in livestock sheds (DMSL) only affected the outbreak risk. Moreover, the region-specific prediction model of JE was developed in Chongqing by used the Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the JE dynamics and helps the local government establish precise prevention and control measures.

SUBMITTER: Tu T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928514 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Association between meteorological factors and the prevalence dynamics of Japanese encephalitis.

Tu Taotian T Xu Keqiang K Xu Lei L Gao Yuan Y Zhou Ying Y He Yaming Y Liu Yang Y Liu Qiyong Q Ji Hengqing H Tang Wenge W

PloS one 20210303 3

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is an acute infectious disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and is transmitted by mosquitoes. Meteorological conditions are known to play a pivotal role in the spread of JEV. In this study, a zero-inflated generalised additive model and a long short-term memory model were used to assess the relationship between the meteorological factors and population density of Culex tritaeniorhynchus as well as the incidence of JE and to predict the prevalence dyn ...[more]

PMID: 33657174

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Project description:The emergence of an outbreak of Monkeypox disease (MPXD) is caused by a contagious zoonotic Monkeypox virus (MPXV) that has spread globally. Yet, there is no study investigating the effect of climatic changes on MPXV transmission. Thus, studies on the changing epidemiology, evolving nature of the virus, and ecological niche are highly paramount. Determination of the role of potential meteorological drivers including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, dew point, wind speed, and surface pressure is beneficial to understand the MPXD outbreak. This study examines the changes in MPXV cases over time while assessing the meteorological characteristics that could impact these disparities from the onset of the global outbreak. To conduct this data-based research, several well-accepted statistical techniques including Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) were applied to delineate the correlation of the meteorological factors on global daily Monkeypox cases. Data on MPXV cases including affected countries spanning from 6 May 2022, to 9 November 2022, from global databases and meteorological data were used to evaluate the developed models. According to the ARIMAX model, the results showed that temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure have a positive impact [(51.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): -274.55 to 377.68), (17.32, 95% CI: -83.71 to 118.35) and (23.42, 95% CI: -9.90 to 56.75), respectively] on MPXV cases. In addition, dew/frost point, precipitation, and wind speed show a significant negative impact on MPXD cases. The Prophet model showed a significant correlation with rising MPXD cases, although the trend predicts peak values while the overall trend increases. This underscores the importance of immediate and appropriate preventive measures (timely preparedness and proactive control strategies) with utmost priority against MPXD including awareness-raising programs, the discovery, and formulation of effective vaccine candidate(s), prophylaxis and therapeutic regimes, and management strategies.

Dataset Information

Association between meteorological factors and the prevalence dynamics of Japanese encephalitis.

Publications

Association between meteorological factors and the prevalence dynamics of Japanese encephalitis.

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