Dataset Information

Contraceptive use and needs among adolescent women aged 15-19: Regional and global estimates and projections from 1990 to 2030 from a Bayesian hierarchical modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Expanding access to contraception and ensuring that need for family planning is satisfied are essential for achieving universal access to reproductive healthcare services, as called for in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. To quantify the gaps that remain in meeting needs among adolescents, this study provides a harmonised data set and global estimates and projections of family planning indicators for adolescents aged 15-19 years. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of family-planning indicators among women aged 15-19 from 754 nationally representative surveys. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model with country-specific annual trends to estimate contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), for 185 countries, taking into account changes in proportions married or in a union and differences in sexual activity among unmarried women across countries. Among 300 million women aged 15-19 years in 2019, 29.8 million (95% UI 24.6-41.7) use any contraception, and 15.0 million (95% UI 12.1-29.2) have unmet need for family planning. Population growth and the postponement of marriage influence trends in the absolute number of adolescents using contraception or experiencing unmet need. Large gaps remain in meeting family-planning needs among adolescents. The proportion of the need satisfied by modern methods, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicator 3.7.1, was 59.2% (95% UI 44.8-67.2) globally among adolescents, lower compared to 75.7% (95% UI 73.2%-78.0%) among all women age 15-49 years. It was less than one half of adolescents in need in Western Asia and Northern Africa (38.7%, 95%UI = 20.9-56.5), Central and Southern Asia (43.5%, 95%UI = 36.6-52.3), and sub-Saharan Africa (45.6%, 95%UI = 42.2-49.0). The main limitations of the study are: (i) the uncertainty surrounding estimates for countries with limited or biased data is large; and (ii) underreporting of contraceptive use and needs is likely, especially among unmarried adolescents.

SUBMITTER: Kantorova V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7932081 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Contraceptive use and needs among adolescent women aged 15-19: Regional and global estimates and projections from 1990 to 2030 from a Bayesian hierarchical modelling study.

Kantorová Vladimíra V Wheldon Mark C MC Dasgupta Aisha N Z ANZ Ueffing Philipp P Castanheira Helena Cruz HC

PloS one 20210304 3

Expanding access to contraception and ensuring that need for family planning is satisfied are essential for achieving universal access to reproductive healthcare services, as called for in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. To quantify the gaps that remain in meeting needs among adolescents, this study provides a harmonised data set and global estimates and projections of family planning indicators for adolescents aged 15-19 years. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of family-planning ...[more]

PMID: 33661965

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Expanding access to contraception and ensuring that need for family planning is satisfied are essential for achieving universal access to reproductive healthcare services, as called for in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Monitoring progress towards these outcomes is well established for women of reproductive age (15-49 years) who are married or in a union (MWRA). For those who are not, limited data and variability in data sources and indicator definitions make monitoring challenging. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide data and harmonised estimates that enable monitoring for all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) (WRA), including unmarried women (UWRA). We seek to quantify the gaps that remain in meeting family-planning needs among all WRA. METHODS AND FINDINGS:In a systematic analysis, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of family-planning indicators among WRA from 1,247 nationally representative surveys. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model with country-specific time trends to estimate these indicators, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), for 185 countries. We produced estimates from 1990 to 2019 and projections from 2019 to 2030 of contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning among MWRA, UWRA, and all WRA, taking into account the changing proportions that were married or in a union. The model accounted for differences in the prevalence of sexual activity among UWRA across countries. Among 1.9 billion WRA in 2019, 1.11 billion (95% UI 1.07-1.16) have need for family planning; of those, 842 million (95% UI 800-893) use modern contraception, and 270 million (95% UI 246-301) have unmet need for modern methods. Globally, UWRA represented 15.7% (95% UI 13.4%-19.4%) of all modern contraceptive users and 16.0% (95% UI 12.9%-22.1%) of women with unmet need for modern methods in 2019. The proportion of the need for family planning satisfied by modern methods, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicator 3.7.1, was 75.7% (95% UI 73.2%-78.0%) globally, yet less than half of the need for family planning was met in Middle and Western Africa. Projections to 2030 indicate an increase in the number of women with need for family planning to 1.19 billion (95% UI 1.13-1.26) and in the number of women using modern contraception to 918 million (95% UI 840-1,001). The main limitations of the study are as follows: (i) the uncertainty surrounding estimates for countries with little or no data is large; and (ii) although some adjustments were made, underreporting of contraceptive use and needs is likely, especially among UWRA. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we observed that large gaps remain in meeting family-planning needs. The projected increase in the number of women with need for family planning will create challenges to expand family-planning services fast enough to fulfil the growing need. Monitoring of family-planning indicators for all women, not just MWRA, is essential for accurately monitoring progress towards universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services-including family planning-by 2030 in the SDG era with its emphasis on 'leaving no one behind.'

