Dataset Information

AI in Healthcare: Time-Series Forecasting Using Statistical, Neural, and Ensemble Architectures.

ABSTRACT: Both statistical and neural methods have been proposed in the literature to predict healthcare expenditures. However, less attention has been given to comparing predictions from both these methods as well as ensemble approaches in the healthcare domain. The primary objective of this paper was to evaluate different statistical, neural, and ensemble techniques in their ability to predict patients' weekly average expenditures on certain pain medications. Two statistical models, persistence (baseline) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and an ensemble model combining predictions of the ARIMA, MLP, and LSTM models were calibrated to predict the expenditures on two different pain medications. In the MLP and LSTM models, we compared the influence of shuffling of training data and dropout of certain nodes in MLPs and nodes and recurrent connections in LSTMs in layers during training. Results revealed that the ensemble model outperformed the persistence, ARIMA, MLP, and LSTM models across both pain medications. In general, not shuffling the training data and adding the dropout helped the MLP models and shuffling the training data and not adding the dropout helped the LSTM models across both medications. We highlight the implications of using statistical, neural, and ensemble methods for time-series forecasting of outcomes in the healthcare domain.

SUBMITTER: Kaushik S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7931939 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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AI in Healthcare: Time-Series Forecasting Using Statistical, Neural, and Ensemble Architectures.

Kaushik Shruti S Choudhury Abhinav A Sheron Pankaj Kumar PK Dasgupta Nataraj N Natarajan Sayee S Pickett Larry A LA Dutt Varun V

Frontiers in big data 20200319

Both statistical and neural methods have been proposed in the literature to predict healthcare expenditures. However, less attention has been given to comparing predictions from both these methods as well as ensemble approaches in the healthcare domain. The primary objective of this paper was to evaluate different statistical, neural, and ensemble techniques in their ability to predict patients' weekly average expenditures on certain pain medications. Two statistical models, persistence (baselin ...[more]

PMID: 33693379

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Project description:In this paper, we introduce a novel model selection approach to time series forecasting. For linear stationary processes, such as AR processes, the direction of time is independent of the model parameters. By combining theoretical principles of time-reversibility in time series with conventional modeling approaches such as information criteria, we construct a criterion that employs the backwards prediction (backcast) as a proxy for the forecast. Hereby, we aim to adopt a theoretically grounded, data-driven approach to model selection. The novel criterion is named the backwards validated information criterion (BVIC). The BVIC identifies suitable models by trading off a measure of goodness-of-fit and a models ability to predict backwards. We test the performance of the BVIC by conducting experiments on synthetic and real data. In each experiment, the BVIC is examined in contrast to conventionally employed criteria. Our experimental results suggest that the BVIC has comparable performance as conventional information criteria. Specifically, in most of the experiments performed, we did not find statistically significant differences between the forecast error of the BVIC under certain parameterizations and that of the different information criteria. Nonetheless, it is worth emphasizing that the BVIC guarantees are established by design where the model order penalization term depends on strong mathematical properties of time-reversible time series forecasting properties and a finite data assessment. In particular, the penalization term is replaced by a weighted trade-off between functional dimensions pertaining to forecasting.That said, we observed that the BVIC recovered more accurately the real order of the underlying process than the other criteria, which rely on a static penalization of the model order. Lastly, leveraging the latter property we perform the assessment of the order model (or, memory) of time series pertaining to epileptic seizures recorded using electrocorticographic data. Our results provide converging evidence that the order of the model increases during the epileptic events.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Morbidity and mortality rates associated with heart failure remain high. A wide variety of demographic and clinical factors as well as biomarkers are associated with increased mortality rates. Despite this, most multivariate predictive models for heart failure mortality have predictive accuracies characterized by a C-statistic (area under the receiver operating curve) of ?0.74. METHODS AND RESULTS:We analyzed data on 963 patients enrolled in the Vesnarinone Evaluation of Survival Trial (VEST), including circulating levels of 2 cytokines (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin-6) and their receptors sampled at baseline and at 8, 16, and 24 weeks. We built multivariate logistic regression models by using standard clinical variables and time-series of cytokine and cytokine receptor levels, using independent components analysis to handle collinearity among cytokine measurements, and L2-penalized stepwise regression for variable selection. We also built ensemble models with these data, using gentle boosting. Our multivariate logistic regression model using time-series cytokine measurements predicts 1-year mortality rates significantly better (P=0.001) than the baseline model, with a C-statistic of 0.81±0.03. Without the cytokines, the baseline model has a C-statistic of 0.73±0.03, and, with only baseline cytokine and cytokine receptor levels added, the model has a C-statistic of 0.74±0.04. An ensemble model of 100 decision stumps with serial cytokine measurements has a significantly better (P=0.04) C-statistic of 0.84±0.02. An ensemble model with baseline cytokine data and without the serial measurements has a C-statistic of 0.74±0.04. CONCLUSIONS:Significant gains in accuracy of one year mortality prediction in chronic heart failure can be obtained by using logistic regression models that incorporate serial measurements of biomarkers such as cytokine and cytokine receptor levels. Ensemble models capture inherent variability in large patient populations, and boost predictive accuracy through the use of time-series measurements.

Dataset Information

AI in Healthcare: Time-Series Forecasting Using Statistical, Neural, and Ensemble Architectures.

Publications

AI in Healthcare: Time-Series Forecasting Using Statistical, Neural, and Ensemble Architectures.

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