Dataset Information

CoBiD-net: a tailored deep learning ensemble model for time series forecasting of covid-19

ABSTRACT: The pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has left the world to a standstill by creating a calamitous situation. To mitigate this devastating effect the inception of artificial intelligence into medical health care is mandatory. This study aims to present the educational perspective of Covid-19 and forecast the number of confirmed and death cases in the USA, India, and Brazil along with the discussion of endothelial dysfunction in epithelial cells and Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 receptor (ACE2) with the Covid-19. Three different deep learning based experimental setups have been framed to forecast Covid-19. Models are (i) Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) (ii) Convolutional LSTM (iii) Proposed ensemble of Convolutional and Bi-directional LSTM network are known as CoBiD-Net ensemble. The educational perspective of Covid-19 has been given along with an architectural discussion of multi-organ failure due to intrusion of Covid-19 with the cell receptors of the human body. Different classification metrics have been calculated using all three models. Proposed CoBiD-Net ensemble model outperforms the other two models with respect to accuracy and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Using CoBiD-Net ensemble, accuracy for Covid-19 cases ranges from 98.10 to 99.13% with MAPE ranges from 0.87 to 1.90. This study will help the countries to know the severity of Covid-19 concerning education in the future along with forecasting of Covid-19 cases and human body interaction with the Covid-19 to make it the self-replicating phenomena.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41324-021-00408-3.

SUBMITTER: Shastri S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8196282 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly altered the global health and medical landscape. In response to the outbreak, Chinese hospitals have established 24-hour fever clinics to serve patients with COVID-19. The emergence of these clinics and the impact of successive epidemics have led to a surge in visits, placing pressure on hospital resource allocation and scheduling. Therefore, accurate prediction of outpatient visits is essential for informed decision-making in hospital management.ObjectiveHourly visits to fever clinics can be characterized as a long-sequence time series in high frequency, which also exhibits distinct patterns due to the particularity of pediatric treatment behavior in an epidemic context. This study aimed to build models to forecast fever clinic visit with outstanding prediction accuracy and robust generalization in forecast horizons. In addition, this study hopes to provide a research paradigm for time-series forecasting problems, which involves an exploratory analysis revealing data patterns before model development.MethodsAn exploratory analysis, including graphical analysis, autocorrelation analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition, was conducted to reveal the seasonality and structural patterns of the retrospective fever clinic visit data. The data were found to exhibit multiseasonality and nonlinearity. On the basis of these results, an ensemble of time-series analysis methods, including individual models and their combinations, was validated on the data set. Root mean square error and mean absolute error were used as accuracy metrics, with the cross-validation of rolling forecasting origin conducted across different forecast horizons.ResultsHybrid models generally outperformed individual models across most forecast horizons. A novel model combination, the hybrid neural network autoregressive (NNAR)-seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess forecasting (STLF), was identified as the optimal model for our forecasting task, with the best performance in all accuracy metrics (root mean square error=20.1, mean absolute error=14.3) for the 15-days-ahead forecasts and an overall advantage for forecast horizons that were 1 to 30 days ahead.ConclusionsAlthough forecast accuracy tends to decline with an increasing forecast horizon, the hybrid NNAR-STLF model is applicable for short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts owing to its ability to fit multiseasonality (captured by the STLF component) and nonlinearity (captured by the NNAR component). The model identified in this study is also applicable to hospitals in other regions with similar epidemic outpatient configurations or forecasting tasks whose data conform to long-sequence time series in high frequency exhibiting multiseasonal and nonlinear patterns. However, as external variables and disruptive events were not accounted for, the model performance declined slightly following changes in the COVID-19 containment policy in China. Future work may seek to improve accuracy by incorporating external variables that characterize moving events or other factors as well as by adding data from different organizations to enhance algorithm generalization.

Project description:Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has gained increasing attention as a complementary tool to conventional surveillance methods with potential for significant resource and labour savings when used for public health monitoring. Using WBE datasets to train machine learning algorithms and develop predictive models may also facilitate early warnings for the spread of outbreaks. The challenges associated with using machine learning for the analysis of WBE datasets and timeseries forecasting of COVID-19 were explored by running Random Forest (RF) algorithms on WBE datasets across 108 sites in five regions: Scotland, Catalonia, Ohio, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. This method uses measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragment concentration in samples taken at the inlets of wastewater treatment plants, providing insight into the prevalence of infection in upstream wastewater catchment populations. RF's forecasting performance at each site was quantitatively evaluated by determining mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values, which was used to highlight challenges affecting future implementations of RF for WBE forecasting efforts. Performance was generally poor using WBE datasets from Catalonia, Scotland, and Ohio with 'reasonable' or better forecasts constituting 0 %, 5 %, and 0 % of these regions' forecasts, respectively. RF's performance was much stronger with WBE data from the Netherlands and Switzerland, which provided 55 % and 45 % 'reasonable' or better forecasts respectively. Sampling frequency and training set size were identified as key factors contributing to accuracy, while inclusion of too many unnecessary variables (or e.g., flow data) was identified as a contributing factor to poor performance. The contribution of catchment population on forecast accuracy was more ambiguous. This study determined that the factors governing RF's forecast performance are complicated and interrelated, which presents challenges for further work in this space. A sufficiently accurate further iteration of the tool discussed within this study would provide significant but varying value for public health departments for monitoring future, or ongoing outbreaks, assisting the implementation of on-time health response measures.

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CoBiD-net: a tailored deep learning ensemble model for time series forecasting of covid-19

Supplementary Information

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