Project description:BackgroundSpinal cord injuries, often resulting from spine fractures, can lead to severe lifelong symptoms such as paraplegia and even mortality. Over the past few decades, there has been a concerning increase in the annual incidence and mortality rates of spinal cord injuries, which has also placed a growing financial strain on healthcare systems. This review aims to offer a comprehensive overview of spinal cord injuries by estimating their global incidence, prevalence, and the impact in terms of years lived with disability, using data obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.MethodIn this study, we utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, a widely recognized source for global health data. Our methodology involved estimating the global incidence and prevalence of spinal cord injuries while also assessing the impact on years lived with a disability. We analyzed this data comprehensively to identify patterns and trends and made predictions.FindingThis research delved into the evolving trends in the global burden of spinal cord injuries, identified key risk factors, and examined variations in incidence and disability across different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels and age groups. Briefly, in 2019, the global incidence and burden of YLDs of SCI significantly increased compared to 1990. While males had higher incidence rates compared to females. Falls were identified as the primary cause of SCI. Trend projections up to 2030 revealed a slight decrease in ASIR for males, an upward trend in age-specific incidence rates for both sexes and a similar pattern in age-standardized YLD rates. Additionally, our findings provided crucial groundwork for shaping future policies and healthcare initiatives, with the goal of mitigating the burden of spinal cord injuries, enhancing patient outcomes, and fortifying prevention efforts.InterpretationUnderstanding the global burden of spinal cord injuries is essential for designing effective healthcare policies and prevention strategies. With the alarming increase in prevalence rates and their significant impact on individuals and healthcare systems, this research contributes vital insights to guide future efforts in reducing the incidence of spinal cord injuries, improving the quality of life for affected individuals, and reducing the economic burden on healthcare systems worldwide.

Project description:BackgroundBladder cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths all over the world. Epidemiological studies of bladder cancer are therefore crucial for policy making. This study was carried out to describe the characteristics of changes in the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age group, gender, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) and to simultaneously project future trends up to 2030.MethodsIncidence and mortality trends in bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 were described based on data and methodologies from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The data also allowed the future trends of bladder cancer incidence and mortality to be predicted by ARIMA model. Trends were analyzed by age group, gender, and SDI. Projections to 2030 were sub-analyzed by SDI countries. R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3), and SPSS (version 22.0) were used throughout the process.ResultsGlobally, in 2016, there were 437,442 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 426,709-447,912] new bladder cancer cases and 186,199 (95% UI, 180,453-191,686) bladder cancer-associated deaths. Between 1990 and 2016, changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of bladder cancer decreased by 5.91% from 7.11 (95% UI, 6.93-7.27) in 1990 to 6.69 (95% UI, 6.52-6.85) in 2016. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 3.58 (95% UI, 3.49-3.68) to 2.94 (95% UI, 2.85-3.03) over the same period of time. In future, the greatest occurrence of bladder cancer will be in high SDI countries, followed by high-middle SDI countries. Moreover, bladder cancer incidence rates may increase substantially in middle SDI countries, while the incidence rates will remain relatively stable for men and women in other SDI countries. From 2017 to 2030, bladder cancer deaths will continue to increase in low SDI countries, while deaths in other SDI countries will continue to decrease.ConclusionsThere was a regional difference in the incidence and mortality trends of bladder cancer between 1990 and 2016. Overall, the situation is not optimistic. From 2017 to 2030, the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to rise, especially in high and high-middle SDI countries, where decision-makers should propose appropriate policies on the screening and prevention of bladder cancer.

Project description:Estimates of pregnancy incidence by intention status and outcome indicate how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations, and can be used to monitor the impact of family-planning programmes. We estimate global, regional, and subregional pregnancy rates by intention status and outcome for 1990-2014.We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the unintended pregnancy rate is a function of the distribution of women across subgroups defined by marital status and contraceptive need and use, and of the risk of unintended pregnancy in each subgroup. Data included numbers of births and of women estimated by the UN Population Division, recently published abortion incidence estimates, and findings from surveys of women on the percentage of births or pregnancies that were unintended. Some 298 datapoints on the intention status of births or pregnancies were obtained for 105 countries.Worldwide, an estimated 44% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 42-48) of pregnancies were unintended in 2010-14. The unintended pregnancy rate declined by 30% (90% UI 21-39) in developed regions, from 64 (59-81) per 1000 women aged 15-44 years in 1990-94 to 45 (42-56) in 2010-14. In developing regions, the unintended pregnancy rate fell 16% (90% UI 5-24), from 77 (74-88) per 1000 women aged 15-44 years to 65 (62-76). Whereas the decline in the unintended pregnancy rate in developed regions coincided with a declining abortion rate, the decline in developing regions coincided with a declining unintended birth rate. In 2010-14, 59% (90% UI 54-65) of unintended pregnancies ended in abortion in developed regions, as did 55% (52-60) of unintended pregnancies in developing regions.The unintended pregnancy rate remains substantially higher in developing regions than in developed regions. Sexual and reproductive health services are needed to help women avoid unintended pregnancies, and to ensure healthy outcomes for those who do experience such pregnancies.Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and UK Aid from the UK Government.

Dataset Information

Contraceptive use and needs among adolescent women aged 15-19: Regional and global estimates and projections from 1990 to 2030 from a Bayesian hierarchical modelling study.

Publications

Contraceptive use and needs among adolescent women aged 15-19: Regional and global estimates and projections from 1990 to 2030 from a Bayesian hierarchical modelling study.

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